Penn State vs. Washington Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayWashington52% chance to win
- Washington should stop the run. Washington is top-25 (24th) in yards per carry allowed, and Penn State is bottom-20 (122nd) in yards per carry.
- Washington shouldn't give up big plays. Washington is top-25 (20th) in explosive plays allowed, and Penn State is bottom-20 (116th) in explosive play rate.
Penn State at Washington
Projected score: Penn State 22, Washington 25 (total 47).SP+: Washington by 2.7, 58% chance to win.PRIME: Washington by 1.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Husky Stadium
- Series
- Penn State leads 4–0
- Last meeting
- Penn State 35–6 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Washington by 2.7 | 58% | 47 |
| PRIME | Washington by 1.5 | 54% | |
| Elo | Penn State | 57% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Penn State or Washington?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Penn State vs. Washington?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Washington ahead by a hair. Washington's best matchup is its run defense, 24th in yards per carry allowed, against Penn State's run game at 122nd. Penn State's way back in is its 3rd down defense, 6th in 3rd downs allowed, against Washington's 3rd down offense at 88th.
Penn State with the ball
Washington with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Penn State and Washington?
Penn State
- Chase Sowell (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Koby Howard (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Joshua Johnson (#15), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Max Granville (#18), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Alex Tatsch (#25), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Omarion Davis (#27), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Christian Askew (#30), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyler Armstead (#35), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Mason Robinson (#42), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Alijah Carnell (#56), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Will Tompkins (#66), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cooper Alexander (#80), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Liam Andrews (#90), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cristiano Rosa (#95), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Yvan Kemajou (DE), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brian Kortovich (#83), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Armstrong Nnodim (#91), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Washington
- Jordan Washington (#4), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Christian Moss (#5), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ramzak Fruean (#11), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Quaid Carr (#21), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ansu Sanoe (#30), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Landen Hatchett (#66), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Justin Hylkema (#70), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jake Flores (#78), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- CJ Christian, last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Xe'ree Alexander (#10), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Demond Williams Jr. (QB), hasn't played since Week 6 (174 pass attempts in 6 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Penn State and Washington compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Penn State and Washington are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Penn State's and Washington's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsPenn State 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Penn State and Washington?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Washington 0.2 points better (35th to 36th). PRIME has Penn State by 1.0 instead. The two ratings split on Penn State's offense: 53rd in SP+, 77th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Penn State ahead (16th to 33rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedWashington 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Penn State's offense ranks 56th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Washington defense it faces ranks 51st in EPA per play allowed. Washington's offense ranks 76th against Penn State's 38th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Washington's backs in the open field: 53rd in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Penn State's 116th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Penn State's defense climbs from 75th to 38th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAWashington 5–3
Who's more efficient, Penn State or Washington?
Penn State is better throwing (33rd in EPA per pass) than running (124th). Washington's pass defense ranks 62nd, so that's an edge. Washington is better throwing (37th in EPA per pass) than running (114th). Penn State's pass defense ranks 12th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringPenn State 2–0
Who scores more, Penn State or Washington?
Penn State outscores FBS opponents by 10.4 a game, and Washington by 5.4. Penn State's offense ranks 65th in scoring, and the Washington defense it faces ranks 42nd in points allowed. Washington's offense ranks 83rd against Penn State's 24th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseWashington 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Penn State has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 82nd, against a defense ranked 36th in success rate allowed. Washington's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 24th in explosive play rate, and Penn State's defense ranks 99th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseWashington 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Penn State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 6th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Washington's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (88th). That's a mismatch. Washington's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed, and Penn State's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (122nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontWashington 8–4
Who wins up front?
Washington has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Penn State ranks 2nd and Washington 100th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversPenn State 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Penn State is +0.6 a game and Washington +0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentWashington 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Washington has the more talented roster (24th in the 247Sports talent composite; Penn State is 26th). But Penn State plays further above its talent: +2.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Washington's +2.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyWashington 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Penn State's roster is valued at $27.8M, Washington's at $22.4M. Dollar for dollar, Washington plays better: +1.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −3.1 for Penn State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSWashington 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Penn State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.3). Washington is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+0.8). Penn State's record is 1.3 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Penn State at Washington: questions people ask
Penn State vs. Washington prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Washington, 52% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Penn State. Washington's best matchup is its run defense, 24th in yards per carry allowed, against Penn State's run game at 122nd.
Where can I watch Penn State vs. Washington, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Husky Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Penn State vs. Washington?
SP+ projects Washington 25–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Penn State vs. Washington series history?
Penn State leads 4–0. Last meeting: Penn State won 35–6 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Penn State vs. Washington?
Penn State: Rocco Becht (1,839 passing yards), Carson Hansen (371 rushing yards) and Chase Sowell (513 receiving yards). Washington: Demond Williams Jr. (1,398 passing yards), Brian Bonner Jr. (295 rushing yards) and Chris Lawson (493 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Penn State at Washington?
Penn State's is Rocco Becht (1,839 passing yards this season); Washington's is Demond Williams Jr. (1,398 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Penn State at Washington?
Washington: Demond Williams Jr. (QB) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Penn State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Washington: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- UCLA at Minnesota: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.