Louisiana Tech vs. Troy Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
66% chance to win
- Louisiana Tech's pass defense should win its matchup. Louisiana Tech is top-10 (10th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Troy is bottom-20 (118th) in EPA per pass.
- Louisiana Tech should get home. Louisiana Tech is top-25 (13th) in sack rate, and Troy is bottom-40 (114th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
Louisiana Tech at Troy
Projected score: Louisiana Tech 26, Troy 21 (total 47).SP+: Louisiana Tech by 4.8, 63% chance to win.PRIME: Louisiana Tech by 7.7.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisiana Tech by 4.8 | 63% | 47 |
| PRIME | Louisiana Tech by 7.7 | 71% | |
| Elo | Louisiana Tech | 63% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Louisiana Tech or Troy?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Louisiana Tech vs. Troy?
All three ratings favor Louisiana Tech, by 4.8 to 7.7 points. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is its pass defense, 10th in EPA per pass allowed, against Troy's passing game at 118th. Troy's way back in is its defense, 39th in success rate allowed, against Louisiana Tech's offense at 91st.
Louisiana Tech with the ball
Troy with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Louisiana Tech and Troy?
Louisiana Tech
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Troy
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Louisiana Tech and Troy compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Louisiana Tech and Troy are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Louisiana Tech's and Troy's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsLouisiana Tech 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Louisiana Tech and Troy?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisiana Tech 7.3 points better (84th to 108th). PRIME also has Louisiana Tech ahead, by 10.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisiana Tech ahead (71st to 101st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedLouisiana Tech 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 71st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Troy defense it faces ranks 106th in EPA per play allowed. Troy's offense ranks 102nd against Louisiana Tech's 21st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against Troy's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Troy's big plays: 37th in adjusted explosiveness, against Louisiana Tech's 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Troy's defense falls from 36th to 106th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPALouisiana Tech 5–2
Who's more efficient, Louisiana Tech or Troy?
Louisiana Tech is better throwing (31st in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Troy's pass defense ranks 37th. Troy is better running (67th in EPA per rush) than throwing (128th). Louisiana Tech's run defense ranks 68th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringLouisiana Tech 2–0
Who scores more, Louisiana Tech or Troy?
Louisiana Tech outscores FBS opponents by 11.7 a game, and Troy is outscored by 1.4. Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 41st in scoring, and the Troy defense it faces ranks 67th in points allowed. Troy's offense ranks 102nd against Louisiana Tech's 39th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against Troy's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseLouisiana Tech 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Louisiana Tech has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 57th, against a defense ranked 53rd in SUPLEX allowed. Troy has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 56th, against a defense ranked 44th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseLouisiana Tech 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Louisiana Tech's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 13th in sack rate, and Troy's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (114th). That's a mismatch. Troy's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 39th in success rate allowed, and Louisiana Tech's offense is middle of the pack in success rate (91st).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Louisiana Tech ranks 18th and Troy 128th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversLouisiana Tech 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Louisiana Tech is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and Troy is +0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Louisiana Tech. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Troy's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTroy 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Troy has the more talented roster (96th in the 247Sports talent composite; Louisiana Tech is 124th). But Louisiana Tech plays further above its talent: +4.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Troy's −5.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSLouisiana Tech 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Louisiana Tech is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.4). Troy is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Louisiana Tech's record is running 1.4 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Louisiana Tech at Troy: questions people ask
Louisiana Tech vs. Troy prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Louisiana Tech, 66% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is its pass defense, 10th in EPA per pass allowed, against Troy's passing game at 118th.
Where can I watch Louisiana Tech vs. Troy, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL). It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Louisiana Tech vs. Troy?
SP+ projects Louisiana Tech 26–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Louisiana Tech vs. Troy series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in Louisiana Tech vs. Troy?
Louisiana Tech: Blake Baker (1,324 passing yards), Andrew Burnette (364 rushing yards) and Jalen Mickens (618 receiving yards). Troy: Will Crowder (1,174 passing yards), Gavin Griffin (436 rushing yards) and TK Keyes (288 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Louisiana Tech at Troy?
Louisiana Tech's is Blake Baker (1,324 passing yards this season); Troy's is Will Crowder (1,174 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Louisiana Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Troy: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at Southern Miss: the numbers' pick
- Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia State at App State: the numbers' pick
- UL Monroe at Arkansas State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.