Marshall vs. Georgia Southern Prediction, Week 10 2026
70% chance to win
- Georgia Southern should keep its quarterback clean. Georgia Southern is top-10 (10th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and Marshall is bottom-20 (116th) in sack rate.
- Georgia Southern's 3rd down defense has the edge on Marshall's 3rd down offense. Georgia Southern is above average (34th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Marshall is bottom-20 (134th) in 3rd down conversion.
Marshall at Georgia Southern
Projected score: Marshall 25, Georgia Southern 34 (total 59).SP+: Georgia Southern by 8.4, 73% chance to win.PRIME: Georgia Southern by 12.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Allen E. Paulson Stadium
- Series
- Tied 2–2
- Last meeting
- Georgia Southern 24–19 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Georgia Southern by 8.4 | 73% | 59 |
| PRIME | Georgia Southern by 12.4 | 81% | |
| Elo | Georgia Southern | 57% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Marshall or Georgia Southern?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Marshall vs. Georgia Southern?
All three ratings favor Georgia Southern, by 8.4 to 12.4 points. Georgia Southern's best matchup is its pass protection, 10th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Marshall's pass rush at 116th. Marshall doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces.
Marshall with the ball
Georgia Southern with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Marshall and Georgia Southern?
Marshall
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Georgia Southern
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Marshall and Georgia Southern compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Marshall and Georgia Southern are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Marshall's and Georgia Southern's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsGeorgia Southern 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Marshall and Georgia Southern?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia Southern 5.9 points better (94th to 111th). PRIME also has Georgia Southern ahead, by 9.9. Elo, which only sees results, has Marshall ahead (91st to 92nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedGeorgia Southern 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Marshall's offense ranks 90th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia Southern defense it faces ranks 68th in EPA per play allowed. Georgia Southern's offense ranks 47th against Marshall's 118th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia Southern's offense against Marshall's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia Southern's passing game: 31st in adjusted EPA per pass, against Marshall's 115th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Marshall's offense falls from 63rd to 90th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAGeorgia Southern 5–2
Who's more efficient, Marshall or Georgia Southern?
Marshall is about as good throwing (64th in EPA per pass) as running (74th). Georgia Southern is better throwing (49th in EPA per pass) than running (96th). Marshall's pass defense ranks 134th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Georgia Southern has the edge: its offense ranks 82nd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 127th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringGeorgia Southern 2–0
Who scores more, Marshall or Georgia Southern?
Marshall is outscored by 6.3 a game, and Georgia Southern by 3.3. Marshall's offense ranks 99th in scoring, and the Georgia Southern defense it faces ranks 35th in points allowed. Georgia Southern's offense ranks 96th against Marshall's 111th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseGeorgia Southern 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Marshall has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 40th, against a defense ranked 36th in yards per carry allowed. Georgia Southern's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 48th in success rate, and Marshall's defense ranks 112th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseGeorgia Southern 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Georgia Southern's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 34th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Marshall's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (134th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontGeorgia Southern 8–4
Who wins up front?
Georgia Southern has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Georgia Southern ranks 15th and Marshall 97th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversGeorgia Southern 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Georgia Southern is +0.1 in turnover margin a game and Marshall is −1.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Georgia Southern. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Georgia Southern's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentGeorgia Southern 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Georgia Southern has the more talented roster (78th in the 247Sports talent composite; Marshall is 97th). Georgia Southern also plays further above its talent: −3.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Marshall's −6.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSMarshall 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Marshall is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). Georgia Southern is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+0.6). Marshall's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Marshall at Georgia Southern: questions people ask
Marshall vs. Georgia Southern prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Georgia Southern, 70% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Georgia Southern's best matchup is its pass protection, 10th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Marshall's pass rush at 116th.
Where can I watch Marshall vs. Georgia Southern, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Marshall vs. Georgia Southern?
SP+ projects Georgia Southern 34–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Marshall vs. Georgia Southern series history?
It's tied 2–2. Last meeting: Georgia Southern won 24–19 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Marshall vs. Georgia Southern?
Marshall: Zion Turner (608 passing yards), Judah Price (336 rushing yards) and Adrian Norton (173 receiving yards). Georgia Southern: Max Johnson (1,649 passing yards), David Mbadinga (233 rushing yards) and Josh Dallas (348 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Marshall at Georgia Southern?
Marshall's is Zion Turner (608 passing yards this season); Georgia Southern's is Max Johnson (1,649 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Marshall: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Georgia Southern: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at Southern Miss: the numbers' pick
- Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia State at App State: the numbers' pick
- UL Monroe at Arkansas State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.