Georgia vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayGeorgia67% chance to win
- Georgia should stay on the field on 3rd down. Georgia is top-10 (8th) in 3rd down conversion, and Ole Miss is bottom-40 (100th) in 3rd downs allowed.
- Georgia should hit big plays. Georgia is top-10 (6th) in explosive play rate, and Ole Miss is bottom-40 (94th) in explosive plays allowed.
Georgia at Ole Miss
Projected score: Georgia 36, Ole Miss 26 (total 62).SP+: Georgia by 9.9, 76% chance to win.PRIME: Georgia by 8.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ABC
- Where
- Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- Line
- Georgia −3, total 56.5
- Line movement
- Opened Georgia −4.5; moved 1.5 points toward Ole Miss. Total opened 55.5, up 1.
- Series
- Georgia leads 34–15–1
- Last meeting
- Ole Miss 39–34 in 2025
- Ole Miss injuries
- Kewan Lacy (RB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Georgia by 9.9 | 76% | 62 |
| PRIME | Georgia by 8.8 | 74% | |
| Elo | Georgia | 52% | |
| The line | Georgia −3, opened −4.5 | 56.5, opened 55.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Georgia or Ole Miss?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Georgia vs. Ole Miss?
All three ratings favor Georgia, by 8.8 to 9.9 points. Georgia's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 8th in 3rd down conversion, against Ole Miss' 3rd down defense at 100th. Ole Miss' way back in is its offensive line, 14th in line yards per carry, against Georgia's run-stopping front at 58th. We left out the edges built on Lacy, who's out.
Georgia with the ball
Ole Miss with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Georgia and Ole Miss?
Georgia
- Thomas Blackshear (#2), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Chauncey Bowens (RB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Amaris Williams (#17), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyriq Green (#23), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- KJ Bolden (DB), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Isiah Canion (#6), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Ole Miss
- Lacy (RB), out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31). Dislocated his left shoulder against Texas, the second time he's hurt that shoulder since offseason surgery. Pete Golding ruled him out for Auburn on Oct. 26 and gave no timeline; Nov. 7 against Georgia is at risk (Fox Sports, Yahoo Sports). (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Izaiah Hartrup (#12), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cedrick Beavers (#13), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Edwin Joseph (#14), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- MJ Preston (#19), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ant Davis Jr. (#26), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kervin Johnson Jr. (#27), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Iverson McCoy (#34), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Nascar McCoy (#46), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Emanuel Faulkner (#71), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jalyn Crawford (#0), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Georgia and Ole Miss compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Georgia and Ole Miss are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Georgia's and Ole Miss' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsGeorgia 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Georgia and Ole Miss?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia 12.4 points better (2nd to 16th). PRIME also has Georgia ahead, by 11.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Georgia ahead (4th to 6th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Georgia's offense ranks 4th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Ole Miss defense it faces ranks 65th in EPA per play allowed. Ole Miss' offense ranks 8th against Georgia's 43rd-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia's backs in the open field: 9th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Ole Miss' 84th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Ole Miss' defense climbs from 103rd to 65th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAGeorgia 8–0
Who's more efficient, Georgia or Ole Miss?
Georgia is about as good throwing (3rd in EPA per pass) as running (16th). Ole Miss is about as good throwing (33rd in EPA per pass) as running (34th). On third down, Georgia has the edge: its offense ranks 8th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 85th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringGeorgia 2–0
Who scores more, Georgia or Ole Miss?
Georgia outscores FBS opponents by 26.1 a game, and Ole Miss by 13.1. Georgia's offense ranks 4th in scoring, and the Ole Miss defense it faces ranks 63rd in points allowed. Ole Miss' offense ranks 17th against Georgia's 11th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia's offense against Ole Miss' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseGeorgia 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Georgia's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Ole Miss' defense ranks 100th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Ole Miss' best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 12th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Georgia's defense ranks 58th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseGeorgia 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Georgia's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 16th in yards per carry allowed, and Ole Miss' offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (71st).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontGeorgia 10–2
Who wins up front?
Georgia has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Georgia ranks 14th and Ole Miss 101st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversGeorgia 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Georgia is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Ole Miss is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Georgia. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Georgia's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentGeorgia 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Georgia has the more talented roster (1st in the 247Sports talent composite; Ole Miss is 14th). Georgia also plays further above its talent: +5.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Ole Miss' +0.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyGeorgia 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Ole Miss' roster is valued at $34.1M, Georgia's at $31.3M. Dollar for dollar, Georgia plays better: +12.2 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −2.1 for Ole Miss.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSGeorgia 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Georgia is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.2). Ole Miss is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.6). Ole Miss' record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Georgia at Ole Miss: questions people ask
Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Georgia, 67% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Georgia's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 8th in 3rd down conversion, against Ole Miss' 3rd down defense at 100th.
Where can I watch Georgia vs. Ole Miss, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. It's on ABC.
What's the projected score of Georgia vs. Ole Miss?
SP+ projects Georgia 36–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Georgia at Ole Miss?
DraftKings has Georgia −3, total 56.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Georgia vs. Ole Miss series history?
Georgia leads 34–15–1. Last meeting: Ole Miss won 39–34 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Georgia vs. Ole Miss?
Georgia: Gunner Stockton (1,681 passing yards), Dwight Phillips Jr. (415 rushing yards) and Craig Dandridge (349 receiving yards). Ole Miss: Trinidad Chambliss (2,223 passing yards), Lacy (386 rushing yards) and Deuce Alexander (669 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Georgia at Ole Miss?
Georgia's is Gunner Stockton (1,681 passing yards this season); Ole Miss' is Trinidad Chambliss (2,223 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Georgia at Ole Miss?
Ole Miss: Lacy (RB), out.
Keep going
- Georgia: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Ole Miss: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.