South Alabama vs. Louisiana Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayLouisiana76% chance to win
- Louisiana's scoring offense has the edge on South Alabama's scoring defense. Louisiana is middle of the pack (56th) in points per game, and South Alabama is bottom-20 (128th) in points allowed.
- Louisiana's run game has the edge on South Alabama's run defense. Louisiana is middle of the pack (65th) in EPA per rush, and South Alabama is bottom-20 (131st) in EPA per rush allowed.
South Alabama at Louisiana
Projected score: South Alabama 26, Louisiana 40 (total 65).SP+: Louisiana by 14.4, 85% chance to win.PRIME: Louisiana by 5.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Cajun Field
- Series
- Louisiana leads 10–4
- Last meeting
- Louisiana 31–22 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisiana by 14.4 | 85% | 65 |
| PRIME | Louisiana by 5.3 | 65% | |
| Elo | Louisiana | 79% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, South Alabama or Louisiana?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide South Alabama vs. Louisiana?
All three ratings favor Louisiana, by 5.3 to 14.4 points. Louisiana's best matchup is its scoring offense, 56th in points per game, against South Alabama's scoring defense at 128th. South Alabama's way back in is its pass protection, 57th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Louisiana's pass rush at 114th.
South Alabama with the ball
Louisiana with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for South Alabama and Louisiana?
South Alabama
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Louisiana
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How South Alabama and Louisiana compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; South Alabama and Louisiana are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How South Alabama's and Louisiana's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsLouisiana 8–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate South Alabama and Louisiana?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisiana 11.9 points better (68th to 115th). PRIME also has Louisiana ahead, by 2.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisiana ahead (65th to 104th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
South Alabama's offense ranks 34th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Louisiana defense it faces ranks 27th in EPA per play allowed. Louisiana's offense ranks 81st against South Alabama's 127th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana's offense against South Alabama's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Louisiana's run game: 65th in adjusted EPA per rush, against South Alabama's 131st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, South Alabama or Louisiana?
South Alabama is better running (26th in EPA per rush) than throwing (43rd). Louisiana's run defense ranks 13th, so that's strength on strength. Louisiana is better running (43rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (97th). South Alabama's run defense ranks 128th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, South Alabama or Louisiana?
South Alabama outscores FBS opponents by 0.4 a game, and Louisiana by 8.9. South Alabama's offense ranks 38th in scoring, and the Louisiana defense it faces ranks 45th in points allowed. Louisiana's offense ranks 56th against South Alabama's 128th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana's offense against South Alabama's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseSouth Alabama 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
South Alabama's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 38th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Louisiana's defense ranks 89th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Louisiana's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 79th in success rate, and South Alabama's defense ranks 121st in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseLouisiana 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontLouisiana 11–1
Who wins up front?
Louisiana has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Louisiana ranks 14th and South Alabama 55th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversSouth Alabama 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
South Alabama is +1.0 in turnover margin a game and Louisiana is +0.5. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for South Alabama. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Louisiana's takeaways lean on them (1.1 of 1.9 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentLouisiana 8–2
Which team has more talent?
Louisiana has the more talented roster (99th in the 247Sports talent composite; South Alabama is 107th). Louisiana also plays further above its talent: +4.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to South Alabama's −5.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSLouisiana 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
South Alabama is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.5). Louisiana is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.9). Louisiana's record is 0.8 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
South Alabama at Louisiana: questions people ask
South Alabama vs. Louisiana prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Louisiana, 76% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Louisiana's best matchup is its scoring offense, 56th in points per game, against South Alabama's scoring defense at 128th.
Where can I watch South Alabama vs. Louisiana, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET at Cajun Field. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of South Alabama vs. Louisiana?
SP+ projects Louisiana 40–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the South Alabama vs. Louisiana series history?
Louisiana leads 10–4. Last meeting: Louisiana won 31–22 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in South Alabama vs. Louisiana?
South Alabama: Jared Hollins (1,258 passing yards), Keenan Phillips (576 rushing yards) and Brendan Jenkins (451 receiving yards). Louisiana: D'Wayne' Winfield (1,465 passing yards), JJ Garner (260 rushing yards) and Kedarius Wade (279 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in South Alabama at Louisiana?
South Alabama's is Jared Hollins (1,258 passing yards this season); Louisiana's is D'Wayne' Winfield (1,465 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- South Alabama: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisiana: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at Southern Miss: the numbers' pick
- Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia State at App State: the numbers' pick
- UL Monroe at Arkansas State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.