West Virginia vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
84% chance to win
- Texas Tech should win on early downs. Texas Tech is top-10 (10th) in SUPLEX, and West Virginia is bottom-20 (126th) in SUPLEX allowed.
- Texas Tech's offense should move it. Texas Tech is top-25 (15th) in yards per play, and West Virginia is bottom-20 (130th) in yards per play allowed.
West Virginia at Texas Tech
Projected score: West Virginia 24, Texas Tech 45 (total 69).SP+: Texas Tech by 20.9, 93% chance to win.PRIME: Texas Tech by 5.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Jones AT&T Stadium
- Series
- Texas Tech leads 8–7
- Last meeting
- Texas Tech 49–0 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Texas Tech by 20.9 | 93% | 69 |
| PRIME | Texas Tech by 5.1 | 64% | |
| Elo | Texas Tech | 95% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, West Virginia or Texas Tech?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide West Virginia vs. Texas Tech?
All three ratings favor Texas Tech, by 5.1 to 20.9 points, and it isn't close. Texas Tech's best matchup is its early-down offense, 10th in SUPLEX, against West Virginia's early-down defense at 126th. West Virginia's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 6th in 3rd down conversion, against Texas Tech's 3rd down defense at 36th.
West Virginia with the ball
Texas Tech with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for West Virginia and Texas Tech?
West Virginia
- Da'Mare Williams (#6), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Emory Snyder (#23), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Armoni Weaver-Bomar (#25), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Andre Devine (#26), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jason Chambers (#36), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Corey McIntyre Jr. (#52), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Darius Wiley (#91), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Texas Tech
- Jalen Jones (#6), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Malcolm Simmons (#11), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How West Virginia and Texas Tech compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; West Virginia and Texas Tech are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How West Virginia's and Texas Tech's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsTexas Tech 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate West Virginia and Texas Tech?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas Tech 18.4 points better (9th to 70th). PRIME also has Texas Tech ahead, by 2.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas Tech ahead (14th to 93rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedTexas Tech 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
West Virginia's offense ranks 45th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Texas Tech defense it faces ranks 16th in EPA per play allowed. Texas Tech's offense ranks 48th against West Virginia's 133rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Texas Tech's offense against West Virginia's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Texas Tech's efficiency: 20th in adjusted success rate, against West Virginia's 130th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPATexas Tech 5–3
Who's more efficient, West Virginia or Texas Tech?
West Virginia is about as good throwing (43rd in EPA per pass) as running (47th). Texas Tech is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). West Virginia's run defense ranks 65th, so that's an edge. On third down, Texas Tech has the edge: its offense ranks 64th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 111th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, West Virginia or Texas Tech?
West Virginia outscores FBS opponents by 3.7 a game, and Texas Tech by 14.5. West Virginia's offense ranks 21st in scoring, and the Texas Tech defense it faces ranks 42nd in points allowed. Texas Tech's offense ranks 23rd against West Virginia's 126th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Texas Tech's offense against West Virginia's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseTexas Tech 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
West Virginia's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Texas Tech's defense ranks 36th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Texas Tech's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 10th in SUPLEX, and West Virginia's defense ranks 126th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseTexas Tech 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Texas Tech's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 60th in sack rate, and West Virginia's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (119th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontTexas Tech 7–5
Who wins up front?
Texas Tech has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Texas Tech ranks 9th and West Virginia 84th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversTexas Tech 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: West Virginia is +0.3 a game and Texas Tech +0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTexas Tech 10–1
Which team has more talent?
Texas Tech has the more talented roster (28th in the 247Sports talent composite; West Virginia is 49th). Texas Tech also plays further above its talent: +11.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to West Virginia's −2.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyTexas Tech 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Texas Tech's roster is valued at $33.4M, West Virginia's at $20.3M. Texas Tech also plays better per dollar: +2.1 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.6 for West Virginia.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSTexas Tech 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
West Virginia is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.4). Texas Tech is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.8). West Virginia's record is running 1.4 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
West Virginia at Texas Tech: questions people ask
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Texas Tech, 84% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Texas Tech's best matchup is its early-down offense, 10th in SUPLEX, against West Virginia's early-down defense at 126th.
Where can I watch West Virginia vs. Texas Tech, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Jones AT&T Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of West Virginia vs. Texas Tech?
SP+ projects Texas Tech 45–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the West Virginia vs. Texas Tech series history?
Texas Tech leads 8–7. Last meeting: Texas Tech won 49–0 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in West Virginia vs. Texas Tech?
West Virginia: Michael Hawkins Jr. (1,604 passing yards), Cam Cook (918 rushing yards) and DJ Epps (556 receiving yards). Texas Tech: Will Hammond (1,591 passing yards), J'Koby Williams (790 rushing yards) and Kenny Johnson (548 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in West Virginia at Texas Tech?
West Virginia's is Michael Hawkins Jr. (1,604 passing yards this season); Texas Tech's is Will Hammond (1,591 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- West Virginia: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Houston: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.