Temple vs. Navy Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayNavy72% chance to win
- Navy's passing game has the edge on Temple's pass defense. Navy is above average (47th) in EPA per pass, and Temple is bottom-20 (123rd) in EPA per pass allowed.
- Navy's offense has the edge on Temple's defense. Navy is above average (36th) in success rate, and Temple is bottom-20 (116th) in success rate allowed.
Temple at Navy
Projected score: Temple 29, Navy 37 (total 66).SP+: Navy by 8.6, 73% chance to win.PRIME: Navy by 4.9.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
- Series
- Navy leads 11–9
- Last meeting
- Navy 32–31 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Navy by 8.6 | 73% | 66 |
| PRIME | Navy by 4.9 | 64% | |
| Elo | Navy | 79% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Temple or Navy?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Temple vs. Navy?
All three ratings favor Navy, by 4.9 to 8.6 points. Navy's best matchup is its passing game, 47th in EPA per pass, against Temple's pass defense at 123rd. Temple's way back in is its offense, 20th in yards per play, against Navy's defense at 121st.
Temple with the ball
Navy with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Temple and Navy?
Temple
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Navy
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Temple and Navy compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Temple and Navy are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Temple's and Navy's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsNavy 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Temple and Navy?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Navy 6.1 points better (80th to 99th). PRIME also has Navy ahead, by 2.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Navy ahead (75th to 111th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedNavy 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Temple's offense ranks 33rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Navy defense it faces ranks 78th in EPA per play allowed. Navy's offense ranks 55th against Temple's 123rd-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Navy's efficiency: 46th in adjusted success rate, against Temple's 129th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Navy's defense climbs from 113th to 78th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPANavy 5–3
Who's more efficient, Temple or Navy?
Temple is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). Navy's run defense ranks 58th, so that's an edge. Navy is better running (14th in EPA per rush) than throwing (70th). Temple's run defense ranks 95th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Navy has the edge: its offense ranks 28th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 131st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Temple or Navy?
Temple is outscored by 3.0 a game, and Navy is outscored by 2.3. Temple's offense ranks 97th in scoring, and the Navy defense it faces ranks 112th in points allowed. Navy's offense ranks 74th against Temple's 92nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseTemple 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Temple's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 42nd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Navy's defense ranks 117th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Navy's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 36th in success rate, and Temple's defense ranks 116th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseNavy 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Navy's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 48th in sack rate, and Temple's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (121st). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontNavy 10–2
Who wins up front?
Navy has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Navy ranks 5th and Temple 117th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversTemple 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Temple is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and Navy is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Temple. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTemple 9–1
Which team has more talent?
Temple has the more talented roster (80th in the 247Sports talent composite; Navy is 138th). But Navy plays further above its talent: +27.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Temple's −5.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSTemple 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Temple is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.4). Navy is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−3.4). Navy's record is 2.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Temple at Navy: questions people ask
Temple vs. Navy prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Navy, 72% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Navy's best matchup is its passing game, 47th in EPA per pass, against Temple's pass defense at 123rd.
Where can I watch Temple vs. Navy, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Temple vs. Navy?
SP+ projects Navy 37–29. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Temple vs. Navy series history?
Navy leads 11–9. Last meeting: Navy won 32–31 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Temple vs. Navy?
Temple: Ajani Sheppard (1,265 passing yards), Keveun Mason (560 rushing yards) and Colin Chase (330 receiving yards). Navy: Jackson Gutierrez (717 passing yards), Vic Listorti (251 rushing yards) and Charles Robinson (85 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Temple at Navy?
Temple's is Ajani Sheppard (1,265 passing yards this season); Navy's is Jackson Gutierrez (717 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Temple: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Navy: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.