BYU vs. Utah Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
70% chance to win
- Utah should stay on the field on 3rd down. Utah is top-10 (1st) in 3rd down conversion, and BYU is bottom-40 (105th) in 3rd downs allowed.
- Utah's offense should move it. Utah is top-10 (2nd) in success rate, and BYU is middle of the pack (78th) in success rate allowed.
BYU at Utah
Projected score: BYU 25, Utah 29 (total 54).SP+: Utah by 3.8, 61% chance to win.PRIME: Utah by 5.1.
- Rivalry
- Holy War
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET
- Where
- Rice-Eccles Stadium
- Line
- Utah −3, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 51.5, down 3.
- Series
- Utah leads 59–34–4
- Last meeting
- BYU 24–21 in 2025
- BYU injuries
- LJ Martin (RB), out; Evan Johnson (CB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Utah by 3.8 | 61% | 54 |
| PRIME | Utah by 5.1 | 64% | |
| Elo | Utah | 84% | |
| The line | Utah −3 | 48.5, opened 51.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, BYU or Utah?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide BYU vs. Utah?
All three ratings favor Utah, by 3.8 to 5.1 points. Utah's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 1st in 3rd down conversion, against BYU's 3rd down defense at 105th. BYU's way back in is its pass protection, 3rd in sacks allowed per dropback, against Utah's pass rush at 104th.
BYU with the ball
Utah with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for BYU and Utah?
BYU
- LJ Martin (RB), out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31). Lower-body injury at TCU on Oct. 3; ESPN's Pete Thamel reported four to six weeks. Reports since conflict on his return, and the Big 12 report lists him out for the Oct. 31 game. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Evan Johnson (CB), out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31). Ankle, carried off after the Oct. 24 double-overtime loss to UCF. Kalani Sitake expects him to miss Arizona State, says it isn't season-ending, and has Mississippi State transfer Jayven Williams starting (SI, Yahoo Sports). (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Jonathan Kabeya (#2), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Pierson Watson (#23), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Seth Shigg (#39), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kendal Wall (#46), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Utah
- Tayson Reid (#42), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kelvin Obot (#55), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How BYU and Utah compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; BYU and Utah are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How BYU's and Utah's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsUtah 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate BYU and Utah?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Utah 1.3 points better (10th to 13th). PRIME also has Utah ahead, by 2.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Utah ahead (7th to 32nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedUtah 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
BYU's offense ranks 19th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Utah defense it faces ranks 19th in EPA per play allowed. Utah's offense ranks 21st against BYU's 41st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Utah's run game: 7th in adjusted EPA per rush, against BYU's 52nd-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUtah 7–1
Who's more efficient, BYU or Utah?
BYU is better running (5th in EPA per rush) than throwing (33rd). Utah's run defense ranks 30th, so that's an edge. Utah is better running (2nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (32nd). BYU's run defense ranks 46th, so that's an edge. On third down, BYU has the edge: its offense ranks 6th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 106th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringUtah 2–0
Who scores more, BYU or Utah?
BYU outscores FBS opponents by 13.6 a game, and Utah by 23.0. BYU's offense ranks 42nd in scoring, and the Utah defense it faces ranks 15th in points allowed. Utah's offense ranks 11th against BYU's 25th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseUtah 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
BYU has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 22nd, against a defense ranked 33rd in yards per carry allowed. Utah's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, and BYU's defense ranks 105th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUtah 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
BYU's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 54th in interception rate, and Utah's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (99th). Utah's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 29th in explosive plays allowed, and BYU's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (68th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontUtah 7–5
Who wins up front?
Utah has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where BYU ranks 2nd and Utah 71st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUtah 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: BYU is +0.3 a game and Utah +0.4.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentBYU 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Utah has the more talented roster (58th in the 247Sports talent composite; BYU is 59th). Utah also plays further above its talent: +15.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to BYU's +15.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyUtah 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Utah's roster is valued at $22.1M, BYU's at $22.1M. Utah also plays better per dollar: +10.6 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +9.4 for BYU.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSUtah 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
BYU is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.1). Utah is +4.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.1). Utah's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
BYU at Utah: questions people ask
BYU vs. Utah prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Utah, 70% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Utah's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 1st in 3rd down conversion, against BYU's 3rd down defense at 105th.
Where can I watch BYU vs. Utah, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of BYU vs. Utah?
SP+ projects Utah 29–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for BYU at Utah?
DraftKings has Utah −3, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the BYU vs. Utah series history?
Utah leads 59–34–4. Last meeting: BYU won 24–21 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in BYU vs. Utah?
BYU: Bear Bachmeier (1,514 passing yards), LJ Martin (344 rushing yards) and Legend Glasker (498 receiving yards). Utah: Devon Dampier (1,897 passing yards), Wayshawn Parker (710 rushing yards) and Braden Pegan (505 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in BYU at Utah?
BYU's is Bear Bachmeier (1,514 passing yards this season); Utah's is Devon Dampier (1,897 passing yards this season).
Who's out for BYU at Utah?
BYU: LJ Martin (RB), out; Evan Johnson (CB), out.
Keep going
- BYU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Utah: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.