Auburn vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayMississippi State56% chance to win
- Mississippi State's pass rush has the edge on Auburn's pass protection. Mississippi State is above average (46th) in sack rate, and Auburn is bottom-20 (133rd) in sacks allowed per dropback.
- Mississippi State's run game has the edge on Auburn's run defense. Mississippi State is above average (33rd) in EPA per rush, and Auburn is middle of the pack (85th) in EPA per rush allowed.
Mississippi State is without QB Kamario Taylor (1,460 passing yards). Mississippi State has played 2 games without Taylor and lost both by 15 (they won by 8 ppg with him). The ratings have mostly caught up to that, so he barely moves the needle now.
That knocks the pick down a tier, from Coin flip to Stay away.
Updated
Auburn at Mississippi State
Projected score: Auburn 23, Mississippi State 27 (total 50).SP+: Mississippi State by 3.5, 60% chance to win.PRIME: Mississippi State by 5.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Weather
- 51°, wind 6 mph
- Line
- Auburn −2.5, total 50.5
- Line movement
- Opened Auburn −3.5; moved 1 point toward Mississippi State. Total opened 51.5, down 1.
- Series
- Auburn leads 63–31–3
- Last meeting
- Auburn 27–13 in 2023
- Mississippi State injuries
- Taylor (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Mississippi State by 3.5 | 60% | 50 |
| PRIME | Mississippi State by 5.8 | 66% | |
| Elo | Auburn | 56% | |
| The line | Auburn −2.5, opened −3.5 | 50.5, opened 51.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Auburn or Mississippi State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Auburn spread | Mississippi State spread | Over | Under | Auburn moneyline | Mississippi State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −2.5 −115 (best price) | +2.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −110 | −142 | +120 |
| FanDuel | −2.5 −120 | +2.5 +100 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −110 | −142 | +120 |
| BetMGM | −2.5 −115 (best price) | +2.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −108 (best price) | −145 | +120 |
| Caesars | −2.5 −121 | +2.5 +101 (best price) | 50.5 −112 | 50.5 −112 | −143 | +121 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 −115 (best price) | +2.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −110 | −145 | +125 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −2.5 −117 | +2.5 −107 | 50.5 −113 | 50.5 −110 | −137 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −115 (best price) | +2.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −110 | −135 (best price) | +110 |
| Fanatics | −2.5 −115 (best price) | +2.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −110 | −140 | +115 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Auburn vs. Mississippi State?
SP+ and PRIME take Mississippi State, but Elo has Auburn. Mississippi State's best matchup is their pass rush, 46th in sack rate, against Auburn's pass protection at 133rd. Auburn's way back in is their ball security, 73rd in interceptions thrown per pass, against Mississippi State's takeaway defense at 137th. We left out the edges built on Taylor, who's out.
Auburn with the ball
Mississippi State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Auburn and Mississippi State played lately?
Auburn
2–3 in the last five.
Mississippi State
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 23–25 vs. Vanderbilt Week 10
- L 3–31 at Texas Week 9
- L 15–23 vs. Oklahoma Week 8
- L 0–31 at LSU Week 7
- L 23–56 vs. Alabama Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Auburn and Mississippi State?
Auburn
- Bryce Deas (#16), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- De'marcus Riddick (#6), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Mississippi State
- Taylor (QB), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14). Toe, aggravated in the Oct. 24 loss to Oklahoma; season-ending surgery (Mississippi State statement, Oct. 27). Billy Puckett, who replaced him against Oklahoma, is in line to start. The SEC report lists him out; we keep "out for season" because of the school's statement. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Isaac Smith (#2), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jalen Smith (LB), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ayden Williams (#11), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trevion Williams (DL), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Diesel Moye (#99), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Amaree Williams (EDGE), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tyler Lockhart (LB), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Auburn and Mississippi State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Auburn and Mississippi State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Auburn's and Mississippi State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Auburn and Mississippi State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Mississippi State 1.0 points better (56th to 60th). PRIME also has Mississippi State ahead, by 3.3. Elo, which only sees results, has Auburn ahead (46th to 61st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedMississippi State 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Auburn's offense ranks 58th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Mississippi State defense it faces ranks 66th in EPA per play allowed. Mississippi State's offense ranks 47th against Auburn's 48th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Mississippi State's run game: 33rd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Auburn's 85th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Mississippi State's offense climbs from 85th to 47th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAAuburn 6–2
Who's more efficient, Auburn or Mississippi State?
Auburn is better running (53rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (97th). Mississippi State's run defense ranks 32nd. Mississippi State is about as good throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) as running (85th). On third down, Auburn has the edge: their offense ranks 66th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 104th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Auburn or Mississippi State?
Auburn is outscored by 2.0 a game, and Mississippi State is outscored by 1.6. Auburn's offense ranks 95th in scoring, and the Mississippi State defense it faces ranks 100th in points allowed. Mississippi State's offense ranks 85th against Auburn's 85th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseMississippi State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Auburn has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 47th, against a defense ranked 70th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Mississippi State's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 59th in success rate, and Auburn's defense ranks 91st in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseMississippi State 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Auburn's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 56th in sack rate, and Mississippi State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (130th). That's a mismatch. Mississippi State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 46th in sack rate, and Auburn's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (133rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontAuburn 9–3
Who wins up front?
Auburn has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Auburn ranks 46th and Mississippi State 83rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversAuburn 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Auburn is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Mississippi State is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Auburn. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Auburn has the more talented roster (18th in the 247Sports talent composite; Mississippi State is 20th). But Mississippi State plays further above their talent: −5.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Auburn's −7.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyMississippi State 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Auburn's roster is valued at $27.7M, Mississippi State's at $21.2M. Dollar for dollar, Mississippi State plays better: −2.3 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −9.2 for Auburn.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSAuburn 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Auburn is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.6). Mississippi State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.6). Auburn's record is running 1.6 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Auburn traveling?
It's Auburn's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 1,932 miles, there and back, 134th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Auburn wins
21–15Week 4
25–23Week 10
Auburn beat Vanderbilt 21–15 in Week 4. Vanderbilt beat Mississippi State 25–23 in Week 10.Mississippi State wins
31–24Week 4
45–17Week 5
44–39Week 3Mississippi State beat Missouri 31–24 in Week 4. Missouri beat Florida 45–17 in Week 5. Florida beat Auburn 44–39 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Auburn at Mississippi State: questions people ask
Auburn vs. Mississippi State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Mississippi State, 56% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Auburn. Mississippi State's best matchup is their pass rush, 46th in sack rate, against Auburn's pass protection at 133rd.
Where can I watch Auburn vs. Mississippi State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Davis Wade Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Auburn vs. Mississippi State?
SP+ projects Mississippi State 27–23. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Auburn at Mississippi State?
DraftKings has Auburn −2.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Auburn vs. Mississippi State series history?
Auburn leads 63–31–3. Last meeting: Auburn won 27–13 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in Auburn vs. Mississippi State?
Auburn: Byrum Brown (1,737 passing yards), Jeremiah Cobb (396 rushing yards) and Keshaun Singleton (491 receiving yards). Mississippi State: Taylor (1,460 passing yards), Fluff Bothwell (613 rushing yards) and Anthony Evans III (711 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Auburn at Mississippi State?
Auburn's is Byrum Brown (1,737 passing yards this season); Mississippi State's is Taylor (1,460 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Auburn at Mississippi State?
Mississippi State: Taylor (QB), out.
Keep going
- Auburn: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Mississippi State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.