Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Week 10 2026
47% chance to win
- Oklahoma State should hit big plays. Oklahoma State is top-10 (4th) in explosive play rate, and Kansas State is bottom-40 (96th) in explosive plays allowed.
- Oklahoma State should run it. Oklahoma State is top-25 (24th) in yards per carry, and Kansas State is bottom-40 (98th) in yards per carry allowed.
Kansas State is without QB Avery Johnson (1,315 passing yards). Kansas State has played 2 games without Johnson and lost both by 7 (it won by 16 ppg with him). The ratings have mostly caught up to that, so he barely moves the needle now.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Projected score: Oklahoma State 32, Kansas State 31 (total 64).SP+: Oklahoma State by 1.1, 53% chance to win.PRIME: Oklahoma State by 4.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Bill Snyder Family Stadium
- Series
- Oklahoma State leads 43–26
- Last meeting
- Kansas State 14–6 in 2025
- Kansas State injuries
- Johnson (QB), out; Jacob Knuth (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Oklahoma State by 1.1 | 53% | 64 |
| PRIME | Oklahoma State by 4.6 | 63% | |
| Elo | Kansas State | 74% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Oklahoma State or Kansas State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Oklahoma State ahead by a hair. Oklahoma State's best matchup is its big-play offense, 4th in explosive play rate, against Kansas State's big-play defense at 96th. Kansas State's way back in is its 3rd down defense, 31st in 3rd downs allowed, against Oklahoma State's 3rd down offense at 94th. We left out the edges built on Johnson, who's out.
Oklahoma State with the ball
Kansas State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Oklahoma State and Kansas State?
Oklahoma State
- Dayvon Standard (#19), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Carson Kolb (#44), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Quinton Hammonds (S), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Landon Dean (#88), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Kansas State
- Johnson (QB), out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31). Hurt after a long run in the first half of the Oct. 17 win over Kansas; missed the Oct. 24 game at Arizona State. Collin Klein said Oct. 26 he's day-to-day and gave no timeline (Yahoo Sports, SI). The Big 12 report lists him out for Colorado. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Knuth (QB), out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31). The backup who ran the offense at Arizona State (9 carries, 44 yards, per SI). The Big 12 report moved him from doubtful to out for Colorado (update 2, Oct. 31); no injury detail found. (as of Oct 31, 2026)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Oklahoma State and Kansas State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Oklahoma State and Kansas State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Oklahoma State's and Kansas State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsOklahoma State 6–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Oklahoma State and Kansas State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Oklahoma State 3.6 points better (23rd to 39th). PRIME also has Oklahoma State ahead, by 7.1. Elo, which only sees results, has Kansas State ahead (51st to 75th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedOklahoma State 10–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Oklahoma State's offense ranks 37th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Kansas State defense it faces ranks 87th in EPA per play allowed. Kansas State's offense ranks 61st against Oklahoma State's 62nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Oklahoma State's offense against Kansas State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Oklahoma State's offensive line in the run game: 21st in adjusted line yards per carry, against Kansas State's 88th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAOklahoma State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Oklahoma State or Kansas State?
Oklahoma State is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (89th). Kansas State's pass defense ranks 51st, so that's an edge. Kansas State is better running (43rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (83rd). Oklahoma State's run defense ranks 46th. On third down, Kansas State has the edge: its offense ranks 19th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 72nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Oklahoma State or Kansas State?
Oklahoma State outscores FBS opponents by 14.0 a game, and Kansas State by 9.9. Oklahoma State's offense ranks 3rd in scoring, and the Kansas State defense it faces ranks 50th in points allowed. Kansas State's offense ranks 50th against Oklahoma State's 96th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseOklahoma State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Oklahoma State's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 4th in explosive play rate, and Kansas State's defense ranks 96th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Kansas State's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 23rd in success rate, and Oklahoma State's defense ranks 73rd in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseKansas State 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Oklahoma State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 37th in explosive plays allowed, and Kansas State's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (95th). Kansas State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 31st in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Oklahoma State's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (94th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Kansas State ranks 5th and Oklahoma State 68th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversEven 3–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Oklahoma State is −0.1 a game and Kansas State −0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentKansas State 9–1
Which team has more talent?
Kansas State has the more talented roster (47th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oklahoma State is 65th). But Oklahoma State plays further above its talent: +11.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Kansas State's +5.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyOklahoma State 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Oklahoma State's roster is valued at $22.2M, Kansas State's at $21.9M. Oklahoma State also plays better per dollar: +5.0 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +1.7 for Kansas State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSOklahoma State 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Oklahoma State is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.0). Kansas State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.9). Kansas State's record is 1.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Oklahoma State at Kansas State: questions people ask
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Oklahoma State, 47% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Kansas State. Oklahoma State's best matchup is its big-play offense, 4th in explosive play rate, against Kansas State's big-play defense at 96th.
Where can I watch Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State?
SP+ projects Oklahoma State 32–31. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State series history?
Oklahoma State leads 43–26. Last meeting: Kansas State won 14–6 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State?
Oklahoma State: Drew Mestemaker (2,338 passing yards), Caleb Hawkins (712 rushing yards) and Wyatt Young (643 receiving yards). Kansas State: Johnson (1,315 passing yards), Rodney Fields Jr. (487 rushing yards) and Jaron Tibbs (381 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Oklahoma State at Kansas State?
Oklahoma State's is Drew Mestemaker (2,338 passing yards this season); Kansas State's is Johnson (1,315 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Oklahoma State at Kansas State?
Kansas State: Johnson (QB), out; Knuth (QB), out.
Keep going
- Oklahoma State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kansas State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Houston: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.