Wyoming vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
71% chance to win
- UNLV's pass defense has the edge on Wyoming's passing game. UNLV is above average (30th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Wyoming is bottom-20 (116th) in EPA per pass.
Wyoming at UNLV
Projected score: Wyoming 18, UNLV 26 (total 44).SP+: UNLV by 7.6, 71% chance to win.PRIME: UNLV by 7.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Allegiant Stadium
- Series
- Wyoming leads 14–13
- Last meeting
- UNLV 31–17 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UNLV by 7.6 | 71% | 44 |
| PRIME | UNLV by 7.0 | 69% | |
| Elo | UNLV | 74% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Wyoming or UNLV?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Wyoming vs. UNLV?
All three ratings favor UNLV, by 7.0 to 7.6 points. UNLV's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 32nd in interceptions per pass, against Wyoming's ball security at 133rd. Wyoming's way back in is its offensive line, 3rd in line yards per carry, against UNLV's run-stopping front at 132nd.
Wyoming with the ball
UNLV with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Wyoming and UNLV?
Wyoming
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
UNLV
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Wyoming and UNLV compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Wyoming and UNLV are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Wyoming's and UNLV's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsUNLV 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Wyoming and UNLV?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UNLV 5.1 points better (82nd to 98th). PRIME also has UNLV ahead, by 4.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has UNLV ahead (68th to 95th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedWyoming 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Wyoming's offense ranks 73rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the UNLV defense it faces ranks 54th in EPA per play allowed. UNLV's offense ranks 87th against Wyoming's 108th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Wyoming's offensive line in the run game: 3rd in adjusted line yards per carry, against UNLV's 132nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUNLV 6–2
Who's more efficient, Wyoming or UNLV?
Wyoming is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (113th). UNLV's run defense ranks 116th, so that's a mismatch. UNLV is better throwing (70th in EPA per pass) than running (96th). Wyoming's pass defense ranks 58th. On third down, UNLV has the edge: its offense ranks 39th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 106th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Wyoming or UNLV?
Wyoming is outscored by 0.5 a game, and UNLV by 1.2. Wyoming's offense ranks 126th in scoring, and the UNLV defense it faces ranks 61st in points allowed. UNLV's offense ranks 90th against Wyoming's 33rd-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Wyoming's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 15th in yards per carry, and UNLV's defense ranks 114th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. UNLV's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 52nd in yards per carry, and Wyoming's defense ranks 113th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseWyoming 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Wyoming's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 53rd in sack rate, and UNLV's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (123rd). That's a mismatch. UNLV's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 32nd in interception rate, and Wyoming's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (133rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontWyoming 10–2
Who wins up front?
Wyoming has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Wyoming ranks 4th and UNLV 85th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUNLV 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
UNLV is −0.2 in turnover margin a game and Wyoming is −0.5. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for UNLV. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentUNLV 7–4
Which team has more talent?
UNLV has the more talented roster (56th in the 247Sports talent composite; Wyoming is 127th). But Wyoming plays further above its talent: +1.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UNLV's −4.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Wyoming is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.9). UNLV is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.1).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Wyoming at UNLV: questions people ask
Wyoming vs. UNLV prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick UNLV, 71% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. UNLV's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 32nd in interceptions per pass, against Wyoming's ball security at 133rd.
Where can I watch Wyoming vs. UNLV, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Wyoming vs. UNLV?
SP+ projects UNLV 26–18. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Wyoming vs. UNLV series history?
Wyoming leads 14–13. Last meeting: UNLV won 31–17 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Wyoming vs. UNLV?
Wyoming: Tyler Hughes (1,133 passing yards), Markell Holman (425 rushing yards) and Jake Wilson (242 receiving yards). UNLV: Jackson Arnold (1,443 passing yards), Jai'Den Thomas (533 rushing yards) and Kayden McGee (330 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Wyoming at UNLV?
Wyoming's is Tyler Hughes (1,133 passing yards this season); UNLV's is Jackson Arnold (1,443 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Wyoming: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UNLV: every stat, rank and the schedule
- New Mexico at Nevada: the numbers' pick
- Northern Illinois at San José State: the numbers' pick
- Air Force at Army: the numbers' pick
- Hawai'i at UTEP: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.