Liberty vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayLiberty94% chance to win
- Liberty's defense should hold up. Liberty is top-25 (20th) in EPA per play allowed, and New Mexico State is bottom-20 (130th) in EPA per play.
- Liberty's pass defense should win its matchup. Liberty is top-25 (14th) in EPA per pass allowed, and New Mexico State is bottom-20 (123rd) in EPA per pass.
Liberty at New Mexico State
Projected score: Liberty 32, New Mexico State 13 (total 45).SP+: Liberty by 18.4, 91% chance to win.PRIME: Liberty by 20.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Series
- Liberty leads 7–2
- Last meeting
- Liberty 30–27 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Liberty by 18.4 | 91% | 45 |
| PRIME | Liberty by 20.8 | 93% | |
| Elo | Liberty | 97% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Liberty or New Mexico State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Liberty vs. New Mexico State?
All three ratings favor Liberty, by 18.4 to 20.8 points, and it isn't close. Liberty's best matchup is its defense, 20th in EPA per play allowed, against New Mexico State's offense at 130th. New Mexico State's way back in is its pass rush, 68th in sack rate, against Liberty's pass protection at 105th.
Liberty with the ball
New Mexico State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Liberty and New Mexico State?
Liberty
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
New Mexico State
- Trey Hedden (QB), hasn't played since Week 6 (125 pass attempts in 4 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Liberty and New Mexico State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Liberty and New Mexico State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Liberty's and New Mexico State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsLiberty 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Liberty and New Mexico State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Liberty 20.9 points better (45th to 119th). PRIME also has Liberty ahead, by 23.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Liberty ahead (13th to 123rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedLiberty 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Liberty's offense ranks 25th in adjusted EPA per play, and the New Mexico State defense it faces ranks 63rd in EPA per play allowed. New Mexico State's offense ranks 130th against Liberty's 20th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Liberty's offense against New Mexico State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Liberty's run game: 5th in adjusted EPA per rush, against New Mexico State's 62nd-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPALiberty 7–1
Who's more efficient, Liberty or New Mexico State?
Liberty is about as good throwing (47th in EPA per pass) as running (37th). New Mexico State is better running (74th in EPA per rush) than throwing (133rd). Liberty's run defense ranks 38th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringLiberty 2–0
Who scores more, Liberty or New Mexico State?
Liberty outscores FBS opponents by 20.3 a game, and New Mexico State is outscored by 3.7. Liberty's offense ranks 33rd in scoring, and the New Mexico State defense it faces ranks 74th in points allowed. New Mexico State's offense ranks 113th against Liberty's 7th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Liberty's offense against New Mexico State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseLiberty 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Liberty's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 7th in 3rd down conversion rate, and New Mexico State's defense ranks 80th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. New Mexico State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 42nd, against a defense ranked 56th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseLiberty 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Liberty's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 13th in SUPLEX allowed, and New Mexico State's offense is bottom-40 in SUPLEX (101st). That's a mismatch. New Mexico State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 68th in sack rate, and Liberty's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (105th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontLiberty 11–1
Who wins up front?
Liberty has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Liberty ranks 4th and New Mexico State 115th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversLiberty 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Liberty is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and New Mexico State is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for Liberty. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentLiberty 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Liberty has the more talented roster (79th in the 247Sports talent composite; New Mexico State is 135th). Liberty also plays further above its talent: +9.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to New Mexico State's −0.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSLiberty 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Liberty is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.1). New Mexico State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−2.0).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Liberty at New Mexico State: questions people ask
Liberty vs. New Mexico State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Liberty, 94% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Liberty's best matchup is its defense, 20th in EPA per play allowed, against New Mexico State's offense at 130th.
Where can I watch Liberty vs. New Mexico State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Liberty vs. New Mexico State?
SP+ projects Liberty 32–13. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Liberty vs. New Mexico State series history?
Liberty leads 7–2. Last meeting: Liberty won 30–27 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Liberty vs. New Mexico State?
Liberty: Deshawn Purdie (1,453 passing yards), Kam Davis (603 rushing yards) and Makai Jackson (626 receiving yards). New Mexico State: Trey Hedden (914 passing yards), James Jones (885 rushing yards) and Tyler King (313 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Liberty at New Mexico State?
Liberty's is Deshawn Purdie (1,453 passing yards this season); New Mexico State's is Trey Hedden (914 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Liberty at New Mexico State?
New Mexico State: Trey Hedden (QB) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Liberty: every stat, rank and the schedule
- New Mexico State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Delaware at Kennesaw State: the numbers' pick
- Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: the numbers' pick
- Missouri State at Florida International: the numbers' pick
- Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.