Nebraska vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
69% chance to win
- Nebraska should run it. Nebraska is top-10 (4th) in EPA per rush, and Illinois is bottom-20 (123rd) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Nebraska's offense should move it. Nebraska is top-25 (22nd) in EPA per play, and Illinois is bottom-20 (136th) in EPA per play allowed.
Nebraska at Illinois
Projected score: Nebraska 30, Illinois 24 (total 55).SP+: Nebraska by 6.1, 67% chance to win.PRIME: Nebraska by 7.7.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET
- TV
- Fox
- Where
- Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
- Series
- Nebraska leads 14–7–1
- Last meeting
- Illinois 31–24 in 2024
- Illinois injuries
- Katin Houser (QB), questionable
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Nebraska by 6.1 | 67% | 55 |
| PRIME | Nebraska by 7.7 | 71% | |
| Elo | Nebraska | 69% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Nebraska or Illinois?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Nebraska vs. Illinois?
All three ratings favor Nebraska, by 6.1 to 7.7 points. Nebraska's best matchup is its run game, 4th in EPA per rush, against Illinois' run defense at 123rd. Illinois' way back in is its offensive line, 15th in line yards per carry, against Nebraska's run-stopping front at 65th.
Nebraska with the ball
Illinois with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Nebraska and Illinois?
Nebraska
- Jamir Conn (S), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Anthony Jones Jr. (#5), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Larry Miles (#17), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kahmir Prescott (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Vincent Genatone (#30), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jase Reynolds (#52), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jacob Bower (#54), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Gunnar Gottula (#77), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Gabe Moore (#95), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Vincent Shavers Jr. (LB), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Illinois
- Katin Houser (QB), questionable (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31). Broken throwing hand, hurt Oct. 10 at Michigan State; procedure Oct. 14. Bret Bielema said four to six weeks (On3, 247Sports), so a return for Nov. 13 at UCLA is the optimistic case. Freshman Michael Clayton II starts. The Big Ten report lists him questionable (update 2, Oct. 31). (as of Oct 31, 2026)
- Jayshon Platt (#1), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ca'Lil Valentine (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tywan Cox (#32), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Grant Beerman (#33), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Carter Smith (#48), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kai Pritchard (#53), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Demetrius John (#54), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- TJ McMillen (#55), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- BJ Thurman (#87), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Nebraska and Illinois compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Nebraska and Illinois are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Nebraska's and Illinois' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsNebraska 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Nebraska and Illinois?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Nebraska 8.6 points better (15th to 47th). PRIME also has Nebraska ahead, by 10.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Nebraska ahead (20th to 54th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedNebraska 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Nebraska's offense ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Illinois defense it faces ranks 136th in EPA per play allowed. Illinois' offense ranks 29th against Nebraska's 29th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Nebraska's offense against Illinois' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Nebraska's run game: 4th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Illinois' 123rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPANebraska 7–1
Who's more efficient, Nebraska or Illinois?
Nebraska is better running (8th in EPA per rush) than throwing (58th). Illinois' run defense ranks 109th, so that's a mismatch. Illinois is about as good throwing (43rd in EPA per pass) as running (47th). On third down, Nebraska has the edge: its offense ranks 4th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 58th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringNebraska 2–0
Who scores more, Nebraska or Illinois?
Nebraska outscores FBS opponents by 16.8 a game, and Illinois by 4.8. Nebraska's offense ranks 42nd in scoring, and the Illinois defense it faces ranks 65th in points allowed. Illinois' offense ranks 65th against Nebraska's 14th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseNebraska 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Nebraska's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 24th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Illinois' defense ranks 111th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Illinois has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 26th, against a defense ranked 29th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseNebraska 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Nebraska's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 1st in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Illinois' offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (71st). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontNebraska 7–5
Who wins up front?
Nebraska has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Nebraska ranks 12th and Illinois 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversNebraska 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Nebraska is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and Illinois is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Nebraska. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentNebraska 9–2
Which team has more talent?
Nebraska has the more talented roster (22nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Illinois is 51st). Nebraska also plays further above its talent: +7.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Illinois' +4.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyNebraska 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Nebraska's roster is valued at $23.3M, Illinois' at $19.7M. Nebraska also plays better per dollar: +6.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +1.9 for Illinois.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSNebraska 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Nebraska is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.1). Illinois is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.7). Nebraska's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Nebraska at Illinois: questions people ask
Nebraska vs. Illinois prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Nebraska, 69% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Nebraska's best matchup is its run game, 4th in EPA per rush, against Illinois' run defense at 123rd.
Where can I watch Nebraska vs. Illinois, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL). It's on Fox.
What's the projected score of Nebraska vs. Illinois?
SP+ projects Nebraska 30–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Nebraska vs. Illinois series history?
Nebraska leads 14–7–1. Last meeting: Illinois won 31–24 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Nebraska vs. Illinois?
Nebraska: Anthony Colandrea (1,627 passing yards), Jamal Rule (385 rushing yards) and Kwazi Gilmer (492 receiving yards). Illinois: Katin Houser (1,693 passing yards), Aidan Laughery (558 rushing yards) and Collin Dixon (782 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Nebraska at Illinois?
Nebraska's is Anthony Colandrea (1,627 passing yards this season); Illinois' is Katin Houser (1,693 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Nebraska at Illinois?
Illinois: Katin Houser (QB), questionable.
Keep going
- Nebraska: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- UCLA at Minnesota: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.