TCU vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
80% chance to win
- Arizona's run defense has the edge on TCU's run game. Arizona is above average (32nd) in EPA per rush allowed, and TCU is bottom-20 (135th) in EPA per rush.
- Arizona's run-stopping front has the edge on TCU's offensive line. Arizona is above average (33rd) in line yards allowed per carry, and TCU is bottom-20 (132nd) in line yards per carry.
TCU at Arizona
Projected score: TCU 17, Arizona 27 (total 44).SP+: Arizona by 9.9, 76% chance to win.PRIME: Arizona by 13.7.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 6, 10:15 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Arizona Stadium
- Series
- TCU leads 2–1
- Last meeting
- TCU 49–28 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Arizona by 9.9 | 76% | 44 |
| PRIME | Arizona by 13.7 | 84% | |
| Elo | Arizona | 81% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, TCU or Arizona?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide TCU vs. Arizona?
All three ratings favor Arizona, by 9.9 to 13.7 points, and it isn't close. Arizona's best matchup is its run defense, 32nd in EPA per rush allowed, against TCU's run game at 135th. TCU's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 41st in 3rd down conversion, against Arizona's 3rd down defense at 109th.
TCU with the ball
Arizona with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for TCU and Arizona?
TCU
- Julius Simms (#7), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Terry Shelton (#15), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Devondre McGee (#17), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Fletcher Fierro (#22), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jeremy Payne (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Michael Teason Jr. (#27), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cade Bennett (#60), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Keagan Cunningham (#83), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cooper Reid (#84), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brody Whatley (#99), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, update 1, Oct 31)
- Ryan Yaites (#13), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Landon Walker (#27), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Arizona
- Max Harris (#5), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jay'Vion Cole (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Shane King (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cole Rusk (#14), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ismail Mahdi (#21), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Swayde Griffin (#28), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kevin Moorer Jr. (DL), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ezra Funa (#92), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How TCU and Arizona compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; TCU and Arizona are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How TCU's and Arizona's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsArizona 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate TCU and Arizona?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Arizona 7.4 points better (14th to 41st). PRIME also has Arizona ahead, by 11.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Arizona ahead (17th to 49th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedArizona 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
TCU's offense ranks 114th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arizona defense it faces ranks 17th in EPA per play allowed. Arizona's offense ranks 26th against TCU's 6th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAArizona 5–3
Who's more efficient, TCU or Arizona?
TCU is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (131st). Arizona's pass defense ranks 8th, so the defense has the better of it. Arizona is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (47th). TCU's pass defense ranks 19th, so that's strength on strength.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, TCU or Arizona?
TCU outscores FBS opponents by 9.1 a game, and Arizona by 16.0. TCU's offense ranks 100th in scoring, and the Arizona defense it faces ranks 27th in points allowed. Arizona's offense ranks 29th against TCU's 8th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseArizona 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
TCU's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 41st in 3rd down conversion rate, and Arizona's defense ranks 109th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Arizona has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 48th, against a defense ranked 15th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseTCU 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
TCU's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 12th in yards per carry allowed, and Arizona's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (80th). That's a mismatch. Arizona's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 16th in sack rate, and TCU's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (111th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontArizona 10–2
Who wins up front?
Arizona has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Arizona ranks 15th and TCU 127th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversEven 3–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: TCU is −0.4 a game and Arizona −0.3. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and TCU's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.3 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentArizona 6–4
Which team has more talent?
TCU has the more talented roster (39th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arizona is 54th). But Arizona plays further above its talent: +13.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to TCU's +4.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyArizona 3–0
Which roster costs more?
TCU's roster is valued at $20.1M, Arizona's at $19.9M. Dollar for dollar, Arizona plays better: +10.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +3.3 for TCU.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSArizona 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
TCU is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.4). Arizona is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.5). TCU's record is 1.4 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
TCU at Arizona: questions people ask
TCU vs. Arizona prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Arizona, 80% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Arizona's best matchup is its run defense, 32nd in EPA per rush allowed, against TCU's run game at 135th.
Where can I watch TCU vs. Arizona, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 6, 10:15 PM ET at Arizona Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of TCU vs. Arizona?
SP+ projects Arizona 27–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the TCU vs. Arizona series history?
TCU leads 2–1. Last meeting: TCU won 49–28 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in TCU vs. Arizona?
TCU: Jaden Craig (2,084 passing yards), Jeremy Payne (382 rushing yards) and Ed Small (522 receiving yards). Arizona: Noah Fifita (2,477 passing yards), Kedrick Reescano (310 rushing yards) and Isaiah Mizell (677 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in TCU at Arizona?
TCU's is Jaden Craig (2,084 passing yards this season); Arizona's is Noah Fifita (2,477 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- TCU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Arizona: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Houston: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.