Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State Prediction, Week 10 2026
90% chance to win
- Jacksonville State's scoring defense has the edge on Sam Houston's scoring offense. Jacksonville State is above average (32nd) in points allowed, and Sam Houston is bottom-20 (130th) in points per game.
- Jacksonville State's big-play defense has the edge on Sam Houston's big-play offense. Jacksonville State is above average (39th) in explosive plays allowed, and Sam Houston is bottom-20 (123rd) in explosive play rate.
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State
Projected score: Sam Houston 14, Jacksonville State 32 (total 47).SP+: Jacksonville State by 17.9, 90% chance to win.PRIME: Jacksonville State by 15.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- AmFirst Stadium
- Series
- Jacksonville State leads 4–2
- Last meeting
- Jacksonville State 29–27 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Jacksonville State by 17.9 | 90% | 47 |
| PRIME | Jacksonville State by 15.4 | 86% | |
| Elo | Jacksonville State | 94% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Sam Houston or Jacksonville State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State?
All three ratings favor Jacksonville State, by 15.4 to 17.9 points, and it isn't close. Jacksonville State's best matchup is its scoring defense, 32nd in points allowed, against Sam Houston's scoring offense at 130th. Sam Houston's way back in is its takeaway defense, 44th in interceptions per pass, against Jacksonville State's ball security at 118th.
Sam Houston with the ball
Jacksonville State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Sam Houston and Jacksonville State?
Sam Houston
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Jacksonville State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Sam Houston and Jacksonville State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Sam Houston and Jacksonville State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Sam Houston's and Jacksonville State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsJacksonville State 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Sam Houston and Jacksonville State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Jacksonville State 15.4 points better (84th to 129th). PRIME also has Jacksonville State ahead, by 12.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Jacksonville State ahead (69th to 132nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedJacksonville State 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Sam Houston's offense ranks 134th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Jacksonville State defense it faces ranks 84th in EPA per play allowed. Jacksonville State's offense ranks 62nd against Sam Houston's 97th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Jacksonville State's offense against Sam Houston's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Jacksonville State's run game: 64th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Sam Houston's 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Sam Houston's defense falls from 63rd to 97th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAJacksonville State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Sam Houston or Jacksonville State?
Sam Houston is better throwing (118th in EPA per pass) than running (135th). Jacksonville State's pass defense ranks 31st, so the defense has the better of it. Jacksonville State is about as good throwing (47th in EPA per pass) as running (47th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringJacksonville State 2–0
Who scores more, Sam Houston or Jacksonville State?
Sam Houston is outscored by 7.1 a game, and Jacksonville State by 7.0. Sam Houston's offense ranks 130th in scoring, and the Jacksonville State defense it faces ranks 32nd in points allowed. Jacksonville State's offense ranks 77th against Sam Houston's 72nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseJacksonville State 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Sam Houston has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 106th, against a defense ranked 130th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Jacksonville State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 47th in yards per carry, and Sam Houston's defense ranks 111th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseJacksonville State 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Sam Houston's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 44th in interception rate, and Jacksonville State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (118th). That's a mismatch. Jacksonville State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 39th in explosive plays allowed, and Sam Houston's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (123rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontJacksonville State 7–5
Who wins up front?
Jacksonville State has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Jacksonville State ranks 21st and Sam Houston 131st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversSam Houston 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Sam Houston is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and Jacksonville State is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Sam Houston. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentJacksonville State 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Jacksonville State has the more talented roster (93rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Sam Houston is 117th). Jacksonville State also plays further above its talent: +1.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Sam Houston's −11.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSJacksonville State 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Sam Houston is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9). Jacksonville State is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7). Sam Houston's record is 1.6 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: questions people ask
Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Jacksonville State, 90% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Jacksonville State's best matchup is its scoring defense, 32nd in points allowed, against Sam Houston's scoring offense at 130th.
Where can I watch Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET at AmFirst Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State?
SP+ projects Jacksonville State 32–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State series history?
Jacksonville State leads 4–2. Last meeting: Jacksonville State won 29–27 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State?
Sam Houston: Landyn Locke (1,703 passing yards), Alton McCaskill (226 rushing yards) and Tim Burns Jr. (392 receiving yards). Jacksonville State: Caden Creel (1,760 passing yards), Jalen Likely (219 rushing yards) and Deondre Johnson (438 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Sam Houston at Jacksonville State?
Sam Houston's is Landyn Locke (1,703 passing yards this season); Jacksonville State's is Caden Creel (1,760 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Sam Houston: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Jacksonville State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Delaware at Kennesaw State: the numbers' pick
- Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: the numbers' pick
- Missouri State at Florida International: the numbers' pick
- Liberty at New Mexico State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.