Oregon vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
88% chance to win
- Ohio State should stop the run. Ohio State is top-10 (8th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Oregon is bottom-20 (125th) in EPA per rush.
- Ohio State's defense should hold up. Ohio State is top-10 (7th) in EPA per play allowed, and Oregon is bottom-40 (98th) in EPA per play.
Ohio State is without QB Julian Sayin (2,007 passing yards). Ohio State has played one game without Sayin and lost it by 12 (it won by 26 ppg with him). One game isn't enough to know yet.
That knocks the pick down a tier, from Lock to Lean.
Oregon at Ohio State
Projected score: Oregon 17, Ohio State 31 (total 48).SP+: Ohio State by 14.1, 84% chance to win.PRIME: Ohio State by 20.9.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBS
- Where
- Ohio Stadium
- Line
- Ohio State −14, total 45.5
- Line movement
- Opened Ohio State −6; moved 8 points toward Ohio State. Total opened 52.5, down 7.
- Series
- Ohio State leads 10–2
- Last meeting
- Ohio State 41–21 in 2024
- Oregon injuries
- Dante Moore (QB), out for season
- Ohio State injuries
- Sayin (QB), out indefinitely
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Ohio State by 14.1 | 84% | 48 |
| PRIME | Ohio State by 20.9 | 93% | |
| Elo | Ohio State | 87% | |
| The line | Ohio State −14, opened −6 | 45.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Oregon or Ohio State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Oregon vs. Ohio State?
All three ratings favor Ohio State, by 14.1 to 20.9 points, and it isn't close. Ohio State's best matchup is its run defense, 8th in EPA per rush allowed, against Oregon's run game at 125th. Oregon's way back in is its pass protection, 26th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Ohio State's pass rush at 122nd. We left out the edges built on Sayin, who's out.
Oregon with the ball
Ohio State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Oregon and Ohio State?
Oregon
- Dante Moore (QB), out for season (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31). Concussion Sept. 26 vs USC. Dan Lanning said Oct. 27 that Moore isn't expected back this season. Dylan Raiola starts, with Brock Thomas behind him. The Big Ten report lists him out for this week; we keep "out for season" because of Lanning's comment. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Jeremiah McClellan (#3), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Messiah Hampton (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Aaron Flowers (#21), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brayden Platt (#23), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Matthew Johnson (#55), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trent Ferguson (#56), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Dave Iuli (#74), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Iverson Hooks (#2), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Ohio State
- Sayin (QB), out indefinitely (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31). Throwing shoulder, hurt Oct. 17 at Indiana. Ryan Day says Ohio State is planning to be without him for the rest of the season. Day hadn't named a starter for USC as of Oct. 26: true freshman Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair. The Big Ten report lists him out for the USC game; we keep "out indefinitely" because of Day's rest-of-season comment. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Leroy Roker III (#10), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brock Boyd (#11), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brenten "Inky" Jones (#21), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ja’Kobi Jackson (#24), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jay Timmons (CB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Deshawn Stewart (#29), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Amari Valerio-Hudson (#30), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Eli Lee (#33), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jaxon Powell (#60), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Maxence LeBlanc (#88), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brandon Inniss (WR), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ja'Kobi Jackson (RB), hasn't played since Week 6 (59 carries in 6 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Oregon and Ohio State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Oregon and Ohio State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Oregon's and Ohio State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsOhio State 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Oregon and Ohio State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Ohio State 11.6 points better (1st to 12th). PRIME also has Ohio State ahead, by 18.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Ohio State ahead (2nd to 18th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedOhio State 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Oregon's offense ranks 98th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Ohio State defense it faces ranks 7th in EPA per play allowed. Ohio State's offense ranks 16th against Oregon's 9th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAOhio State 7–1
Who's more efficient, Oregon or Ohio State?
Oregon is better throwing (81st in EPA per pass) than running (118th). Ohio State's pass defense ranks 16th, so the defense has the better of it. Ohio State is better throwing (5th in EPA per pass) than running (83rd). Oregon's pass defense ranks 31st, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringOhio State 2–0
Who scores more, Oregon or Ohio State?
Oregon outscores FBS opponents by 11.8 a game, and Ohio State by 21.1. Oregon's offense ranks 38th in scoring, and the Ohio State defense it faces ranks 13th in points allowed. Ohio State's offense ranks 19th against Oregon's 47th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ohio State's offense against Oregon's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseOhio State 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Oregon has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 33rd, against a defense ranked 26th in explosive plays allowed. Ohio State's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 15th in explosive play rate, and Oregon's defense ranks 63rd in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseOhio State 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Oregon's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 17th in interception rate, and Ohio State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (121st). That's a mismatch. Ohio State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed, and Oregon's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (92nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontOhio State 10–2
Who wins up front?
Ohio State has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Ohio State ranks 30th and Oregon 97th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversOhio State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Oregon is 0.0 a game and Ohio State +0.3. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Ohio State's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.4 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentOregon 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Oregon has the more talented roster (3rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Ohio State is 5th). But Ohio State plays further above its talent: +9.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Oregon's −3.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyOhio State 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Oregon's roster is valued at $44.3M, Ohio State's at $37.9M. Dollar for dollar, Ohio State plays better: +9.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.5 for Oregon.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSOhio State 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Oregon is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.5). Ohio State is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.8). Ohio State's record is 0.8 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Oregon at Ohio State: questions people ask
Oregon vs. Ohio State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Ohio State, 88% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Ohio State's best matchup is its run defense, 8th in EPA per rush allowed, against Oregon's run game at 125th.
Where can I watch Oregon vs. Ohio State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET at Ohio Stadium. It's on CBS.
What's the projected score of Oregon vs. Ohio State?
SP+ projects Ohio State 31–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Oregon at Ohio State?
DraftKings has Ohio State −14, total 45.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Oregon vs. Ohio State series history?
Ohio State leads 10–2. Last meeting: Ohio State won 41–21 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Oregon vs. Ohio State?
Oregon: Dylan Raiola (1,126 passing yards), Jordon Davison (439 rushing yards) and Dakorien Moore (557 receiving yards). Ohio State: Sayin (2,007 passing yards), Bo Jackson (516 rushing yards) and Jeremiah Smith (984 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Oregon at Ohio State?
Oregon's is Dylan Raiola (1,126 passing yards this season); Ohio State's is Sayin (2,007 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Oregon at Ohio State?
Oregon: Dante Moore (QB), out for season. Ohio State: Sayin (QB), out indefinitely; Ja'Kobi Jackson (RB) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Oregon: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Ohio State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.