Maryland vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
68% chance to win
- Purdue's offense has the edge on Maryland's defense. Purdue is above average (30th) in EPA per play, and Maryland is middle of the pack (89th) in EPA per play allowed.
- Purdue's passing game has the edge on Maryland's pass defense. Purdue is above average (26th) in EPA per pass, and Maryland is middle of the pack (80th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Maryland at Purdue
Projected score: Maryland 30, Purdue 35 (total 64).SP+: Purdue by 4.8, 63% chance to win.PRIME: Purdue by 6.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET
- TV
- BTN
- Where
- Ross-Ade Stadium
- Series
- Tied 2–2
- Last meeting
- Purdue 31–29 in 2022
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Purdue by 4.8 | 63% | 64 |
| PRIME | Purdue by 6.4 | 68% | |
| Elo | Purdue | 73% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Maryland or Purdue?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Maryland vs. Purdue?
All three ratings favor Purdue, by 4.8 to 6.4 points. Purdue's best matchup is its offense, 30th in EPA per play, against Maryland's defense at 89th. Maryland's way back in is its pass protection, 9th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Purdue's pass rush at 124th.
Maryland with the ball
Purdue with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Maryland and Purdue?
Maryland
- Zahir Mathis (#9), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Josiah Teasley (#18), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- DJ Samuels (#20), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Sean Williams (#21), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jordan Williams (#23), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Harry Dalton III (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trevor Szymanski (#50), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jayvon Parker (#97), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Purdue
- Jaden Mangham (#2), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- De'Nylon Morrissette (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kylan Fox (#16), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Raderrion Daniels (#24), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Maryland and Purdue compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Maryland and Purdue are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Maryland's and Purdue's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsPurdue 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Maryland and Purdue?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Purdue 2.3 points better (69th to 81st). PRIME also has Purdue ahead, by 3.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Purdue ahead (85th to 110th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Maryland's offense ranks 116th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Purdue defense it faces ranks 120th in EPA per play allowed. Purdue's offense ranks 30th against Maryland's 89th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Purdue's offense against Maryland's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Maryland's big plays: 23rd in adjusted explosiveness, against Purdue's 94th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMaryland 5–3
Who's more efficient, Maryland or Purdue?
Maryland is better running (74th in EPA per rush) than throwing (119th). Purdue's run defense ranks 127th, so that's an edge. Purdue is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (80th). Maryland's pass defense ranks 83rd, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Maryland or Purdue?
Maryland is outscored by 4.7 a game, and Purdue is outscored by 2.6. Maryland's offense ranks 77th in scoring, and the Purdue defense it faces ranks 125th in points allowed. Purdue's offense ranks 60th against Maryland's 120th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffensePurdue 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Maryland's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 60th in explosive play rate, and Purdue's defense ranks 137th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Purdue's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 32nd in SUPLEX, and Maryland's defense ranks 88th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseMaryland 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Maryland's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 77th in yards per carry allowed, and Purdue's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (123rd).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontMaryland 7–5
Who wins up front?
Maryland has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Maryland ranks 51st and Purdue 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversPurdue 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Maryland is +0.4 a game and Purdue +0.6.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentMaryland 9–2
Which team has more talent?
Maryland has the more talented roster (46th in the 247Sports talent composite; Purdue is 55th). But Purdue plays further above its talent: −2.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Maryland's −5.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyPurdue 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Maryland's roster is valued at $23.0M, Purdue's at $17.8M. Dollar for dollar, Purdue plays better: −2.4 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −10.3 for Maryland.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSPurdue 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Maryland is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−0.8). Purdue is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.3). Maryland's record is 0.8 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Maryland at Purdue: questions people ask
Maryland vs. Purdue prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Purdue, 68% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Purdue's best matchup is its offense, 30th in EPA per play, against Maryland's defense at 89th.
Where can I watch Maryland vs. Purdue, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET at Ross-Ade Stadium. It's on BTN.
What's the projected score of Maryland vs. Purdue?
SP+ projects Purdue 35–30. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Maryland vs. Purdue series history?
It's tied 2–2. Last meeting: Purdue won 31–29 in 2022.
Who are the players to watch in Maryland vs. Purdue?
Maryland: Malik Washington (1,866 passing yards), DeJuan Williams (333 rushing yards) and Chris Durr Jr. (660 receiving yards). Purdue: Ryan Browne (1,976 passing yards), Fame Ijeboi (564 rushing yards) and Asaad Waseem (628 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Maryland at Purdue?
Maryland's is Malik Washington (1,866 passing yards this season); Purdue's is Ryan Browne (1,976 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Maryland: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Purdue: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.