UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
89% chance to win
- Arkansas State's passing game has the edge on UL Monroe's pass defense. Arkansas State is above average (39th) in EPA per pass, and UL Monroe is bottom-40 (110th) in EPA per pass allowed.
UL Monroe at Arkansas State
Projected score: UL Monroe 19, Arkansas State 39 (total 58).SP+: Arkansas State by 19.7, 92% chance to win.PRIME: Arkansas State by 14.2.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Centennial Bank Stadium
- Series
- Arkansas State leads 26–9
- Last meeting
- UL Monroe 28–16 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Arkansas State by 19.7 | 92% | 58 |
| PRIME | Arkansas State by 14.2 | 84% | |
| Elo | Arkansas State | 90% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, UL Monroe or Arkansas State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State?
All three ratings favor Arkansas State, by 14.2 to 19.7 points, and it isn't close. Arkansas State's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 6th in interceptions per pass, against UL Monroe's ball security at 92nd. UL Monroe's way back in is its early-down offense, 30th in SUPLEX, against Arkansas State's early-down defense at 128th.
UL Monroe with the ball
Arkansas State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for UL Monroe and Arkansas State?
UL Monroe
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Arkansas State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How UL Monroe and Arkansas State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UL Monroe and Arkansas State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How UL Monroe's and Arkansas State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsArkansas State 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate UL Monroe and Arkansas State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Arkansas State 17.2 points better (97th to 133rd). PRIME also has Arkansas State ahead, by 11.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has Arkansas State ahead (103rd to 135th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedArkansas State 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
UL Monroe's offense ranks 127th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arkansas State defense it faces ranks 109th in EPA per play allowed. Arkansas State's offense ranks 51st against UL Monroe's 122nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Arkansas State's offense against UL Monroe's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Arkansas State's passing game: 39th in adjusted EPA per pass, against UL Monroe's 110th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAArkansas State 7–1
Who's more efficient, UL Monroe or Arkansas State?
UL Monroe is about as good throwing (126th in EPA per pass) as running (118th). Arkansas State is better throwing (52nd in EPA per pass) than running (67th). UL Monroe's pass defense ranks 116th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Arkansas State has the edge: its offense ranks 72nd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 97th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringArkansas State 2–0
Who scores more, UL Monroe or Arkansas State?
UL Monroe is outscored by 16.8 a game, and Arkansas State by 1.6. UL Monroe's offense ranks 122nd in scoring, and the Arkansas State defense it faces ranks 97th in points allowed. Arkansas State's offense ranks 69th against UL Monroe's 134th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Arkansas State's offense against UL Monroe's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseArkansas State 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
UL Monroe's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 30th in SUPLEX, and Arkansas State's defense ranks 128th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. Arkansas State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 84th in yards per carry, and UL Monroe's defense ranks 122nd in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUL Monroe 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Arkansas State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 6th in interception rate, and UL Monroe's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (92nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontArkansas State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Arkansas State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Arkansas State ranks 74th and UL Monroe 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversArkansas State 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Arkansas State is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and UL Monroe is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Arkansas State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentArkansas State 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Arkansas State has the more talented roster (91st in the 247Sports talent composite; UL Monroe is 132nd). Arkansas State also plays further above its talent: −3.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UL Monroe's −14.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSArkansas State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
UL Monroe is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.3). Arkansas State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). UL Monroe's record is 0.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
UL Monroe at Arkansas State: questions people ask
UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Arkansas State, 89% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Arkansas State's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 6th in interceptions per pass, against UL Monroe's ball security at 92nd.
Where can I watch UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET at Centennial Bank Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State?
SP+ projects Arkansas State 39–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State series history?
Arkansas State leads 26–9. Last meeting: UL Monroe won 28–16 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State?
UL Monroe: Aidan Armenta (1,349 passing yards), Bryson Roland (147 rushing yards) and Marcellus Jackson (372 receiving yards). Arkansas State: Trey Owens (1,972 passing yards), Solomon Baggett (328 rushing yards) and Jaylen Bonelli (452 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in UL Monroe at Arkansas State?
UL Monroe's is Aidan Armenta (1,349 passing yards this season); Arkansas State's is Trey Owens (1,972 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- UL Monroe: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Arkansas State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at Southern Miss: the numbers' pick
- Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia State at App State: the numbers' pick
- Marshall at Georgia Southern: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.