Georgia State vs. App State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
59% chance to win
- App State should hit big plays. App State is top-25 (23rd) in explosive play rate, and Georgia State is bottom-20 (136th) in explosive plays allowed.
Georgia State at App State
Projected score: Georgia State 28, App State 35 (total 64).SP+: App State by 6.8, 69% chance to win.PRIME: App State by 1.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 2:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Kidd Brewer Stadium
- Series
- App State leads 12–0
- Last meeting
- App State 41–20 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | App State by 6.8 | 69% | 64 |
| PRIME | App State by 1.5 | 54% | |
| Elo | App State | 54% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Georgia State or App State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Georgia State vs. App State?
All three ratings favor App State, by 1.5 to 6.8 points. App State's best matchup is its big-play offense, 23rd in explosive play rate, against Georgia State's big-play defense at 136th. Georgia State's way back in is its pass protection, 23rd in sacks allowed per dropback, against App State's pass rush at 123rd.
Georgia State with the ball
App State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Georgia State and App State?
Georgia State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
App State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Georgia State and App State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Georgia State and App State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Georgia State's and App State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Georgia State and App State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has App State 4.3 points better (95th to 105th). PRIME has Georgia State by 1.0 instead. The two ratings split on Georgia State's offense: 75th in SP+, 38th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Georgia State ahead (102nd to 106th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedGeorgia State 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Georgia State's offense ranks 43rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the App State defense it faces ranks 94th in EPA per play allowed. App State's offense ranks 85th against Georgia State's 67th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia State's offense against App State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia State's efficiency: 40th in adjusted success rate, against App State's 118th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and App State's defense falls from 63rd to 94th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAGeorgia State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Georgia State or App State?
Georgia State is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (37th). App State's pass defense ranks 58th, so that's an edge. App State is better throwing (39th in EPA per pass) than running (122nd). Georgia State's pass defense ranks 37th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Georgia State or App State?
Georgia State outscores FBS opponents by 7.3 a game, and App State by 4.2. Georgia State's offense ranks 32nd in scoring, and the App State defense it faces ranks 55th in points allowed. App State's offense ranks 80th against Georgia State's 92nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseGeorgia State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Georgia State's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 33rd in SUPLEX, and App State's defense ranks 75th in SUPLEX allowed. App State's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 23rd in explosive play rate, and Georgia State's defense ranks 136th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseApp State 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Georgia State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 24th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and App State's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (112th). That's a mismatch. App State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 8th in interception rate, and Georgia State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (98th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontGeorgia State 9–3
Who wins up front?
Georgia State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Georgia State ranks 16th and App State 132nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversApp State 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
App State is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Georgia State is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for App State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
App State has the more talented roster (85th in the 247Sports talent composite; Georgia State is 105th). App State also plays further above its talent: −2.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Georgia State's −3.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSApp State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Georgia State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). App State is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.5).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Georgia State at App State: questions people ask
Georgia State vs. App State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick App State, 59% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. App State's best matchup is its big-play offense, 23rd in explosive play rate, against Georgia State's big-play defense at 136th.
Where can I watch Georgia State vs. App State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 2:30 PM ET at Kidd Brewer Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Georgia State vs. App State?
SP+ projects App State 35–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Georgia State vs. App State series history?
App State leads 12–0. Last meeting: App State won 41–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Georgia State vs. App State?
Georgia State: Cameran Brown (1,374 passing yards), Qwantavius Wiggins (445 rushing yards) and Rodshaun Dorsey (459 receiving yards). App State: Malachi Singleton (1,773 passing yards), Jaquari Lewis (420 rushing yards) and Sam Pickett III (476 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Georgia State at App State?
Georgia State's is Cameran Brown (1,374 passing yards this season); App State's is Malachi Singleton (1,773 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Georgia State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- App State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at Southern Miss: the numbers' pick
- Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- UL Monroe at Arkansas State: the numbers' pick
- Marshall at Georgia Southern: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.