UCLA vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
77% chance to win
- UCLA should stop the run. UCLA is top-10 (3rd) in EPA per rush allowed, and Minnesota is bottom-20 (128th) in EPA per rush.
- UCLA's defense should hold up. UCLA is top-10 (1st) in EPA per play allowed, and Minnesota is bottom-20 (123rd) in EPA per play.
UCLA is without QB Nico Iamaleava (992 passing yards). UCLA has played 3 games without Iamaleava and won all 3 by 18 (it won by 21 ppg with him). We still believe in the defense.
UCLA at Minnesota
Projected score: UCLA 24, Minnesota 16 (total 40).SP+: UCLA by 8.0, 72% chance to win.PRIME: UCLA by 11.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Huntington Bank Stadium
- Line
- UCLA −6.5, total 42.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Minnesota leads 3–1
- Last meeting
- Minnesota 21–17 in 2024
- UCLA injuries
- Iamaleava (QB), out for season
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UCLA by 8.0 | 72% | 40 |
| PRIME | UCLA by 11.1 | 79% | |
| Elo | UCLA | 81% | |
| The line | UCLA −6.5 | 42.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, UCLA or Minnesota?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide UCLA vs. Minnesota?
All three ratings favor UCLA, by 8.0 to 11.1 points. UCLA's best matchup is its run defense, 3rd in EPA per rush allowed, against Minnesota's run game at 128th. Minnesota's way back in is its pass protection, 27th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UCLA's pass rush at 59th. We left out the edges built on Iamaleava, who's out.
UCLA with the ball
Minnesota with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for UCLA and Minnesota?
UCLA
- Iamaleava (QB), out for season (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24). Knee, hurt vs Oregon. Ty Dieffenbach starts. (as of Oct 24, 2026)
- Rodrick Pleasant (DB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Tao Johnson (DB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Mikey Matthews (#7), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jonah Smith (#24), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Sam Yoon (#64), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jordan Davis (#68), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Minnesota
- Garrison Monroe (#9), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Michael Merdinger (#12), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Pierce Walsh (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ryan Estrada (#20), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Elisha West (#26), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Enoch Atewogbola (#47), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brett Carroll (#56), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ashton Beers (#78), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Hayden Moore (#84), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How UCLA and Minnesota compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UCLA and Minnesota are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How UCLA's and Minnesota's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsUCLA 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate UCLA and Minnesota?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UCLA 10.5 points better (17th to 57th). PRIME also has UCLA ahead, by 13.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has UCLA ahead (21st to 79th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedUCLA 16–0
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
UCLA's offense ranks 41st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Minnesota defense it faces ranks 42nd in EPA per play allowed. Minnesota's offense ranks 123rd against UCLA's 1st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is UCLA's offensive line in the run game: 2nd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Minnesota's 91st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Minnesota's defense falls from 20th to 42nd in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUCLA 7–1
Who's more efficient, UCLA or Minnesota?
UCLA is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (101st). Minnesota's run defense ranks 90th, so that's a mismatch. Minnesota is better throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) than running (133rd). UCLA's pass defense ranks 2nd, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringUCLA 2–0
Who scores more, UCLA or Minnesota?
UCLA outscores FBS opponents by 20.1 a game, and Minnesota by 4.7. UCLA's offense ranks 36th in scoring, and the Minnesota defense it faces ranks 35th in points allowed. Minnesota's offense ranks 89th against UCLA's 5th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseUCLA 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
UCLA's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 16th in SUPLEX, and Minnesota's defense ranks 69th in SUPLEX allowed. Minnesota has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 91st, against a defense ranked 11th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUCLA 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
UCLA's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 4th in yards per carry allowed, and Minnesota's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (127th). That's a mismatch. Minnesota's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 26th in interception rate, and UCLA's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (110th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontUCLA 10–1
Who wins up front?
UCLA has the better number in 10 of 11. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where UCLA ranks 7th and Minnesota 137th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUCLA 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
UCLA is +1.6 in turnover margin a game and Minnesota is +0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for UCLA. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UCLA's takeaways lean on them (1.4 of 3.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentMinnesota 6–5
Which team has more talent?
UCLA has the more talented roster (25th in the 247Sports talent composite; Minnesota is 40th). UCLA also plays further above its talent: +7.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Minnesota's −0.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyUCLA 3–0
Which roster costs more?
UCLA's roster is valued at $26.8M, Minnesota's at $21.1M. UCLA also plays better per dollar: +2.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −2.4 for Minnesota.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSUCLA 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
UCLA is +4.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.5). Minnesota is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.9). UCLA's record is running 1.5 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
UCLA at Minnesota: questions people ask
UCLA vs. Minnesota prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick UCLA, 77% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. UCLA's best matchup is its run defense, 3rd in EPA per rush allowed, against Minnesota's run game at 128th.
Where can I watch UCLA vs. Minnesota, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Huntington Bank Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of UCLA vs. Minnesota?
SP+ projects UCLA 24–16. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for UCLA at Minnesota?
DraftKings has UCLA −6.5, total 42.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the UCLA vs. Minnesota series history?
Minnesota leads 3–1. Last meeting: Minnesota won 21–17 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in UCLA vs. Minnesota?
UCLA: Iamaleava (992 passing yards), Wayne Knight (632 rushing yards) and Semaj Morgan (417 receiving yards). Minnesota: Drake Lindsey (1,666 passing yards), TJ Thomas Jr. (385 rushing yards) and Javon Tracy (470 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in UCLA at Minnesota?
UCLA's is Iamaleava (992 passing yards this season); Minnesota's is Drake Lindsey (1,666 passing yards this season).
Who's out for UCLA at Minnesota?
UCLA: Iamaleava (QB), out for season.
Keep going
- UCLA: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Minnesota: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.