Charlotte vs. UAB Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
87% chance to win
- UAB's defense has the edge on Charlotte's offense. UAB is above average (50th) in EPA per play allowed, and Charlotte is bottom-20 (133rd) in EPA per play.
- UAB's 3rd down offense has the edge on Charlotte's 3rd down defense. UAB is above average (45th) in 3rd down conversion, and Charlotte is bottom-20 (133rd) in 3rd downs allowed.
Charlotte at UAB
Projected score: Charlotte 19, UAB 36 (total 55).SP+: UAB by 17.5, 89% chance to win.PRIME: UAB by 12.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Protective Stadium
- Series
- Tied 2–2
- Last meeting
- Charlotte 29–27 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UAB by 17.5 | 89% | 55 |
| PRIME | UAB by 12.1 | 81% | |
| Elo | UAB | 90% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Charlotte or UAB?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Charlotte vs. UAB?
All three ratings favor UAB, by 12.1 to 17.5 points, and it isn't close. UAB's best matchup is its defense, 50th in EPA per play allowed, against Charlotte's offense at 133rd. Charlotte doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces.
Charlotte with the ball
UAB with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Charlotte and UAB?
Charlotte
- Cole Gonzales (QB), hasn't played since Week 5 (127 pass attempts in 5 games before that)
UAB
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Charlotte and UAB compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Charlotte and UAB are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Charlotte's and UAB's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsUAB 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Charlotte and UAB?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UAB 15.0 points better (110th to 136th). PRIME also has UAB ahead, by 9.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has UAB ahead (94th to 134th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedUAB 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Charlotte's offense ranks 133rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the UAB defense it faces ranks 50th in EPA per play allowed. UAB's offense ranks 122nd against Charlotte's 99th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is UAB's big plays: 78th in adjusted explosiveness, against Charlotte's 111th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Charlotte's defense climbs from 128th to 99th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUAB 6–1
Who's more efficient, Charlotte or UAB?
Charlotte is better throwing (92nd in EPA per pass) than running (126th). UAB's pass defense ranks 31st, so the defense has the better of it. UAB is better running (67th in EPA per rush) than throwing (130th). Charlotte's run defense ranks 116th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringUAB 2–0
Who scores more, Charlotte or UAB?
Charlotte is outscored by 19.6 a game, and UAB is outscored by 3.6. Charlotte's offense ranks 120th in scoring, and the UAB defense it faces ranks 74th in points allowed. UAB's offense ranks 111th against Charlotte's 137th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UAB's offense against Charlotte's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseUAB 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Charlotte has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 90th, against a defense ranked 84th in yards per carry allowed. UAB's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 45th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Charlotte's defense ranks 133rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUAB 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
UAB's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 29th in SUPLEX allowed, and Charlotte's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (116th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontUAB 7–5
Who wins up front?
UAB has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where Charlotte ranks 40th and UAB 129th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUAB 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
UAB is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and Charlotte is −1.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for UAB. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UAB's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.4 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentUAB 7–2
Which team has more talent?
UAB has the more talented roster (92nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Charlotte is 104th). UAB also plays further above its talent: −6.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Charlotte's −20.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSUAB 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Charlotte is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.5). UAB is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). UAB's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Charlotte at UAB: questions people ask
Charlotte vs. UAB prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick UAB, 87% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. UAB's best matchup is its defense, 50th in EPA per play allowed, against Charlotte's offense at 133rd.
Where can I watch Charlotte vs. UAB, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET at Protective Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Charlotte vs. UAB?
SP+ projects UAB 36–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Charlotte vs. UAB series history?
It's tied 2–2. Last meeting: Charlotte won 29–27 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Charlotte vs. UAB?
Charlotte: Cole Gonzales (878 passing yards), Henry Rutledge (453 rushing yards) and Derrick Eley (481 receiving yards). UAB: Ryder Burton (1,322 passing yards), Roderick Robinson II (450 rushing yards) and C.J. Smith (403 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Charlotte at UAB?
Charlotte's is Cole Gonzales (878 passing yards this season); UAB's is Ryder Burton (1,322 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Charlotte at UAB?
Charlotte: Cole Gonzales (QB) hasn't played since Week 5.
Keep going
- Charlotte: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UAB: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTSA at Florida Atlantic: the numbers' pick
- South Florida at East Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Tulsa at Tulane: the numbers' pick
- Temple at Navy: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.