Rutgers vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
91% chance to win
- Wisconsin's run game has the edge on Rutgers' run defense. Wisconsin is above average (32nd) in EPA per rush, and Rutgers is bottom-20 (132nd) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Wisconsin's offensive line has the edge on Rutgers' run-stopping front. Wisconsin is above average (45th) in line yards per carry, and Rutgers is bottom-20 (116th) in line yards allowed per carry.
Rutgers is without QB Dylan Lonergan (1,066 passing yards). Rutgers has played one game without Lonergan and lost it by 7 (it lost by 4 ppg with him). One game isn't enough to know yet.
Rutgers at Wisconsin
Projected score: Rutgers 17, Wisconsin 33 (total 50).SP+: Wisconsin by 16.1, 87% chance to win.PRIME: Wisconsin by 27.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET
- TV
- BTN
- Where
- Camp Randall Stadium
- Series
- Wisconsin leads 6–0
- Last meeting
- Wisconsin 42–7 in 2024
- Rutgers injuries
- Lonergan (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Wisconsin by 16.1 | 87% | 50 |
| PRIME | Wisconsin by 27.6 | 98% | |
| Elo | Wisconsin | 88% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Rutgers or Wisconsin?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Rutgers vs. Wisconsin?
All three ratings favor Wisconsin, by 16.1 to 27.6 points, and it isn't close. Wisconsin's best matchup is its run game, 32nd in EPA per rush, against Rutgers' run defense at 132nd. Rutgers doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces. We left out the edges built on Lonergan, who's out.
Rutgers with the ball
Wisconsin with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Rutgers and Wisconsin?
Rutgers
- Lonergan (QB), out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31). Left the Oct. 24 game at Northwestern in the first quarter after a blow to the head (AP via La Nación; ClutchPoints). The Big Ten report lists him out. No timeline found. (as of Oct 30, 2026)
- Kaj Sanders (#1), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Zahmir Dawud (#12), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Joey Kopec (#38), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyler Needham (#56), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kevin Levy (#7), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- KJ Duff (WR), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Wisconsin
- Cai Bates (#3), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Nate Palmer (#15), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Barrett Nelson (#70), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Rutgers and Wisconsin compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Rutgers and Wisconsin are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Rutgers' and Wisconsin's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsWisconsin 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Rutgers and Wisconsin?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Wisconsin 13.6 points better (40th to 95th). PRIME also has Wisconsin ahead, by 25.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Wisconsin ahead (40th to 97th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedWisconsin 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Rutgers' offense ranks 82nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Wisconsin defense it faces ranks 3rd in EPA per play allowed. Wisconsin's offense ranks 57th against Rutgers' 126th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Wisconsin's offense against Rutgers' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Wisconsin's run game: 32nd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Rutgers' 132nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Wisconsin's offense climbs from 79th to 57th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAWisconsin 6–1
Who's more efficient, Rutgers or Wisconsin?
Rutgers is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (89th). Wisconsin's pass defense ranks 6th, so the defense has the better of it. Wisconsin is better running (34th in EPA per rush) than throwing (110th). Rutgers' run defense ranks 133rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Wisconsin has the edge: its offense ranks 58th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 109th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Rutgers or Wisconsin?
Rutgers is outscored by 4.8 a game, and Wisconsin by 6.5. Rutgers' offense ranks 73rd in scoring, and the Wisconsin defense it faces ranks 19th in points allowed. Wisconsin's offense ranks 97th against Rutgers' 127th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Wisconsin's offense against Rutgers' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseRutgers 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Rutgers' best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 40th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Wisconsin's defense ranks 70th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Wisconsin's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 34th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Rutgers' defense ranks 108th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseWisconsin 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Rutgers' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 89th in interception rate, and Wisconsin's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (116th). Wisconsin's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 6th in yards per carry allowed, and Rutgers' offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (74th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontRutgers 7–5
Who wins up front?
Rutgers has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Wisconsin ranks 48th and Rutgers 113th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversWisconsin 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Wisconsin is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Rutgers is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Wisconsin. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentRutgers 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Wisconsin has the more talented roster (30th in the 247Sports talent composite; Rutgers is 48th). Wisconsin also plays further above its talent: +2.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Rutgers' −7.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyWisconsin 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Rutgers' roster is valued at $20.9M, Wisconsin's at $20.8M. Dollar for dollar, Wisconsin plays better: +2.7 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −11.1 for Rutgers.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSWisconsin 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Rutgers is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.1). Wisconsin is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.7).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Rutgers at Wisconsin: questions people ask
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Wisconsin, 91% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Wisconsin's best matchup is its run game, 32nd in EPA per rush, against Rutgers' run defense at 132nd.
Where can I watch Rutgers vs. Wisconsin, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET at Camp Randall Stadium. It's on BTN.
What's the projected score of Rutgers vs. Wisconsin?
SP+ projects Wisconsin 33–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Rutgers vs. Wisconsin series history?
Wisconsin leads 6–0. Last meeting: Wisconsin won 42–7 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Rutgers vs. Wisconsin?
Rutgers: Lonergan (1,066 passing yards), Antwan Raymond (742 rushing yards) and KJ Duff (774 receiving yards). Wisconsin: Colton Joseph (1,350 passing yards), Abu Sama III (305 rushing yards) and Tyrell Henry (346 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Rutgers at Wisconsin?
Rutgers' is Lonergan (1,066 passing yards this season); Wisconsin's is Colton Joseph (1,350 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Rutgers at Wisconsin?
Rutgers: Lonergan (QB), out.
Keep going
- Rutgers: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Wisconsin: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nebraska at Illinois: the numbers' pick
- Penn State at Washington: the numbers' pick
- Iowa at Northwestern: the numbers' pick
- Michigan State at Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.