Hawai'i vs. UTEP Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
86% chance to win
- Hawai'i's scoring defense has the edge on UTEP's scoring offense. Hawai'i is middle of the pack (69th) in points allowed, and UTEP is bottom-20 (138th) in points per game.
Hawai'i at UTEP
Projected score: Hawai'i 29, UTEP 16 (total 45).SP+: Hawai'i by 12.4, 81% chance to win.PRIME: Hawai'i by 14.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET
- TV
- FS1
- Where
- Sun Bowl
- Series
- Hawai'i leads 18–13
- Last meeting
- UTEP 51–20 in 2004
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Hawai'i by 12.4 | 81% | 45 |
| PRIME | Hawai'i by 14.8 | 85% | |
| Elo | Hawai'i | 91% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Hawai'i or UTEP?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Hawai'i vs. UTEP?
All three ratings favor Hawai'i, by 12.4 to 14.8 points, and it isn't close. Hawai'i's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 41st in interceptions per pass, against UTEP's ball security at 131st. UTEP's way back in is its run game, 54th in yards per carry, against Hawai'i's run defense at 112th.
Hawai'i with the ball
UTEP with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Hawai'i and UTEP?
Hawai'i
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
UTEP
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Hawai'i and UTEP compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Hawai'i and UTEP are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Hawai'i's and UTEP's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsHawai'i 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Hawai'i and UTEP?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Hawai'i 14.9 points better (107th to 134th). PRIME also has Hawai'i ahead, by 17.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Hawai'i ahead (84th to 137th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedHawai'i 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Hawai'i's offense ranks 104th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UTEP defense it faces ranks 132nd in EPA per play allowed. UTEP's offense ranks 135th against Hawai'i's 119th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Hawai'i's offense against UTEP's defense. The biggest edge on the board is UTEP's big plays: 16th in adjusted explosiveness, against Hawai'i's 83rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAHawai'i 8–0
Who's more efficient, Hawai'i or UTEP?
Hawai'i is about as good throwing (101st in EPA per pass) as running (103rd). UTEP is better running (118th in EPA per rush) than throwing (135th). Hawai'i's run defense ranks 104th. On third down, Hawai'i has the edge: its offense ranks 91st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 124th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringHawai'i 2–0
Who scores more, Hawai'i or UTEP?
Hawai'i is outscored by 3.7 a game, and UTEP is outscored by 22.4. Hawai'i's offense ranks 119th in scoring, and the UTEP defense it faces ranks 133rd in points allowed. UTEP's offense ranks 138th against Hawai'i's 69th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Hawai'i's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 75th in 3rd down conversion rate, and UTEP's defense ranks 102nd in 3rd down conversions allowed. UTEP's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 54th in yards per carry, and Hawai'i's defense ranks 112th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUTEP 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Hawai'i's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 41st in interception rate, and UTEP's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (131st). That's a mismatch. UTEP's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 78th in explosive plays allowed, and Hawai'i's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (119th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontHawai'i 8–4
Who wins up front?
Hawai'i has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Hawai'i ranks 33rd and UTEP 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversHawai'i 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Hawai'i is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and UTEP is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Hawai'i. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Hawai'i's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentHawai'i 6–3
Which team has more talent?
UTEP has the more talented roster (102nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Hawai'i is 115th). But Hawai'i plays further above its talent: −3.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UTEP's −19.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSHawai'i 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Hawai'i is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.6). UTEP is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.7). Hawai'i's record is 1.6 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Hawai'i at UTEP: questions people ask
Hawai'i vs. UTEP prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Hawai'i, 86% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Hawai'i's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 41st in interceptions per pass, against UTEP's ball security at 131st.
Where can I watch Hawai'i vs. UTEP, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET at Sun Bowl. It's on FS1.
What's the projected score of Hawai'i vs. UTEP?
SP+ projects Hawai'i 29–16. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Hawai'i vs. UTEP series history?
Hawai'i leads 18–13. Last meeting: UTEP won 51–20 in 2004.
Who are the players to watch in Hawai'i vs. UTEP?
Hawai'i: Micah Alejado (2,225 passing yards), Devon Rice (386 rushing yards) and Kainoa Carvalho (399 receiving yards). UTEP: EJ Colson (701 passing yards), Tavorus Jones (262 rushing yards) and Jaden Smith (285 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Hawai'i at UTEP?
Hawai'i's is Micah Alejado (2,225 passing yards this season); UTEP's is EJ Colson (701 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Hawai'i: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTEP: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.