Colorado vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
72% chance to win
- Arizona State's run defense has the edge on Colorado's run game. Arizona State is middle of the pack (58th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Colorado is bottom-20 (132nd) in EPA per rush.
- Arizona State's run-stopping front has the edge on Colorado's offensive line. Arizona State is above average (50th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Colorado is bottom-40 (104th) in line yards per carry.
Colorado at Arizona State
Projected score: Colorado 19, Arizona State 28 (total 48).SP+: Arizona State by 9.1, 74% chance to win.PRIME: Arizona State by 4.2.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Mountain America Stadium
- Series
- Arizona State leads 11–4
- Last meeting
- Arizona State 42–17 in 2025
- Colorado injuries
- Julian Lewis (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Arizona State by 9.1 | 74% | 48 |
| PRIME | Arizona State by 4.2 | 62% | |
| Elo | Arizona State | 81% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Colorado or Arizona State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Colorado vs. Arizona State?
All three ratings favor Arizona State, by 4.2 to 9.1 points. Arizona State's best matchup is its run defense, 58th in EPA per rush allowed, against Colorado's run game at 132nd. Colorado's way back in is its run defense, 15th in EPA per rush allowed, against Arizona State's run game at 106th.
Colorado with the ball
Arizona State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Colorado and Arizona State?
Colorado
- Julian Lewis (QB), out. Undisclosed on the Big 12 report, which moved him from doubtful to out (update 1, Oct. 31). He lost the starting job to Isaac Wilson in Week 5, and reports split on whether this is an injury or a coach's decision. Deion Sanders: "That's on him" (SI, Yahoo Sports). He is not on the Big 12 report in update 2 (Oct. 31), which means available; status unconfirmed, so we keep "out" until a named source says otherwise. (as of Oct 31, 2026)
- Danny Scudero (#18), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Braylon Edwards (#26), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Micah Welch (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Vili Taufatofua (#45), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Sam Gadie (#92), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Arizona State
- Marques Uini (#50), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tana Alo-Tupuola (#58), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Wade Helton (#64), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Xander Ruggeroli (#79), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Harry Hassmann (#89), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Lyrik Rawls (DB), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Mikey Keene (QB), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Colorado and Arizona State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Colorado and Arizona State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Colorado's and Arizona State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsArizona State 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Colorado and Arizona State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Arizona State 6.6 points better (62nd to 93rd). PRIME also has Arizona State ahead, by 1.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has Arizona State ahead (73rd to 112th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedArizona State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Colorado's offense ranks 121st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arizona State defense it faces ranks 69th in EPA per play allowed. Arizona State's offense ranks 118th against Colorado's 36th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. Adjust for opponents and Colorado's defense climbs from 56th to 36th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Colorado or Arizona State?
Colorado is better throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) than running (130th). Arizona State's pass defense ranks 51st, so the defense has the better of it. Arizona State is about as good throwing (89th in EPA per pass) as running (103rd).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Colorado or Arizona State?
Colorado is outscored by 8.4 a game, and Arizona State by 0.0. Colorado's offense ranks 117th in scoring, and the Arizona State defense it faces ranks 109th in points allowed. Arizona State's offense ranks 60th against Colorado's 108th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Arizona State's offense against Colorado's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseArizona State 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Colorado has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 117th, against a defense ranked 112th in SUPLEX allowed. Arizona State's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 80th in explosive play rate, and Colorado's defense ranks 120th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseColorado 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Colorado's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 20th in sack rate, and Arizona State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (80th). That's a mismatch. Arizona State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 56th in explosive plays allowed, and Colorado's offense is bottom-40 in explosive play rate (98th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Arizona State ranks 17th and Colorado 113th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversArizona State 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Arizona State is −0.6 in turnover margin a game and Colorado is −1.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Arizona State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentArizona State 6–5
Which team has more talent?
Colorado has the more talented roster (38th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arizona State is 45th). But Arizona State plays further above its talent: −1.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Colorado's −8.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyArizona State 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Colorado's roster is valued at $21.5M, Arizona State's at $20.0M. Dollar for dollar, Arizona State plays better: −2.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −11.0 for Colorado.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSArizona State 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Colorado is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.4). Arizona State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.7). Colorado's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Colorado at Arizona State: questions people ask
Colorado vs. Arizona State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Arizona State, 72% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Arizona State's best matchup is its run defense, 58th in EPA per rush allowed, against Colorado's run game at 132nd.
Where can I watch Colorado vs. Arizona State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET at Mountain America Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Colorado vs. Arizona State?
SP+ projects Arizona State 28–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Colorado vs. Arizona State series history?
Arizona State leads 11–4. Last meeting: Arizona State won 42–17 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Colorado vs. Arizona State?
Colorado: Isaac Wilson (1,184 passing yards), Jaquail Smith (361 rushing yards) and Joseph Williams (750 receiving yards). Arizona State: Cutter Boley (1,372 passing yards), Cardae Mack (400 rushing yards) and Reed Harris (800 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Colorado at Arizona State?
Colorado's is Isaac Wilson (1,184 passing yards this season); Arizona State's is Cutter Boley (1,372 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Colorado at Arizona State?
Colorado: Julian Lewis (QB), out.
Keep going
- Colorado: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Arizona State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.