Iowa vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
55% chance to win
- Northwestern should throw it. Northwestern is top-25 (15th) in EPA per pass, and Iowa is bottom-40 (109th) in EPA per pass allowed.
- Northwestern's defense has the edge on Iowa's offense. Northwestern is above average (34th) in EPA per play allowed, and Iowa is bottom-40 (105th) in EPA per play.
Iowa at Northwestern
Projected score: Iowa 20, Northwestern 23 (total 43).SP+: Northwestern by 3.8, 61% chance to win.PRIME: Northwestern by 7.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Ryan Field
- Line
- Northwestern −2.5, total 42.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Iowa leads 55–28–3
- Last meeting
- Iowa 40–14 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Northwestern by 3.8 | 61% | 43 |
| PRIME | Northwestern by 7.8 | 71% | |
| Elo | Iowa | 65% | |
| The line | Northwestern −2.5 | 42.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Iowa or Northwestern?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Iowa vs. Northwestern?
SP+ and PRIME take Northwestern, but Elo has Iowa. Northwestern's best matchup is its passing game, 15th in EPA per pass, against Iowa's pass defense at 109th. Iowa's way back in is its pass protection, 8th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Northwestern's pass rush at 113th.
Iowa with the ball
Northwestern with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Iowa and Northwestern?
Iowa
- Cody Haddad (#0), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyler Brown (#2), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Burke Gautcher (#10), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brody Schaffer (#11), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brevin Doll (#13), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kyler Gerardy (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kamari Moulton (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Lucas Allgeyer (#60), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trent Wilson (#65), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Emmanuel Olagbaju (#88), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Northwestern
- Robert Fitzgerald (DB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Josh Fussell (#13), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brendan Flakes (DL), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Daniel Anderson (#22), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Max Mohring (#37), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jason Reynolds II (#40), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Callen Campbell (#44), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Qayvier Johnson (#50), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ezomo Oratokhai (#62), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jacob Miller (#79), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Chris Petrucci (#81), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Braxton Strong (#97), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Robby Preckel (#41), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Iowa and Northwestern compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Iowa and Northwestern are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Iowa's and Northwestern's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Iowa and Northwestern?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Northwestern 1.3 points better (20th to 23rd). PRIME also has Northwestern ahead, by 5.3. Elo, which only sees results, has Iowa ahead (10th to 25th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedNorthwestern 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Iowa's offense ranks 105th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Northwestern defense it faces ranks 34th in EPA per play allowed. Northwestern's offense ranks 9th against Iowa's 45th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Northwestern's offense against Iowa's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Northwestern's passing game: 15th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Iowa's 109th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Iowa's offense falls from 71st to 105th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPANorthwestern 6–2
Who's more efficient, Iowa or Northwestern?
Iowa is about as good throwing (51st in EPA per pass) as running (64th). Northwestern is about as good throwing (8th in EPA per pass) as running (8th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Iowa or Northwestern?
Iowa outscores FBS opponents by 15.7 a game, and Northwestern by 14.8. Iowa's offense ranks 70th in scoring, and the Northwestern defense it faces ranks 25th in points allowed. Northwestern's offense ranks 34th against Iowa's 4th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseNorthwestern 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Iowa's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 36th in yards per carry, and Northwestern's defense ranks 106th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Northwestern's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 2nd in explosive play rate, and Iowa's defense ranks 27th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseIowa 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Iowa's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 4th in sack rate, and Northwestern's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (100th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontIowa 9–3
Who wins up front?
Iowa has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Iowa ranks 11th and Northwestern 120th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversNorthwestern 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Northwestern is +1.3 in turnover margin a game and Iowa is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Northwestern. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Iowa has the more talented roster (44th in the 247Sports talent composite; Northwestern is 60th). But Northwestern plays further above its talent: +12.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Iowa's +8.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyIowa 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Northwestern's roster is valued at $19.9M, Iowa's at $18.8M. Dollar for dollar, Iowa plays better: +8.6 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +8.6 for Northwestern.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSIowa 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Iowa is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.3). Northwestern is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.2).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Iowa at Northwestern: questions people ask
Iowa vs. Northwestern prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Northwestern, 55% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Iowa. Northwestern's best matchup is its passing game, 15th in EPA per pass, against Iowa's pass defense at 109th.
Where can I watch Iowa vs. Northwestern, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Ryan Field. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Iowa vs. Northwestern?
SP+ projects Northwestern 23–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Iowa at Northwestern?
DraftKings has Northwestern −2.5, total 42.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Iowa vs. Northwestern series history?
Iowa leads 55–28–3. Last meeting: Iowa won 40–14 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Iowa vs. Northwestern?
Iowa: Hank Brown (1,210 passing yards), Kamari Moulton (521 rushing yards) and Tony Diaz (469 receiving yards). Northwestern: Aidan Chiles (1,896 passing yards), Caleb Komolafe (606 rushing yards) and Griffin Wilde (753 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Iowa at Northwestern?
Iowa's is Hank Brown (1,210 passing yards this season); Northwestern's is Aidan Chiles (1,896 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Iowa: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Northwestern: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- UCLA at Minnesota: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.