Delaware vs. Kennesaw State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
53% chance to win
- Delaware's run defense has the edge on Kennesaw State's run game. Delaware is middle of the pack (69th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Kennesaw State is bottom-40 (100th) in EPA per rush.
Delaware at Kennesaw State
Projected score: Delaware 26, Kennesaw State 27 (total 53).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Delaware by 1.3, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Fifth Third Stadium
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Kennesaw State by 0.4 | 51% | 53 |
| PRIME | Delaware by 1.3 | 54% | |
| Elo | Delaware | 57% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Delaware or Kennesaw State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Delaware vs. Kennesaw State?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Delaware ahead by a hair. Delaware's best matchup is its run defense, 69th in EPA per rush allowed, against Kennesaw State's run game at 100th. Kennesaw State's way back in is its early-down offense, 74th in SUPLEX, against Delaware's early-down defense at 128th.
Delaware with the ball
Kennesaw State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Delaware and Kennesaw State?
Delaware
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Kennesaw State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Delaware and Kennesaw State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Delaware and Kennesaw State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Delaware's and Kennesaw State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsDelaware 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Delaware and Kennesaw State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Delaware 2.1 points better (117th to 120th). PRIME also has Delaware ahead, by 3.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Delaware ahead (87th to 108th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedKennesaw State 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Delaware's offense ranks 102nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Kennesaw State defense it faces ranks 111th in EPA per play allowed. Kennesaw State's offense ranks 100th against Delaware's 112th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Kennesaw State's passing game: 91st in adjusted EPA per pass, against Delaware's 119th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Delaware's offense falls from 44th to 102nd in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Delaware or Kennesaw State?
Delaware is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Kennesaw State's pass defense ranks 74th, so that's an edge. Kennesaw State is better running (80th in EPA per rush) than throwing (101st). Delaware's run defense ranks 104th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Delaware or Kennesaw State?
Delaware outscores FBS opponents by 1.6 a game, and Kennesaw State is outscored by 2.4. Delaware's offense ranks 63rd in scoring, and the Kennesaw State defense it faces ranks 79th in points allowed. Kennesaw State's offense ranks 102nd against Delaware's 100th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseKennesaw State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Delaware has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 87th, against a defense ranked 102nd in SUPLEX allowed. Kennesaw State's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 74th in SUPLEX, and Delaware's defense ranks 128th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseKennesaw State 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Kennesaw State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 74th in yards per carry allowed, and Delaware's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (110th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontKennesaw State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Kennesaw State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Kennesaw State ranks 30th and Delaware 89th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversDelaware 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Delaware is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Kennesaw State is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Delaware. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Delaware's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentDelaware 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Kennesaw State has the more talented roster (133rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Delaware is 134th). But Delaware plays further above its talent: −0.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Kennesaw State's −3.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSDelaware 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Delaware is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.5). Kennesaw State is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−1.5). Kennesaw State's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Delaware at Kennesaw State: questions people ask
Delaware vs. Kennesaw State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Delaware, 53% chance to win. PRIME and Elo agree; SP+ has Kennesaw State. Delaware's best matchup is its run defense, 69th in EPA per rush allowed, against Kennesaw State's run game at 100th.
Where can I watch Delaware vs. Kennesaw State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Delaware vs. Kennesaw State?
SP+ projects Kennesaw State 27–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Delaware vs. Kennesaw State series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in Delaware vs. Kennesaw State?
Delaware: Nick Minicucci (1,473 passing yards), Jo'Nathan Silver (357 rushing yards) and Sean Wilson (591 receiving yards). Kennesaw State: Rickie Collins (1,635 passing yards), Alan Woods III (351 rushing yards) and Javon Rogers (401 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Delaware at Kennesaw State?
Delaware's is Nick Minicucci (1,473 passing yards this season); Kennesaw State's is Rickie Collins (1,635 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Delaware: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kennesaw State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: the numbers' pick
- Missouri State at Florida International: the numbers' pick
- Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: the numbers' pick
- Liberty at New Mexico State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to winDelaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.