UCF vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
65% chance to win
- Kansas' run-stopping front has the edge on UCF's offensive line. Kansas is above average (43rd) in line yards allowed per carry, and UCF is bottom-20 (119th) in line yards per carry.
- Kansas' pass protection has the edge on UCF's pass rush. Kansas is middle of the pack (51st) in sacks allowed per dropback, and UCF is bottom-40 (111th) in sack rate.
UCF at Kansas
Projected score: UCF 25, Kansas 26 (total 51).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Kansas by 3.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, time TBA
- Where
- Memorial Stadium
- Series
- Kansas leads 2–0
- Last meeting
- Kansas 27–20 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Kansas by 0.8 | 52% | 51 |
| PRIME | Kansas by 3.6 | 60% | |
| Elo | Kansas | 81% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, UCF or Kansas?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide UCF vs. Kansas?
All three ratings favor Kansas, by 0.8 to 3.6 points. Kansas' best matchup is its run-stopping front, 43rd in line yards allowed per carry, against UCF's offensive line at 119th. UCF's way back in is its pass defense, 56th in EPA per pass allowed, against Kansas' passing game at 117th.
UCF with the ball
Kansas with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for UCF and Kansas?
UCF
- Taevion Swint (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- DJ Bell (#5), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Demari Henderson (DB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Lewis Carter (#20), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Tyler Gibson (#75), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Caleb Rollerson (#13), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
- Alonza Barnett III (#14), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 30)
Kansas
- Syeed Gibbs (#2), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jalen Dupree (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Mason Ellis (#23), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jack Utz (#35), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kasen Carpenter (#51), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Griffin Baker (#80), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Isaiah Marshall (QB), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Elijah Cannon (#10), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jaden Harris (#12), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How UCF and Kansas compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UCF and Kansas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How UCF's and Kansas' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsKansas 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate UCF and Kansas?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UCF 1.7 points better (56th to 60th). PRIME has Kansas by 1.1 instead. The two ratings split on Kansas' defense: 57th in SP+, 27th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Kansas ahead (50th to 89th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedUCF 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
UCF's offense ranks 63rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Kansas defense it faces ranks 46th in EPA per play allowed. Kansas' offense ranks 60th against UCF's 31st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is UCF's backs in the open field: 61st in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Kansas' 123rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and UCF's offense climbs from 99th to 63rd in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAKansas 6–2
Who's more efficient, UCF or Kansas?
UCF is about as good throwing (92nd in EPA per pass) as running (101st). Kansas is better running (34th in EPA per rush) than throwing (113th). UCF's run defense ranks 21st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, UCF or Kansas?
UCF outscores FBS opponents by 4.6 a game, and Kansas by 5.3. UCF's offense ranks 57th in scoring, and the Kansas defense it faces ranks 61st in points allowed. Kansas' offense ranks 63rd against UCF's 74th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseUCF 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
UCF's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 54th in explosive play rate, and Kansas' defense ranks 81st in explosive plays allowed. Kansas has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 11th, against a defense ranked 20th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUCF 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
UCF's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 58th in interception rate, and Kansas' offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (107th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontKansas 9–3
Who wins up front?
Kansas has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Kansas ranks 24th and UCF 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUCF 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
UCF is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Kansas is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for UCF. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Kansas' takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.0 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentUCF 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Kansas has the more talented roster (62nd in the 247Sports talent composite; UCF is 66th). But UCF plays further above its talent: +3.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Kansas' +1.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyUCF 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Kansas' roster is valued at $20.2M, UCF's at $18.7M. Dollar for dollar, UCF plays better: +0.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −2.6 for Kansas.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSUCF 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
UCF is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.8). Kansas is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−0.8).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
UCF at Kansas: questions people ask
UCF vs. Kansas prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Kansas, 65% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Kansas' best matchup is its run-stopping front, 43rd in line yards allowed per carry, against UCF's offensive line at 119th.
Where can I watch UCF vs. Kansas, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, time TBA at Memorial Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of UCF vs. Kansas?
SP+ projects Kansas 26–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the UCF vs. Kansas series history?
Kansas leads 2–0. Last meeting: Kansas won 27–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in UCF vs. Kansas?
UCF: Keyone Jenkins (1,205 passing yards), Duke Watson (552 rushing yards) and Joshua Derry (436 receiving yards). Kansas: Isaiah Marshall (1,488 passing yards), Dylan Edwards (512 rushing yards) and Nik McMillan (432 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in UCF at Kansas?
UCF's is Keyone Jenkins (1,205 passing yards this season); Kansas' is Isaiah Marshall (1,488 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- UCF: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kansas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: the numbers' pick
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: the numbers' pick
- Iowa State at Baylor: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.