Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Week 10 2026
50% chance to win
- Western Kentucky's pass defense has the edge on Middle Tennessee's passing game. Western Kentucky is above average (28th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Middle Tennessee is middle of the pack (74th) in EPA per pass.
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee
Projected score: Western Kentucky 26, Middle Tennessee 25 (total 50).SP+: Western Kentucky by 1.2, 53% chance to win.PRIME: Middle Tennessee by 3.6, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
- Series
- Western Kentucky leads 12–6
- Last meeting
- Western Kentucky 42–26 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Western Kentucky by 1.2 | 53% | 50 |
| PRIME | Middle Tennessee by 3.6 | 60% | |
| Elo | Western Kentucky | 57% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Western Kentucky or Middle Tennessee?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Western Kentucky ahead by a hair. Western Kentucky's best matchup is its pass defense, 28th in EPA per pass allowed, against Middle Tennessee's passing game at 74th. Middle Tennessee's way back in is its pass defense, 76th in EPA per pass allowed, against Western Kentucky's passing game at 127th.
Western Kentucky with the ball
Middle Tennessee with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee?
Western Kentucky
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Middle Tennessee
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Western Kentucky's and Middle Tennessee's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsWestern Kentucky 6–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Western Kentucky 3.7 points better (115th to 125th). PRIME has Middle Tennessee by 1.1 instead. Elo, which only sees results, also has Western Kentucky ahead (116th to 126th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedMiddle Tennessee 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Western Kentucky's offense ranks 124th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Middle Tennessee defense it faces ranks 113th in EPA per play allowed. Middle Tennessee's offense ranks 74th against Western Kentucky's 93rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Middle Tennessee's big plays: 54th in adjusted explosiveness, against Western Kentucky's 125th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMiddle Tennessee 5–3
Who's more efficient, Western Kentucky or Middle Tennessee?
Western Kentucky is better running (89th in EPA per rush) than throwing (125th). Middle Tennessee's run defense ranks 100th. Middle Tennessee is better running (67th in EPA per rush) than throwing (106th). Western Kentucky's run defense ranks 104th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringMiddle Tennessee 2–0
Who scores more, Western Kentucky or Middle Tennessee?
Western Kentucky is outscored by 9.9 a game, and Middle Tennessee is outscored by 5.7. Western Kentucky's offense ranks 115th in scoring, and the Middle Tennessee defense it faces ranks 110th in points allowed. Middle Tennessee's offense ranks 95th against Western Kentucky's 119th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Offense
Which offense has the edge?
Western Kentucky's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 91st in yards per carry, and Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 128th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseWestern Kentucky 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontMiddle Tennessee 7–5
Who wins up front?
Middle Tennessee has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Middle Tennessee ranks 7th and Western Kentucky 108th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversWestern Kentucky 2–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentWestern Kentucky 7–2
Which team has more talent?
Western Kentucky has the more talented roster (87th in the 247Sports talent composite; Middle Tennessee is 109th). Western Kentucky also plays further above its talent: −8.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Middle Tennessee's −9.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSMiddle Tennessee 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Western Kentucky is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). Middle Tennessee is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9). Middle Tennessee's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: questions people ask
Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Western Kentucky, 50% chance to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Middle Tennessee. Western Kentucky's best matchup is its pass defense, 28th in EPA per pass allowed, against Middle Tennessee's passing game at 74th.
Where can I watch Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee?
SP+ projects Western Kentucky 26–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee series history?
Western Kentucky leads 12–6. Last meeting: Western Kentucky won 42–26 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee?
Western Kentucky: Brock Glenn (915 passing yards), Ajay Allen (403 rushing yards) and Jonathan Stafford Jr. (451 receiving yards). Middle Tennessee: Roman Gagliano (1,644 passing yards), Terrence Brown Jr. (326 rushing yards) and Cam'Ron Lacy (514 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee?
Western Kentucky's is Brock Glenn (915 passing yards this season); Middle Tennessee's is Roman Gagliano (1,644 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Western Kentucky: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Middle Tennessee: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Delaware at Kennesaw State: the numbers' pick
- Missouri State at Florida International: the numbers' pick
- Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: the numbers' pick
- Liberty at New Mexico State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.