Rice vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
90% chance to win
- North Texas' offense should move it. North Texas is top-10 (2nd) in points per game, and Rice is bottom-20 (122nd) in points allowed.
- North Texas should keep its quarterback clean. North Texas is top-10 (6th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and Rice is bottom-40 (109th) in sack rate.
Rice at North Texas
Projected score: Rice 26, North Texas 42 (total 67).SP+: North Texas by 16.1, 87% chance to win.PRIME: North Texas by 15.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- DATCU Stadium
- Series
- North Texas leads 9–5
- Last meeting
- North Texas 56–24 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | North Texas by 16.1 | 87% | 67 |
| PRIME | North Texas by 15.8 | 87% | |
| Elo | North Texas | 97% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Rice or North Texas?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Rice vs. North Texas?
All three ratings favor North Texas, by 15.8 to 16.1 points, and it isn't close. North Texas' best matchup is its scoring offense, 2nd in points per game, against Rice's scoring defense at 122nd. Rice's way back in is its run game, 17th in yards per carry, against North Texas' run defense at 65th.
Rice with the ball
North Texas with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Rice and North Texas?
Rice
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
North Texas
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Rice and North Texas compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Rice and North Texas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Rice's and North Texas' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsNorth Texas 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Rice and North Texas?
On a neutral field, SP+ has North Texas 13.6 points better (72nd to 122nd). PRIME also has North Texas ahead, by 13.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has North Texas ahead (37th to 127th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedNorth Texas 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Rice's offense ranks 111th in adjusted EPA per play, and the North Texas defense it faces ranks 70th in EPA per play allowed. North Texas' offense ranks 10th against Rice's 102nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Texas' offense against Rice's defense. The biggest edge on the board is North Texas' big plays: 17th in adjusted explosiveness, against Rice's 131st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and North Texas' defense climbs from 90th to 70th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPANorth Texas 7–1
Who's more efficient, Rice or North Texas?
Rice is better running (43rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (138th). North Texas' run defense ranks 27th. North Texas is better throwing (2nd in EPA per pass) than running (37th). Rice's pass defense ranks 74th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, North Texas has the edge: its offense ranks 13th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 133rd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Rice or North Texas?
Rice is outscored by 10.8 a game, and North Texas by 11.9. Rice's offense ranks 117th in scoring, and the North Texas defense it faces ranks 123rd in points allowed. North Texas' offense ranks 2nd against Rice's 122nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Texas' offense against Rice's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseNorth Texas 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Rice's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 17th in yards per carry, and North Texas' defense ranks 65th in yards per carry allowed. North Texas' best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 13th in explosive play rate, and Rice's defense ranks 115th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseNorth Texas 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
North Texas' defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 65th in sack rate, and Rice's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (132nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where North Texas ranks 13th and Rice 134th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversNorth Texas 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
North Texas is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Rice is −0.8. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for North Texas. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and North Texas' takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.5 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
North Texas has the more talented roster (95th in the 247Sports talent composite; Rice is 100th). North Texas also plays further above its talent: +3.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Rice's −9.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSNorth Texas 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Rice is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). North Texas is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.4). North Texas' record is running 1.4 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Rice at North Texas: questions people ask
Rice vs. North Texas prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick North Texas, 90% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. North Texas' best matchup is its scoring offense, 2nd in points per game, against Rice's scoring defense at 122nd.
Where can I watch Rice vs. North Texas, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET at DATCU Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Rice vs. North Texas?
SP+ projects North Texas 42–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Rice vs. North Texas series history?
North Texas leads 9–5. Last meeting: North Texas won 56–24 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Rice vs. North Texas?
Rice: Jacurri Brown (499 passing yards), Tyvonn Byars (459 rushing yards) and Jordan Clark (269 receiving yards). North Texas: Tayven Jackson (2,602 passing yards), Jahiem White (1,046 rushing yards) and Justin Stevenson (785 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Rice at North Texas?
Rice's is Jacurri Brown (499 passing yards this season); North Texas' is Tayven Jackson (2,602 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Rice: every stat, rank and the schedule
- North Texas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTSA at Florida Atlantic: the numbers' pick
- South Florida at East Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Tulsa at Tulane: the numbers' pick
- Temple at Navy: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.