Northern Illinois vs. San José State Prediction, Week 10 2026
88% chance to win
- San José State should get home. San José State is top-25 (19th) in sack rate, and Northern Illinois is bottom-20 (124th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
- San José State's 3rd down defense has the edge on Northern Illinois' 3rd down offense. San José State is above average (43rd) in 3rd downs allowed, and Northern Illinois is bottom-20 (126th) in 3rd down conversion.
Northern Illinois at San José State
Projected score: Northern Illinois 13, San José State 29 (total 42).SP+: San José State by 16.6, 88% chance to win.PRIME: San José State by 17.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET
- TV
- MW+
- Where
- CEFCU Stadium
- Series
- Northern Illinois leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- Northern Illinois 18–17 in 1995
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | San José State by 16.6 | 88% | 42 |
| PRIME | San José State by 17.4 | 89% | |
| Elo | San José State | 88% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Northern Illinois or San José State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Northern Illinois vs. San José State?
All three ratings favor San José State, by 16.6 to 17.4 points, and it isn't close. San José State's best matchup is its pass rush, 19th in sack rate, against Northern Illinois' pass protection at 124th. Northern Illinois' way back in is its takeaway defense, 47th in interceptions per pass, against San José State's ball security at 101st.
Northern Illinois with the ball
San José State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Northern Illinois and San José State?
Northern Illinois
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
San José State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Northern Illinois and San José State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Northern Illinois and San José State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Northern Illinois' and San José State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsSan José State 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Northern Illinois and San José State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has San José State 14.1 points better (114th to 136th). PRIME also has San José State ahead, by 14.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has San José State ahead (97th to 131st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedSan José State 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Northern Illinois' offense ranks 120th in adjusted EPA per play, and the San José State defense it faces ranks 58th in EPA per play allowed. San José State's offense ranks 96th against Northern Illinois' 128th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is San José State's offense against Northern Illinois' defense. The biggest edge on the board is San José State's big plays: 64th in adjusted explosiveness, against Northern Illinois' 115th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPASan José State 8–0
Who's more efficient, Northern Illinois or San José State?
Northern Illinois is about as good throwing (124th in EPA per pass) as running (114th). San José State is better throwing (70th in EPA per pass) than running (111th). Northern Illinois' pass defense ranks 135th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, San José State has the edge: its offense ranks 99th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 138th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringSan José State 2–0
Who scores more, Northern Illinois or San José State?
Northern Illinois is outscored by 21.4 a game, and San José State is outscored by 2.4. Northern Illinois' offense ranks 136th in scoring, and the San José State defense it faces ranks 54th in points allowed. San José State's offense ranks 123rd against Northern Illinois' 136th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseSan José State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Northern Illinois has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 96th, against a defense ranked 91st in yards per carry allowed. San José State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 109th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Northern Illinois' defense ranks 137th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseSan José State 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Northern Illinois' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 47th in interception rate, and San José State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (101st). San José State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 19th in sack rate, and Northern Illinois' offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (124th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontSan José State 8–4
Who wins up front?
San José State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Northern Illinois ranks 20th and San José State 93rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversSan José State 5–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
San José State is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and Northern Illinois is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for San José State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
San José State has the more talented roster (110th in the 247Sports talent composite; Northern Illinois is 126th). San José State also plays further above its talent: −5.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Northern Illinois' −17.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSSan José State 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Northern Illinois is −4.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.1). San José State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.2). Northern Illinois' record is 1.4 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Northern Illinois at San José State: questions people ask
Northern Illinois vs. San José State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick San José State, 88% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. San José State's best matchup is its pass rush, 19th in sack rate, against Northern Illinois' pass protection at 124th.
Where can I watch Northern Illinois vs. San José State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET at CEFCU Stadium. It's on MW+.
What's the projected score of Northern Illinois vs. San José State?
SP+ projects San José State 29–13. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Northern Illinois vs. San José State series history?
Northern Illinois leads 1–0. Last meeting: Northern Illinois won 18–17 in 1995.
Who are the players to watch in Northern Illinois vs. San José State?
Northern Illinois: Taron Dickens (1,378 passing yards), Telly Johnson Jr. (462 rushing yards) and DeAree Rogers (549 receiving yards). San José State: Luke Weaver (1,822 passing yards), Jabari Bates (627 rushing yards) and Carson Clark (646 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Northern Illinois at San José State?
Northern Illinois' is Taron Dickens (1,378 passing yards this season); San José State's is Luke Weaver (1,822 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Northern Illinois: every stat, rank and the schedule
- San José State: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.