Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayAlabama92% chance to win
- Alabama should stop the run. Alabama is top-25 (11th) in yards per carry allowed, and Vanderbilt is bottom-20 (132nd) in yards per carry.
- Alabama's front should win up front. Alabama is top-10 (4th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Vanderbilt is bottom-20 (119th) in line yards per carry.
Updated
Alabama at Vanderbilt
Projected score: Alabama 39, Vanderbilt 17 (total 56).SP+: Alabama by 21.7, 94% chance to win.PRIME: Alabama by 18.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:45 PM ET
- TV
- SEC Network
- Where
- FirstBank Stadium
- Weather
- 48°, fair, wind 7 mph
- Line
- Alabama −17.5, total 50.5
- Line movement
- Opened Alabama −19.5; moved 2 points toward Vanderbilt. Total opened 54.5, down 4.
- Series
- Alabama leads 64–19–4
- Last meeting
- Alabama 30–14 in 2025
- Vanderbilt injuries
- Blaze Berlowitz (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Alabama by 21.7 | 94% | 56 |
| PRIME | Alabama by 18.4 | 91% | |
| Elo | Alabama | 90% | |
| The line | Alabama −17.5, opened −19.5 | 50.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Alabama or Vanderbilt?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Alabama spread | Vanderbilt spread | Over | Under | Alabama moneyline | Vanderbilt moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −17.5 −102 | +17.5 −118 | 50.5 −108 | 50.5 −112 | −950 | +625 |
| FanDuel | −17.5 −110 | +17.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −110 | 50.5 −110 | −1000 | +660 |
| BetMGM | −17 −110 | +17 −108 | 50.5 −108 | 50.5 −110 | −900 (best price) | +625 |
| Caesars | −17.5 −104 | +17.5 −117 | 50.5 −112 | 50.5 −109 (best price) | −950 | +600 |
| ESPN BET | −17.5 −110 | +17.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −105 (best price) | 50.5 −115 | −1200 | +700 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −17 −112 | +17 −112 | 50.5 −113 | 50.5 −110 | −1000 | +575 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −16.5 −115 (best price) | +16.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 | 50.5 −110 | −900 (best price) | +575 |
| Fanatics | −17 −110 | +17 −110 | 50.5 −110 | 50.5 −110 | −900 (best price) | +600 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Alabama vs. Vanderbilt?
All three ratings favor Alabama, by 18.4 to 21.7 points, and it isn't close. Alabama's best matchup is their run defense, 11th in yards per carry allowed, against Vanderbilt's run game at 132nd. Vanderbilt doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces. We left out the edges built on Edwin Kolenge and Berlowitz, who are out.
Alabama with the ball
Vanderbilt
AlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaVanderbilt with the ball
AlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Alabama and Vanderbilt played lately?
Alabama
3–2 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 31–13 at LSU Week 10
- W 31–20 vs. Texas A&M Week 8
- L 10–26 at Tennessee Week 7
- L 17–20 vs. Georgia Week 6
- W 56–23 at Mississippi State Week 5
Vanderbilt
1–4 in the last five.
- W 25–23 at Mississippi State Week 10
- L 17–34 at Kentucky Week 8
- L 21–31 vs. Arkansas Week 7
- L 17–52 vs. Ole Miss Week 6
- L 14–38 at Georgia Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Alabama and Vanderbilt?
Alabama
- Desmond Umeozulu (#9), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Cayden Jones (#23), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Mhari Johnson (#26), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Nick Sherman (#29), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Josh Ford (#40), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Casey Poe (#50), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jeremiah Beaman (#92), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Zabien Brown (DB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Keelon Russell (QB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- EJ Crowell (RB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Chuck McDonald III (DB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- William Sanders (#70), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Vanderbilt
- Berlowitz (QB), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14). Backup to Jared Curtis. Broken collarbone, surgery Oct. 13; Clark Lea said he'd miss about a month (Rotoballer, SI). The SEC report lists him out for Kentucky; no newer return date found. (as of Nov 6, 2026)
- Kolenge (EDGE), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Josiah Broxton (#18), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Evan Hampton (#23), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Daniel Vollmer Jr. (#34), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Gunner Givens (#50), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Aaron Bryant (#55), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ted Gregoire (#71), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Alabama and Vanderbilt compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Alabama and Vanderbilt are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Alabama's and Vanderbilt's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsAlabama 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Alabama and Vanderbilt?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Alabama 24.2 points better (8th to 78th). PRIME also has Alabama ahead, by 20.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Alabama ahead (5th to 55th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedAlabama 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Alabama's offense ranks 8th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Vanderbilt defense it faces ranks 73rd in EPA per play allowed. Vanderbilt's offense ranks 99th against Alabama's 2nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Alabama's offense against Vanderbilt's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Alabama's passing game: 7th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Vanderbilt's 85th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAAlabama 7–1
Who's more efficient, Alabama or Vanderbilt?
Alabama is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (44th). Vanderbilt's pass defense ranks 95th, so that's a mismatch. Vanderbilt is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (100th). Alabama's pass defense ranks 28th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Alabama has the edge: their offense ranks 71st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 119th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringAlabama 2–0
Who scores more, Alabama or Vanderbilt?
Alabama outscores FBS opponents by 17.1 a game, and Vanderbilt is outscored by 6.4. Alabama's offense ranks 16th in scoring, and the Vanderbilt defense it faces ranks 109th in points allowed. Vanderbilt's offense ranks 103rd against Alabama's 35th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Alabama's offense against Vanderbilt's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseAlabama 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Alabama's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 30th in success rate, and Vanderbilt's defense ranks 116th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. Vanderbilt has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 91st, against a defense ranked 57th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseAlabama 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Alabama's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 11th in yards per carry allowed, and Vanderbilt's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (132nd). That's a mismatch. Vanderbilt's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 62nd in sack rate, and Alabama's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (126th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontAlabama 10–1
Who wins up front?
Alabama has the better number in 10 of 11. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Alabama ranks 34th and Vanderbilt 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversAlabama 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Alabama is +1.0 in turnover margin a game and Vanderbilt is −0.8. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 9-point edge for Alabama. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentAlabama 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Alabama has the more talented roster (4th in the 247Sports talent composite; Vanderbilt is 42nd). Alabama also plays further above their talent: +3.8 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Vanderbilt's −5.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyAlabama 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Alabama's roster is valued at $33.5M, Vanderbilt's at $24.9M. Alabama also plays better per dollar: +6.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −11.2 for Vanderbilt.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSAlabama 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Alabama is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.3). Vanderbilt is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−0.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Alabama traveling?
It's Alabama's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 2,447 miles, there and back, 125th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Alabama wins
45–17Week 2
34–17Week 8Alabama beat Kentucky 45–17 in Week 2. Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 34–17 in Week 8.Vanderbilt wins
25–23Week 10
41–34Week 3
27–24Week 8
26–10Week 7Vanderbilt beat Mississippi State 25–23 in Week 10. Mississippi State beat South Carolina 41–34 in Week 3. South Carolina beat Tennessee 27–24 in Week 8. Tennessee beat Alabama 26–10 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Alabama at Vanderbilt: questions people ask
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Alabama, 92% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Alabama's best matchup is their run defense, 11th in yards per carry allowed, against Vanderbilt's run game at 132nd.
Where can I watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:45 PM ET at FirstBank Stadium. It's on SEC Network.
What's the projected score of Alabama vs. Vanderbilt?
SP+ projects Alabama 39–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Alabama at Vanderbilt?
DraftKings has Alabama −17.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Alabama vs. Vanderbilt series history?
Alabama leads 64–19–4. Last meeting: Alabama won 30–14 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Alabama vs. Vanderbilt?
Alabama: Keelon Russell (2,263 passing yards), Trae'shawn Brown (359 rushing yards) and Rico Scott (501 receiving yards). Vanderbilt: Jared Curtis (1,657 passing yards), Sedrick Alexander (333 rushing yards) and Junior Sherrill (747 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Alabama at Vanderbilt?
Alabama's is Keelon Russell (2,263 passing yards this season); Vanderbilt's is Jared Curtis (1,657 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Alabama at Vanderbilt?
Vanderbilt: Berlowitz (QB), out.
Keep going
- Alabama: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Vanderbilt: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.