Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
76% chance to win
- Baylor should get home. Baylor is top-10 (6th) in sack rate, and Iowa State is bottom-40 (95th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
- Baylor's pass defense should win its matchup. Baylor is top-25 (20th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Iowa State is bottom-40 (103rd) in EPA per pass.
Iowa State at Baylor
Projected score: Iowa State 17, Baylor 29 (total 46).SP+: Baylor by 12.2, 81% chance to win.PRIME: Baylor by 8.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- McLane Stadium
- Series
- Baylor leads 12–11
- Last meeting
- Iowa State 43–21 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Baylor by 12.2 | 81% | 46 |
| PRIME | Baylor by 8.0 | 72% | |
| Elo | Baylor | 76% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Iowa State or Baylor?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Iowa State vs. Baylor?
All three ratings favor Baylor, by 8.0 to 12.2 points. Baylor's best matchup is its pass rush, 6th in sack rate, against Iowa State's pass protection at 95th. Iowa State's way back in is its early-down defense, 64th in SUPLEX allowed, against Baylor's early-down offense at 127th.
Iowa State with the ball
Baylor with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Iowa State and Baylor?
Iowa State
- Connor Moberly (QB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Beni Ngoyi (CB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Caden Crawford (#92), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ka'Mori Moore (#95), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Bryson Lamb (#99), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Baylor
- Jacob Redding (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Jamarion Richardson (#38), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Devonte Tezino (DL), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Cayden Tone (#61), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Ashton Jones (#87), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Iowa State and Baylor compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Iowa State and Baylor are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Iowa State's and Baylor's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsBaylor 7–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Iowa State and Baylor?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Baylor 9.7 points better (43rd to 76th). PRIME also has Baylor ahead, by 5.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Baylor ahead (35th to 59th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedBaylor 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Iowa State's offense ranks 88th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Baylor defense it faces ranks 18th in EPA per play allowed. Baylor's offense ranks 67th against Iowa State's 83rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Baylor's big plays: 51st in adjusted explosiveness, against Iowa State's 100th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPABaylor 7–1
Who's more efficient, Iowa State or Baylor?
Iowa State is better running (74th in EPA per rush) than throwing (97th). Baylor's run defense ranks 10th, so the defense has the better of it. Baylor is better throwing (64th in EPA per pass) than running (114th). Iowa State's pass defense ranks 92nd, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringBaylor 2–0
Who scores more, Iowa State or Baylor?
Iowa State outscores FBS opponents by 1.8 a game, and Baylor by 15.4. Iowa State's offense ranks 65th in scoring, and the Baylor defense it faces ranks 12th in points allowed. Baylor's offense ranks 54th against Iowa State's 97th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Baylor's offense against Iowa State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseIowa State 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Iowa State has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 49th, against a defense ranked 40th in explosive plays allowed. Baylor has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 106th, against a defense ranked 94th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseBaylor 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Iowa State's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 64th in SUPLEX allowed, and Baylor's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (127th). That's a mismatch. Baylor's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 6th in sack rate, and Iowa State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (95th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontBaylor 8–4
Who wins up front?
Baylor has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Iowa State ranks 56th and Baylor 132nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversIowa State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Iowa State is +0.3 a game and Baylor +0.4. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Iowa State's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentBaylor 9–1
Which team has more talent?
Baylor has the more talented roster (43rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Iowa State is 68th). Baylor also plays further above its talent: +4.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Iowa State's −1.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyBaylor 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Iowa State's roster is valued at $20.8M, Baylor's at $19.8M. Dollar for dollar, Baylor plays better: +3.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −7.2 for Iowa State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSBaylor 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Iowa State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.9). Baylor is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.8). Iowa State's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Iowa State at Baylor: questions people ask
Iowa State vs. Baylor prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Baylor, 76% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Baylor's best matchup is its pass rush, 6th in sack rate, against Iowa State's pass protection at 95th.
Where can I watch Iowa State vs. Baylor, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at McLane Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Iowa State vs. Baylor?
SP+ projects Baylor 29–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Iowa State vs. Baylor series history?
Baylor leads 12–11. Last meeting: Iowa State won 43–21 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Iowa State vs. Baylor?
Iowa State: Jaylen Raynor (1,119 passing yards), Aiden Flora (716 rushing yards) and Omari Hayes (237 receiving yards). Baylor: D.J. Lagway (1,681 passing yards), Dawson Pendergrass (339 rushing yards) and Gavin Freeman (808 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Iowa State at Baylor?
Iowa State's is Jaylen Raynor (1,119 passing yards this season); Baylor's is D.J. Lagway (1,681 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Iowa State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Baylor: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Houston: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.