James Madison vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayJames Madison90% chance to win
- James Madison's offense should move it. James Madison is top-10 (9th) in points per game, and Southern Miss is bottom-20 (118th) in points allowed.
- James Madison's run game has the edge on Southern Miss' run defense. James Madison is above average (39th) in EPA per rush, and Southern Miss is bottom-20 (128th) in EPA per rush allowed.
James Madison at Southern Miss
Projected score: James Madison 41, Southern Miss 17 (total 58).SP+: James Madison by 24.4, 96% chance to win.PRIME: James Madison by 11.1.
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- M. M. Roberts Stadium
- Series
- James Madison leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- James Madison 32–15 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | James Madison by 24.4 | 96% | 58 |
| PRIME | James Madison by 11.1 | 79% | |
| Elo | James Madison | 95% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, James Madison or Southern Miss?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide James Madison vs. Southern Miss?
All three ratings favor James Madison, by 11.1 to 24.4 points, and it isn't close. James Madison's best matchup is its scoring offense, 9th in points per game, against Southern Miss' scoring defense at 118th. Southern Miss' way back in is its offensive line, 38th in line yards per carry, against James Madison's run-stopping front at 71st.
James Madison with the ball
Southern Miss with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for James Madison and Southern Miss?
James Madison
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Southern Miss
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How James Madison and Southern Miss compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; James Madison and Southern Miss are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How James Madison's and Southern Miss' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsJames Madison 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate James Madison and Southern Miss?
On a neutral field, SP+ has James Madison 26.9 points better (29th to 126th). PRIME also has James Madison ahead, by 13.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has James Madison ahead (19th to 118th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedJames Madison 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
James Madison's offense ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Southern Miss defense it faces ranks 116th in EPA per play allowed. Southern Miss' offense ranks 129th against James Madison's 61st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against Southern Miss' defense. The biggest edge on the board is James Madison's backs in the open field: 13th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Southern Miss' 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and James Madison's defense falls from 20th to 61st in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAJames Madison 7–1
Who's more efficient, James Madison or Southern Miss?
James Madison is about as good throwing (41st in EPA per pass) as running (47th). Southern Miss is better running (55th in EPA per rush) than throwing (119th). James Madison's run defense ranks 18th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringJames Madison 2–0
Who scores more, James Madison or Southern Miss?
James Madison outscores FBS opponents by 20.2 a game, and Southern Miss is outscored by 4.1. James Madison's offense ranks 9th in scoring, and the Southern Miss defense it faces ranks 118th in points allowed. Southern Miss' offense ranks 77th against James Madison's 27th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against Southern Miss' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseJames Madison 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
James Madison's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 30th in yards per carry, and Southern Miss' defense ranks 115th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Southern Miss has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 55th, against a defense ranked 52nd in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseJames Madison 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
James Madison's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 42nd in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Southern Miss' offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (127th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontJames Madison 9–3
Who wins up front?
James Madison has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where James Madison ranks 33rd and Southern Miss 129th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversJames Madison 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
James Madison is +0.2 in turnover margin a game and Southern Miss is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for James Madison. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentSouthern Miss 8–2
Which team has more talent?
Southern Miss has the more talented roster (94th in the 247Sports talent composite; James Madison is 101st). But James Madison plays further above its talent: +15.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Southern Miss' −12.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSJames Madison 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
James Madison is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.4). Southern Miss is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.4). James Madison's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
James Madison at Southern Miss: questions people ask
James Madison vs. Southern Miss prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick James Madison, 90% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. James Madison's best matchup is its scoring offense, 9th in points per game, against Southern Miss' scoring defense at 118th.
Where can I watch James Madison vs. Southern Miss, and what time is it?
Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ET at M. M. Roberts Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of James Madison vs. Southern Miss?
SP+ projects James Madison 41–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the James Madison vs. Southern Miss series history?
James Madison leads 1–0. Last meeting: James Madison won 32–15 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in James Madison vs. Southern Miss?
James Madison: Camden Coleman (1,749 passing yards), George Pettaway (785 rushing yards) and Corey Scott (386 receiving yards). Southern Miss: Landy Lyddy (1,327 passing yards), Steven Robinson (716 rushing yards) and Mario Sanders II (604 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in James Madison at Southern Miss?
James Madison's is Camden Coleman (1,749 passing yards this season); Southern Miss' is Landy Lyddy (1,327 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- James Madison: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Southern Miss: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.