Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayOle Miss61% chance to win
Updated
Ole Miss at Oklahoma
Projected score: Ole Miss 25, Oklahoma 22 (total 47).SP+: Ole Miss by 3.2, 59% chance to win.PRIME: Ole Miss by 2.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 4:15 PM ET
- TV
- SEC Network
- Where
- Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
- Weather
- 54°, cloudy, wind 13 mph
- Line
- Oklahoma −1.5, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Opened Oklahoma −4; moved 2.5 points toward Ole Miss. Total opened 53.5, down 4.
- Series
- Ole Miss leads 3–0
- Last meeting
- Ole Miss 34–26 in 2025
- Ole Miss injuries
- Kewan Lacy (RB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Ole Miss by 3.2 | 59% | 47 |
| PRIME | Ole Miss by 2.8 | 58% | |
| Elo | Ole Miss | 66% | |
| The line | Oklahoma −1.5, opened −4 | 49.5, opened 53.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Ole Miss or Oklahoma?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Ole Miss spread | Oklahoma spread | Over | Under | Ole Miss moneyline | Oklahoma moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 −118 | −1.5 −102 | 49.5 −108 | 49.5 −112 | −108 | −112 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 −120 (best price) | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −110 | −108 | −110 |
| BetMGM | +1 −110 | −1 −108 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −112 | −108 | −110 |
| Caesars | +1 −109 | −1 −110 | 49.5 −112 | 49.5 −108 (best price) | −109 | −109 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 −115 (best price) | −1.5 −105 | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −110 | −110 | −110 |
| BetRivers | −1 −109 | +1 −114 | 49.5 −113 | 49.5 −110 | −114 | −109 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 −120 (best price) | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −110 | −115 | −110 |
| Fanatics | +1 −110 | −1 −110 | 49 −110 (best price) | 49 −110 | −105 (best price) | −115 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma?
All three ratings favor Ole Miss, by 2.8 to 3.2 points. Ole Miss' best matchup is their takeaway defense, 61st in interceptions per pass, against Oklahoma's ball security at 95th. Oklahoma's way back in is their takeaway defense, 11th in interceptions per pass, against Ole Miss' ball security at 100th.
Ole Miss with the ball
OklahomaOklahomaOklahoma with the ball
OklahomaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Ole Miss and Oklahoma played lately?
Ole Miss
3–2 in the last five.
- L 7–42 vs. Georgia Week 10
- W 45–15 vs. Auburn Week 9
- L 27–34 at Texas Week 8
- W 31–3 vs. Missouri Week 7
- W 52–17 at Vanderbilt Week 6
Oklahoma
3–2 in the last five.
- W 23–7 at Florida Week 10
- L 25–42 vs. South Carolina Week 9
- W 23–15 at Mississippi State Week 8
- L 13–21 vs. Kentucky Week 7
- W 27–24 vs. Texas Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Ole Miss and Oklahoma?
Ole Miss
- Lacy (RB), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14). Dislocated his left shoulder against Texas, the second time he's hurt that shoulder since offseason surgery. Pete Golding ruled him out for Auburn on Oct. 26 and gave no timeline; Nov. 7 against Georgia is at risk (Fox Sports, Yahoo Sports). (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Keaton Thomas (#11), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Izaiah Hartrup (#12), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Edwin Joseph (#14), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ant Davis Jr. (#26), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Kervin Johnson Jr. (#27), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- JaMichael Garrett (#30), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Gerald Lacy Jr. (#39), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Nascar McCoy (#46), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Carius Curne (#57), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Patrick Kutas (#75), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- MJ Preston (#19), doubtful (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Kam Franklin (#5), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Sharif Denson (#7), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Deuce Alexander (WR), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Will Echoles (#52), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Oklahoma
- Taylor Heim (#7), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Dakoda Fields (#9), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trell Harris (#11), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trynae Washington (#22), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Fred Hinton (#72), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ryan Fodje (#70), doubtful (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tory Blaylock (RB), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Cole Sullivan (#18), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- James Nesta (LB), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Caleb Nitta (#60), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jacobe Johnson (DB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Eddy Pierre-Louis (#55), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Ole Miss and Oklahoma compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Ole Miss and Oklahoma are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Ole Miss' and Oklahoma's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsOle Miss 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Ole Miss and Oklahoma?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Ole Miss 5.7 points better (30th to 45th). PRIME also has Ole Miss ahead, by 5.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Ole Miss ahead (11th to 33rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedOle Miss 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Ole Miss' offense ranks 12th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oklahoma defense it faces ranks 3rd in EPA per play allowed. Oklahoma's offense ranks 79th against Ole Miss' 67th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. Adjust for opponents and Ole Miss' defense climbs from 110th to 67th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Ole Miss or Oklahoma?
Ole Miss is about as good throwing (44th in EPA per pass) as running (31st). Oklahoma is better throwing (62nd in EPA per pass) than running (135th). Ole Miss' pass defense ranks 87th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Ole Miss or Oklahoma?
Ole Miss outscores FBS opponents by 7.8 a game, and Oklahoma by 2.9. Ole Miss' offense ranks 30th in scoring, and the Oklahoma defense it faces ranks 24th in points allowed. Oklahoma's offense ranks 107th against Ole Miss' 81st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseOle Miss 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Ole Miss has no clear edge here. Their best is success rate, 21st, against a defense ranked 11th in success rate allowed. Oklahoma's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 80th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Ole Miss' defense ranks 120th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseOklahoma 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Ole Miss' defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 86th in yards per carry allowed, and Oklahoma's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (134th). Oklahoma's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 11th in interception rate, and Ole Miss' offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (100th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontOle Miss 8–4
Who wins up front?
Ole Miss has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Ole Miss ranks 16th and Oklahoma 101st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversEven 3–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Ole Miss is −0.2 a game and Oklahoma −0.2.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentOklahoma 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Ole Miss has the more talented roster (14th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oklahoma is 17th). Ole Miss also plays further above their talent: −0.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Oklahoma's −3.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyOle Miss 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Ole Miss' roster is valued at $34.1M, Oklahoma's at $32.6M. Ole Miss also plays better per dollar: −3.1 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −7.8 for Oklahoma.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSOle Miss 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Ole Miss is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.7). Oklahoma is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.8). Ole Miss' record is running 1.1 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Ole Miss traveling?
It's Ole Miss' 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,873 miles, there and back, 99th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Ole Miss wins
45–15Week 9
27–24Week 7
41–13Week 4Ole Miss beat Auburn 45–15 in Week 9. Auburn beat Georgia 27–24 in Week 7. Georgia beat Oklahoma 41–13 in Week 4.Oklahoma wins
23–7Week 10
52–28Week 4Oklahoma beat Florida 23–7 in Week 10. Florida beat Ole Miss 52–28 in Week 4.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Ole Miss at Oklahoma: questions people ask
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Ole Miss, 61% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Ole Miss' best matchup is their takeaway defense, 61st in interceptions per pass, against Oklahoma's ball security at 95th.
Where can I watch Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 4:15 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK). It's on SEC Network.
What's the projected score of Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma?
SP+ projects Ole Miss 25–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Ole Miss at Oklahoma?
DraftKings has Oklahoma −1.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma series history?
Ole Miss leads 3–0. Last meeting: Ole Miss won 34–26 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma?
Ole Miss: Trinidad Chambliss (2,359 passing yards), Lacy (388 rushing yards) and Deuce Alexander (669 receiving yards). Oklahoma: John Mateer (2,042 passing yards), Lloyd Avant (394 rushing yards) and Isaiah Sategna (625 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Ole Miss at Oklahoma?
Ole Miss' is Trinidad Chambliss (2,359 passing yards this season); Oklahoma's is John Mateer (2,042 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Ole Miss at Oklahoma?
Ole Miss: Lacy (RB), out.
Keep going
- Ole Miss: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Oklahoma: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.