Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
84% chance to win
- Michigan's defense should hold up. Michigan is top-10 (4th) in yards per play allowed, and Michigan State is bottom-20 (132nd) in yards per play.
- Michigan shouldn't give up big plays. Michigan is top-10 (8th) in explosive plays allowed, and Michigan State is bottom-20 (134th) in explosive play rate.
Michigan State at Michigan
Projected score: Michigan State 9, Michigan 26 (total 35).SP+: Michigan by 17.0, 89% chance to win.PRIME: Michigan by 9.1.
- Rivalry
- Paul Bunyan Trophy
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Michigan Stadium
- Line
- Michigan −14, total 39.5
- Line movement
- Opened Michigan −16.5; moved 2.5 points toward Michigan State. Total opened 50.5, down 11.
- Series
- Michigan leads 75–38–5
- Last meeting
- Michigan 31–20 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Michigan by 17.0 | 89% | 35 |
| PRIME | Michigan by 9.1 | 74% | |
| Elo | Michigan | 88% | |
| The line | Michigan −14, opened −16.5 | 39.5, opened 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Michigan State or Michigan?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Michigan State vs. Michigan?
All three ratings favor Michigan, by 9.1 to 17.0 points, and it isn't close. Michigan's best matchup is its defense, 4th in yards per play allowed, against Michigan State's offense at 132nd. Michigan State's way back in is its run defense, 60th in yards per carry allowed, against Michigan's run game at 120th.
Michigan State with the ball
Michigan with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Michigan State and Michigan?
Michigan State
- Cam Edwards (#0), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Cam Fancher (#2), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Tre Bell (CB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jaziun Patterson (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Charles Brantley (CB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jordan Hall (#5), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Alessio Milivojevic (QB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Charles Taplin (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Keshawn Williams (#20), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Tyran Chappell (#22), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jay Coyne (#44), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Tristan Comer (#79), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Joe Caudill (#87), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Camryn Edwards (RB), hasn't played since Week 4 (64 carries in 4 games before that)
Michigan
- Kendrick Bell (#0), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jo'Ziah Edmond (#16), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Braydon Alford (#22), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Micah Ka'apana (#25), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Julius Holly (#37), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ace Hamilton (#52), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Andrew Sprague (#54), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Dom Nichols (#8), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Enow Etta (DT), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- John Henry Daley (DE), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Michigan State and Michigan compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Michigan State and Michigan are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Michigan State's and Michigan's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsMichigan 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Michigan State and Michigan?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Michigan 14.5 points better (27th to 88th). PRIME also has Michigan ahead, by 6.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Michigan ahead (28th to 80th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedMichigan 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Michigan State's offense ranks 110th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Michigan defense it faces ranks 13th in EPA per play allowed. Michigan's offense ranks 86th against Michigan State's 72nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. Adjust for opponents and Michigan State's defense climbs from 111th to 72nd in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMichigan 8–0
Who's more efficient, Michigan State or Michigan?
Michigan State is about as good throwing (119th in EPA per pass) as running (126th). Michigan is better running (89th in EPA per rush) than throwing (106th). Michigan State's run defense ranks 71st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringMichigan 2–0
Who scores more, Michigan State or Michigan?
Michigan State is outscored by 5.9 a game, and Michigan by 4.8. Michigan State's offense ranks 123rd in scoring, and the Michigan defense it faces ranks 18th in points allowed. Michigan's offense ranks 115th against Michigan State's 85th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseMichigan 9–2
Which offense has the edge?
Michigan State has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 99th, against a defense ranked 17th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Michigan's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 37th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Michigan State's defense ranks 120th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseMichigan 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Michigan State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 60th in yards per carry allowed, and Michigan's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (120th). That's a mismatch. Michigan's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 8th in explosive plays allowed, and Michigan State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (134th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontMichigan 11–1
Who wins up front?
Michigan has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Michigan ranks 33rd and Michigan State 103rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversMichigan State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Michigan State is −0.8 a game and Michigan −0.6.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentMichigan 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Michigan has the more talented roster (11th in the 247Sports talent composite; Michigan State is 61st). Michigan also plays further above its talent: −2.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Michigan State's −4.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyMichigan 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Michigan's roster is valued at $33.3M, Michigan State's at $24.6M. Michigan also plays better per dollar: −4.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −12.7 for Michigan State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSMichigan 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Michigan State is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.4). Michigan is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.8).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Michigan State at Michigan: questions people ask
Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Michigan, 84% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Michigan's best matchup is its defense, 4th in yards per play allowed, against Michigan State's offense at 132nd.
Where can I watch Michigan State vs. Michigan, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Michigan Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Michigan State vs. Michigan?
SP+ projects Michigan 26–9. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Michigan State at Michigan?
DraftKings has Michigan −14, total 39.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Michigan State vs. Michigan series history?
Michigan leads 75–38–5. Last meeting: Michigan won 31–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Michigan State vs. Michigan?
Michigan State: Alessio Milivojevic (1,269 passing yards), Jaziun Patterson (327 rushing yards) and Chrishon Mccray (289 receiving yards). Michigan: Bryce Underwood (936 passing yards), Jordan Marshall (316 rushing yards) and JJ Buchanan (602 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Michigan State at Michigan?
Michigan State's is Alessio Milivojevic (1,269 passing yards this season); Michigan's is Bryce Underwood (936 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Michigan State at Michigan?
Michigan State: Camryn Edwards (RB) hasn't played since Week 4.
Keep going
- Michigan State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Michigan: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- UCLA at Minnesota: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.