Missouri State vs. Florida International Prediction, Week 10 2026
73% chance to win
- Florida International's run defense has the edge on Missouri State's run game. Florida International is above average (46th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Missouri State is bottom-20 (126th) in EPA per rush.
- Florida International's defense has the edge on Missouri State's offense. Florida International is above average (40th) in EPA per play allowed, and Missouri State is bottom-40 (113th) in EPA per play.
Missouri State at Florida International
Projected score: Missouri State 17, Florida International 28 (total 45).SP+: Florida International by 11.5, 79% chance to win.PRIME: Florida International by 7.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Pitbull Stadium
- Series
- Missouri State leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- Missouri State 28–21 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Florida International by 11.5 | 79% | 45 |
| PRIME | Florida International by 7.4 | 70% | |
| Elo | Florida International | 70% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Missouri State or Florida International?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Missouri State vs. Florida International?
All three ratings favor Florida International, by 7.4 to 11.5 points. Florida International's best matchup is its run defense, 46th in EPA per rush allowed, against Missouri State's run game at 126th. Missouri State's way back in is its run defense, 79th in yards per carry allowed, against Florida International's run game at 131st.
Missouri State with the ball
Florida International with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Missouri State and Florida International?
Missouri State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Florida International
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Missouri State and Florida International compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Missouri State and Florida International are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Missouri State's and Florida International's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsFlorida International 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Missouri State and Florida International?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Florida International 9.0 points better (100th to 128th). PRIME also has Florida International ahead, by 4.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Florida International ahead (104th to 117th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedMissouri State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Missouri State's offense ranks 113th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Florida International defense it faces ranks 40th in EPA per play allowed. Florida International's offense ranks 117th against Missouri State's 137th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Florida International's passing game: 87th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Missouri State's 129th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Missouri State's offense falls from 89th to 113th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAFlorida International 5–3
Who's more efficient, Missouri State or Florida International?
Missouri State is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (114th). Florida International's pass defense ranks 19th, so the defense has the better of it. Florida International is better throwing (95th in EPA per pass) than running (126th). Missouri State's pass defense ranks 111th. On third down, Florida International has the edge: its offense ranks 58th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 118th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Missouri State or Florida International?
Missouri State is outscored by 6.5 a game, and Florida International is outscored by 1.5. Missouri State's offense ranks 92nd in scoring, and the Florida International defense it faces ranks 34th in points allowed. Florida International's offense ranks 129th against Missouri State's 117th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseMissouri State 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Missouri State has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 82nd, against a defense ranked 76th in explosive plays allowed. Florida International's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 53rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Missouri State's defense ranks 123rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseFlorida International 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Missouri State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 79th in yards per carry allowed, and Florida International's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (131st). Florida International's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 27th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Missouri State's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (105th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontFlorida International 8–4
Who wins up front?
Florida International has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Florida International ranks 26th and Missouri State 123rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversMissouri State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Missouri State is −0.3 a game and Florida International −0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentFlorida International 9–1
Which team has more talent?
Florida International has the more talented roster (90th in the 247Sports talent composite; Missouri State is 119th). Florida International also plays further above its talent: −4.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Missouri State's −9.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Missouri State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). Florida International is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Florida International's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Missouri State at Florida International: questions people ask
Missouri State vs. Florida International prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Florida International, 73% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Florida International's best matchup is its run defense, 46th in EPA per rush allowed, against Missouri State's run game at 126th.
Where can I watch Missouri State vs. Florida International, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET at Pitbull Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Missouri State vs. Florida International?
SP+ projects Florida International 28–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Missouri State vs. Florida International series history?
Missouri State leads 1–0. Last meeting: Missouri State won 28–21 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Missouri State vs. Florida International?
Missouri State: Henry Belin IV (1,095 passing yards), Ramone Green Jr. (266 rushing yards) and Isaiah Myers (858 receiving yards). Florida International: J.J. Kohl (1,768 passing yards), Devonte Lyons (417 rushing yards) and Maguire Anderson (597 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Missouri State at Florida International?
Missouri State's is Henry Belin IV (1,095 passing yards this season); Florida International's is J.J. Kohl (1,768 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Missouri State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida International: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Delaware at Kennesaw State: the numbers' pick
- Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: the numbers' pick
- Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: the numbers' pick
- Liberty at New Mexico State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.