Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction, Week 10 2026
74% chance to win
- Coastal Carolina's pass rush has the edge on Old Dominion's pass protection. Coastal Carolina is above average (26th) in sack rate, and Old Dominion is bottom-20 (134th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina
Projected score: Old Dominion 19, Coastal Carolina 26 (total 46).SP+: Coastal Carolina by 6.9, 69% chance to win.PRIME: Coastal Carolina by 10.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 1:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Brooks Stadium (SC)
- Series
- Old Dominion leads 3–2
- Last meeting
- Old Dominion 47–7 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Coastal Carolina by 6.9 | 69% | 46 |
| PRIME | Coastal Carolina by 10.1 | 76% | |
| Elo | Coastal Carolina | 78% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Old Dominion or Coastal Carolina?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina?
All three ratings favor Coastal Carolina, by 6.9 to 10.1 points. Coastal Carolina's best matchup is its pass rush, 26th in sack rate, against Old Dominion's pass protection at 134th. Old Dominion's way back in is its defense, 17th in success rate allowed, against Coastal Carolina's offense at 112th.
Old Dominion with the ball
Coastal Carolina with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion
- Quinn Henicle (RB), hasn't played since Week 7 (68 carries in 6 games before that)
Coastal Carolina
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Old Dominion's and Coastal Carolina's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsCoastal Carolina 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Old Dominion and Coastal Carolina?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Coastal Carolina 4.4 points better (109th to 124th). PRIME also has Coastal Carolina ahead, by 7.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Coastal Carolina ahead (107th to 124th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedCoastal Carolina 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Old Dominion's offense ranks 138th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Coastal Carolina defense it faces ranks 107th in EPA per play allowed. Coastal Carolina's offense ranks 80th against Old Dominion's 32nd-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Old Dominion or Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion is about as good throwing (137th in EPA per pass) as running (133rd). Coastal Carolina is about as good throwing (58th in EPA per pass) as running (67th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringCoastal Carolina 2–0
Who scores more, Old Dominion or Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion is outscored by 11.5 a game, and Coastal Carolina by 1.7. Old Dominion's offense ranks 135th in scoring, and the Coastal Carolina defense it faces ranks 72nd in points allowed. Coastal Carolina's offense ranks 80th against Old Dominion's 102nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseCoastal Carolina 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Old Dominion has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 86th, against a defense ranked 107th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Coastal Carolina has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 46th, against a defense ranked 35th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseOld Dominion 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Old Dominion's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 17th in success rate allowed, and Coastal Carolina's offense is bottom-40 in success rate (112th). That's a mismatch. Coastal Carolina's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 26th in sack rate, and Old Dominion's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (134th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontCoastal Carolina 7–5
Who wins up front?
Coastal Carolina has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Coastal Carolina ranks 28th and Old Dominion 138th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversCoastal Carolina 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Coastal Carolina is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Old Dominion is −0.5. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Coastal Carolina. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Coastal Carolina's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.9 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentCoastal Carolina 8–2
Which team has more talent?
Coastal Carolina has the more talented roster (106th in the 247Sports talent composite; Old Dominion is 122nd). Coastal Carolina also plays further above its talent: −4.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Old Dominion's −7.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSCoastal Carolina 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Old Dominion is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Coastal Carolina is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.4).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: questions people ask
Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Coastal Carolina, 74% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Coastal Carolina's best matchup is its pass rush, 26th in sack rate, against Old Dominion's pass protection at 134th.
Where can I watch Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 1:00 PM ET at Brooks Stadium (SC). It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina?
SP+ projects Coastal Carolina 26–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina series history?
Old Dominion leads 3–2. Last meeting: Old Dominion won 47–7 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion: Quinn Henicle (650 passing yards), Devin Roche (400 rushing yards) and Josh Rodriguez (389 receiving yards). Coastal Carolina: Deuce Bailey (1,931 passing yards), Dominic Knicely (483 rushing yards) and Clayton Coppock (351 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion's is Quinn Henicle (650 passing yards this season); Coastal Carolina's is Deuce Bailey (1,931 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion: Quinn Henicle (RB) hasn't played since Week 7.
Keep going
- Old Dominion: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Coastal Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at Southern Miss: the numbers' pick
- Georgia State at App State: the numbers' pick
- UL Monroe at Arkansas State: the numbers' pick
- Marshall at Georgia Southern: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.