Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayTennessee70% chance to win
- Tennessee's pass defense should win its matchup. Tennessee is top-10 (5th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Texas A&M is bottom-20 (120th) in EPA per pass.
- Tennessee's defense has the edge on Texas A&M's offense. Tennessee is above average (27th) in yards per play allowed, and Texas A&M is bottom-20 (122nd) in yards per play.
Tennessee is without DL Tyree Weathersby (7 sacks and 1 takeaway). Tennessee has played one game without Weathersby and won it by 28 (they won by 16 ppg with him). One game isn't enough to know yet.
Updated
Tennessee at Texas A&M
Projected score: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 19 (total 47).SP+: Tennessee by 9.7, 76% chance to win.PRIME: Tennessee by 6.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Kyle Field
- Weather
- 66°, cloudy, wind 13 mph
- Line
- Tennessee −2.5, total 44.5
- Line movement
- Opened Texas A&M −8.5; moved 11 points toward Tennessee. Total opened 55.5, down 11.
- Series
- Tennessee leads 3–2
- Last meeting
- Tennessee 20–13 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Tennessee by 9.7 | 76% | 47 |
| PRIME | Tennessee by 6.5 | 68% | |
| Elo | Tennessee | 65% | |
| The line | Tennessee −2.5, opened Texas A&M −8.5 | 44.5, opened 55.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Tennessee or Texas A&M?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Tennessee spread | Texas A&M spread | Over | Under | Tennessee moneyline | Texas A&M moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 (best price) | 44.5 −105 | 44.5 −115 (best price) | −135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 (best price) | 43.5 −115 | 43.5 −105 | −140 | +118 (best price) |
| BetMGM | −2.5 −112 | +2.5 −105 (best price) | 43.5 −118 | 43.5 −102 | −135 | +115 |
| Caesars | −2.5 −114 | +2.5 −106 | 44 −113 | 44 −107 | −136 | +115 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 (best price) | 43.5 −120 | 43.5 +100 | −135 | +115 |
| BetRivers | −2 −114 (best price) | +2 −109 | 43.5 −109 (best price) | 43.5 −113 | −134 (best price) | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −105 | +2.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 | −135 | +110 |
| Fanatics | −2.5 −110 | +2.5 −110 | 44 −110 | 44 −110 | −140 | +115 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Tennessee vs. Texas A&M?
All three ratings favor Tennessee, by 6.5 to 9.7 points. Tennessee's best matchup is their pass defense, 5th in EPA per pass allowed, against Texas A&M's passing game at 120th. Texas A&M's way back in is their 3rd down defense, 17th in 3rd downs allowed, against Tennessee's 3rd down offense at 92nd. We left out the edges built on Weathersby, who's out.
Tennessee with the ball
Texas A&M with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Tennessee and Texas A&M played lately?
Tennessee
4–1 in the last five.
- W 34–6 vs. Kentucky Week 10
- L 24–27 at South Carolina Week 8
- W 26–10 vs. Alabama Week 7
- W 24–17 at Arkansas Week 6
- W 24–14 vs. Auburn Week 5
Texas A&M
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 9–17 at South Carolina Week 10
- L 20–31 at Alabama Week 8
- W 41–0 vs. The Citadel Week 7
- L 6–27 at Missouri Week 6
- W 34–7 vs. Arkansas Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Tennessee and Texas A&M?
Tennessee
- Ethan Davis (#0), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Joakim Dodson (#9), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jaedon Harmon (#12), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Edrees Farooq (#15), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Weathersby (DL), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Dylan Lewis (#24), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Wendell Moe Jr. (#75), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Texas A&M
- Terry Bussey (#6), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Kelshaun Johnson (#11), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Blake Ivy (#52), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trovon Baugh (#76), doubtful (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Mario Craver (WR), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Tennessee and Texas A&M compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Tennessee and Texas A&M are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Tennessee's and Texas A&M's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsTennessee 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Tennessee and Texas A&M?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Tennessee 12.2 points better (10th to 41st). PRIME also has Tennessee ahead, by 9.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Tennessee ahead (12th to 30th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedTennessee 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Tennessee's offense ranks 42nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Texas A&M defense it faces ranks 25th in EPA per play allowed. Texas A&M's offense ranks 88th against Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Texas A&M's offensive line in the run game: 35th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Tennessee's 74th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Texas A&M's defense climbs from 50th to 25th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPATennessee 5–3
Who's more efficient, Tennessee or Texas A&M?
Tennessee is better running (12th in EPA per rush) than throwing (99th). Texas A&M's run defense ranks 19th, so that's strength on strength. Texas A&M is better running (57th in EPA per rush) than throwing (107th). Tennessee's run defense ranks 38th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringTennessee 2–0
Who scores more, Tennessee or Texas A&M?
Tennessee outscores FBS opponents by 17.3 a game, and Texas A&M by 7.4. Tennessee's offense ranks 39th in scoring, and the Texas A&M defense it faces ranks 21st in points allowed. Texas A&M's offense ranks 86th against Tennessee's 10th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseTennessee 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Tennessee has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 83rd, against a defense ranked 104th in explosive plays allowed. Texas A&M has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 86th, against a defense ranked 104th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseTennessee 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Tennessee's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 25th in interception rate, and Texas A&M's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (108th). That's a mismatch. Texas A&M's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 17th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Tennessee's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (92nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontTennessee 8–4
Who wins up front?
Tennessee has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where Tennessee ranks 13th and Texas A&M 77th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversTennessee 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Tennessee is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Texas A&M is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Tennessee. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Tennessee's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.9 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentTexas A&M 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Texas A&M has the more talented roster (7th in the 247Sports talent composite; Tennessee is 13th). But Tennessee plays further above their talent: +6.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Texas A&M's −8.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyTennessee 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Texas A&M's roster is valued at $33.3M, Tennessee's at $33.2M. Dollar for dollar, Tennessee plays better: +4.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −7.8 for Texas A&M.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSTennessee 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Tennessee is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.5). Texas A&M is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.7). Texas A&M's record is 0.9 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Tennessee traveling?
It's Tennessee's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,491 miles, there and back, 105th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Tennessee wins
34–6Week 10
31–21Week 3
Tennessee beat Kentucky 34–6 in Week 10. Kentucky beat Texas A&M 31–21 in Week 3.Texas A&M wins
34–7Week 5
31–21Week 7
25–23Week 10
41–34Week 3
27–24Week 8Texas A&M beat Arkansas 34–7 in Week 5. Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31–21 in Week 7. Vanderbilt beat Mississippi State 25–23 in Week 10. Mississippi State beat South Carolina 41–34 in Week 3. South Carolina beat Tennessee 27–24 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Tennessee at Texas A&M: questions people ask
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Tennessee, 70% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Tennessee's best matchup is their pass defense, 5th in EPA per pass allowed, against Texas A&M's passing game at 120th.
Where can I watch Tennessee vs. Texas A&M, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET at Kyle Field. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Tennessee vs. Texas A&M?
SP+ projects Tennessee 28–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Tennessee at Texas A&M?
DraftKings has Tennessee −2.5, total 44.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Tennessee vs. Texas A&M series history?
Tennessee leads 3–2. Last meeting: Tennessee won 20–13 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in Tennessee vs. Texas A&M?
Tennessee: George MacIntyre (853 passing yards), DeSean Bishop (1,066 rushing yards) and Mike Matthews (566 receiving yards). Texas A&M: Marcel Reed (1,639 passing yards), Rueben Owens (469 rushing yards) and Isaiah Horton (392 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Tennessee at Texas A&M?
Tennessee's is George MacIntyre (853 passing yards this season); Texas A&M's is Marcel Reed (1,639 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Tennessee: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas A&M: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.