Oklahoma vs. Florida Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayFlorida51% chance to win
- Florida's run defense has the edge on Oklahoma's run game. Florida is above average (33rd) in EPA per rush allowed, and Oklahoma is bottom-20 (131st) in EPA per rush.
- Florida should get home. Florida is top-25 (16th) in sack rate, and Oklahoma is bottom-40 (103rd) in sacks allowed per dropback.
Oklahoma at Florida
Projected score: Oklahoma 21, Florida 24 (total 44).SP+: Florida by 2.8, 58% chance to win.PRIME: Florida by 1.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:45 PM ET
- TV
- SEC Network
- Where
- Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
- Line
- Florida −4, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Tied 1–1
- Last meeting
- Oklahoma 55–20 in 2020
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Florida by 2.8 | 58% | 44 |
| PRIME | Florida by 1.1 | 53% | |
| Elo | Oklahoma | 57% | |
| The line | Florida −4 | 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Oklahoma or Florida?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Oklahoma vs. Florida?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Florida ahead by a hair. Florida's best matchup is its run defense, 33rd in EPA per rush allowed, against Oklahoma's run game at 131st. Oklahoma's way back in is its early-down defense, 14th in SUPLEX allowed, against Florida's early-down offense at 93rd.
Oklahoma with the ball
Florida with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Oklahoma and Florida?
Oklahoma
- Taylor Heim (#7), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Dakoda Fields (#9), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trell Harris (#11), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Elijah Thomas (#14), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cole Sullivan (#18), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trynae Washington (#22), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Eli Bowen (#23), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jacobe Johnson (DB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Eddy Pierre-Louis (#55), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jake Maikkula (#69), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ryan Fodje (#70), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Fred Hinton (#72), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Peyton Bowen (DB), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Florida
- Vernell Brown III (WR), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Duke Clark (RB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jaden Robinson (LB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Bailey Stockton (WR), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Oklahoma and Florida compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Oklahoma and Florida are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Oklahoma's and Florida's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Oklahoma and Florida?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Florida 0.3 points better (31st to 33rd). PRIME has Oklahoma by 1.4 instead. The two ratings split on Florida's defense: 50th in SP+, 78th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Oklahoma ahead (30th to 44th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedFlorida 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Oklahoma's offense ranks 101st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Florida defense it faces ranks 66th in EPA per play allowed. Florida's offense ranks 17th against Oklahoma's 2nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Oklahoma's passing game: 33rd in adjusted EPA per pass, against Florida's 104th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Oklahoma's offense climbs from 125th to 101st in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Oklahoma or Florida?
Oklahoma is better throwing (75th in EPA per pass) than running (137th). Florida's pass defense ranks 103rd, so that's an edge. Florida is better throwing (20th in EPA per pass) than running (43rd). Oklahoma's pass defense ranks 8th, so that's strength on strength.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Oklahoma or Florida?
Oklahoma outscores FBS opponents by 1.2 a game, and Florida by 7.5. Oklahoma's offense ranks 108th in scoring, and the Florida defense it faces ranks 103rd in points allowed. Florida's offense ranks 23rd against Oklahoma's 38th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseFlorida 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Oklahoma's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 93rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Florida's defense ranks 126th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Florida has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 67th, against a defense ranked 49th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseOklahoma 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Oklahoma's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 14th in SUPLEX allowed, and Florida's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (93rd). That's a mismatch. Florida's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 16th in sack rate, and Oklahoma's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (103rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontFlorida 8–4
Who wins up front?
Florida has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Florida ranks 13th and Oklahoma 117th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversFlorida 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Florida is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Oklahoma is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Florida. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Florida's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.3 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentFlorida 6–5
Which team has more talent?
Florida has the more talented roster (10th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oklahoma is 17th). But Oklahoma plays further above its talent: −1.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida's −3.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyFlorida 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Oklahoma's roster is valued at $32.6M, Florida's at $27.3M. Dollar for dollar, Florida plays better: −1.4 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.5 for Oklahoma.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSFlorida 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Oklahoma is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.6). Florida is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.5). Florida's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Oklahoma at Florida: questions people ask
Oklahoma vs. Florida prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Florida, 51% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Oklahoma. Florida's best matchup is its run defense, 33rd in EPA per rush allowed, against Oklahoma's run game at 131st.
Where can I watch Oklahoma vs. Florida, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:45 PM ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. It's on SEC Network.
What's the projected score of Oklahoma vs. Florida?
SP+ projects Florida 24–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Oklahoma at Florida?
DraftKings has Florida −4, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Oklahoma vs. Florida series history?
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Oklahoma won 55–20 in 2020.
Who are the players to watch in Oklahoma vs. Florida?
Oklahoma: John Mateer (1,603 passing yards), Lloyd Avant (321 rushing yards) and Isaiah Sategna (578 receiving yards). Florida: Aaron Philo (1,442 passing yards), Jadan Baugh (778 rushing yards) and Dallas Wilson (417 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Oklahoma at Florida?
Oklahoma's is John Mateer (1,603 passing yards this season); Florida's is Aaron Philo (1,442 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Oklahoma: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.