Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayTennessee74% chance to win
- Tennessee's defense should get off the field on 3rd down. Tennessee is top-10 (10th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Kentucky is bottom-20 (131st) in 3rd down conversion.
- Tennessee's offense should move it. Tennessee is top-25 (25th) in success rate, and Kentucky is bottom-20 (126th) in success rate allowed.
Kentucky at Tennessee
Projected score: Kentucky 23, Tennessee 33 (total 55).SP+: Tennessee by 9.8, 76% chance to win.PRIME: Tennessee by 5.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 6:15 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Neyland Stadium
- Line
- Tennessee −5.5, total 50.5
- Line movement
- Opened Tennessee −6; moved 0.5 points toward Kentucky.
- Series
- Tennessee leads 84–25–9
- Last meeting
- Tennessee 56–34 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Tennessee by 9.8 | 76% | 55 |
| PRIME | Tennessee by 5.3 | 65% | |
| Elo | Tennessee | 81% | |
| The line | Tennessee −5.5, opened −6 | 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Kentucky or Tennessee?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Kentucky vs. Tennessee?
All three ratings favor Tennessee, by 5.3 to 9.8 points. Tennessee's best matchup is its 3rd down defense, 10th in 3rd downs allowed, against Kentucky's 3rd down offense at 131st. Kentucky's way back in is its pass defense, 26th in EPA per pass allowed, against Tennessee's passing game at 114th.
Kentucky with the ball
Tennessee with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Kentucky and Tennessee?
Kentucky
- Sam Greene (LB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Nic Anderson (WR), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Antwan Smith (LB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Lincoln Watkins (#11), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jaden Smith (#24), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Grant Grayton (#30), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Cole Marszalek (#40), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Tyler Thomas (#97), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Tennessee
- Ethan Davis (#0), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Joakim Dodson (#9), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jaedon Harmon (#12), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Edrees Farooq (#15), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Dylan Lewis (#24), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Wendell Moe Jr. (#75), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Kentucky and Tennessee compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kentucky and Tennessee are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Kentucky's and Tennessee's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsTennessee 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kentucky and Tennessee?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Tennessee 7.3 points better (11th to 31st). PRIME also has Tennessee ahead, by 2.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Tennessee ahead (15th to 41st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedKentucky 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Kentucky's offense ranks 28th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Tennessee defense it faces ranks 8th in EPA per play allowed. Tennessee's offense ranks 66th against Kentucky's 26th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Kentucky's offensive line in the run game: 17th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Tennessee's 61st-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPATennessee 6–2
Who's more efficient, Kentucky or Tennessee?
Kentucky is better running (26th in EPA per rush) than throwing (75th). Tennessee's run defense ranks 38th. Tennessee is better running (19th in EPA per rush) than throwing (106th). Kentucky's run defense ranks 54th, so that's an edge. On third down, Tennessee has the edge: its offense ranks 91st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 118th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Kentucky or Tennessee?
Kentucky outscores FBS opponents by 8.1 a game, and Tennessee by 16.0. Kentucky's offense ranks 40th in scoring, and the Tennessee defense it faces ranks 17th in points allowed. Tennessee's offense ranks 46th against Kentucky's 70th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseTennessee 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Kentucky's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 41st in yards per carry, and Tennessee's defense ranks 102nd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Tennessee's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 25th in success rate, and Kentucky's defense ranks 126th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseTennessee 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Kentucky's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 39th in sack rate, and Tennessee's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (126th). That's a mismatch. Tennessee's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 10th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Kentucky's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (131st). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontTennessee 8–4
Who wins up front?
Tennessee has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Kentucky ranks 34th and Tennessee 104th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversKentucky 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Kentucky is +1.6 in turnover margin a game and Tennessee is +0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Kentucky. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Tennessee's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.8 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTennessee 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Tennessee has the more talented roster (13th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kentucky is 23rd). Tennessee also plays further above its talent: +3.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Kentucky's +2.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyTennessee 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Tennessee's roster is valued at $33.2M, Kentucky's at $24.6M. Tennessee also plays better per dollar: +1.7 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +0.9 for Kentucky.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSTennessee 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Kentucky is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+2.4). Tennessee is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.5). Kentucky's record is running 2.4 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Kentucky at Tennessee: questions people ask
Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Tennessee, 74% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Tennessee's best matchup is its 3rd down defense, 10th in 3rd downs allowed, against Kentucky's 3rd down offense at 131st.
Where can I watch Kentucky vs. Tennessee, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 6:15 PM ET at Neyland Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Kentucky vs. Tennessee?
SP+ projects Tennessee 33–23. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Kentucky at Tennessee?
DraftKings has Tennessee −5.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Kentucky vs. Tennessee series history?
Tennessee leads 84–25–9. Last meeting: Tennessee won 56–34 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Kentucky vs. Tennessee?
Kentucky: Kenny Minchey (1,759 passing yards), CJ Baxter Jr. (468 rushing yards) and Kenny Darby (511 receiving yards). Tennessee: George MacIntyre (730 passing yards), DeSean Bishop (914 rushing yards) and Mike Matthews (532 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Kentucky at Tennessee?
Kentucky's is Kenny Minchey (1,759 passing yards this season); Tennessee's is George MacIntyre (730 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Kentucky: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Tennessee: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.