Cincinnati vs. Houston Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
73% chance to win
- Houston should throw it. Houston is top-10 (8th) in EPA per pass, and Cincinnati is bottom-20 (124th) in EPA per pass allowed.
- Houston should stay on the field on 3rd down. Houston is top-10 (9th) in 3rd down conversion, and Cincinnati is bottom-20 (121st) in 3rd downs allowed.
Cincinnati at Houston
Projected score: Cincinnati 30, Houston 39 (total 69).SP+: Houston by 9.1, 74% chance to win.PRIME: Houston by 7.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- TDECU Stadium
- Series
- Tied 15–15
- Last meeting
- Cincinnati 34–0 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Houston by 9.1 | 74% | 69 |
| PRIME | Houston by 7.8 | 71% | |
| Elo | Houston | 74% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Cincinnati or Houston?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Cincinnati vs. Houston?
All three ratings favor Houston, by 7.8 to 9.1 points. Houston's best matchup is its passing game, 8th in EPA per pass, against Cincinnati's pass defense at 124th. Cincinnati's way back in is its offense, 18th in yards per play, against Houston's defense at 127th.
Cincinnati with the ball
Houston with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Cincinnati and Houston?
Cincinnati
- Montay Weedon (#44), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Taran Tyo (#77), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- DaMari Witherspoon (#88), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Josh Hough (DL), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Houston
- Jaden Yates (#1), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- De'Marion Thomas (DL), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Cincinnati and Houston compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Cincinnati and Houston are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Cincinnati's and Houston's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsHouston 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Cincinnati and Houston?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Houston 6.6 points better (22nd to 49th). PRIME also has Houston ahead, by 5.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Houston ahead (45th to 70th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedHouston 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Cincinnati's offense ranks 24th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Houston defense it faces ranks 86th in EPA per play allowed. Houston's offense ranks 5th against Cincinnati's 104th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Houston's passing game: 8th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Cincinnati's 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAHouston 6–1
Who's more efficient, Cincinnati or Houston?
Cincinnati is better running (8th in EPA per rush) than throwing (33rd). Houston's run defense ranks 71st, so that's a mismatch. Houston is better throwing (5th in EPA per pass) than running (58th). Cincinnati's pass defense ranks 111th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Houston has the edge: its offense ranks 2nd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 111th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringHouston 2–0
Who scores more, Cincinnati or Houston?
Cincinnati outscores FBS opponents by 4.9 a game, and Houston by 15.0. Cincinnati's offense ranks 31st in scoring, and the Houston defense it faces ranks 40th in points allowed. Houston's offense ranks 20th against Cincinnati's 107th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Houston's offense against Cincinnati's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseHouston 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Cincinnati's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 30th in explosive play rate, and Houston's defense ranks 122nd in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Houston's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 9th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Cincinnati's defense ranks 121st in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseHouston 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontHouston 8–4
Who wins up front?
Houston has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Cincinnati ranks 6th and Houston 113th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversCincinnati 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Cincinnati is +0.9 a game and Houston +0.8. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Cincinnati's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.4 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentHouston 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Houston has the more talented roster (57th in the 247Sports talent composite; Cincinnati is 77th). Houston also plays further above its talent: +11.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Cincinnati's +8.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyCincinnati 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Houston's roster is valued at $26.3M, Cincinnati's at $19.1M. Dollar for dollar, Cincinnati plays better: +2.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +2.2 for Houston.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSHouston 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Cincinnati is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.3). Houston is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.6). Houston's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Cincinnati at Houston: questions people ask
Cincinnati vs. Houston prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Houston, 73% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Houston's best matchup is its passing game, 8th in EPA per pass, against Cincinnati's pass defense at 124th.
Where can I watch Cincinnati vs. Houston, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at TDECU Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Cincinnati vs. Houston?
SP+ projects Houston 39–30. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Cincinnati vs. Houston series history?
It's tied 15–15. Last meeting: Cincinnati won 34–0 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Cincinnati vs. Houston?
Cincinnati: JC French (1,805 passing yards), Cole Tabb (721 rushing yards) and JaVonnie Gibson (461 receiving yards). Houston: Conner Weigman (2,060 passing yards), Makhi Hughes (517 rushing yards) and Amare Thomas (628 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Cincinnati at Houston?
Cincinnati's is JC French (1,805 passing yards this season); Houston's is Conner Weigman (2,060 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Cincinnati: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.