Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayGeorgia92% chance to win
- Georgia's defense should win on early downs. Georgia is top-10 (2nd) in SUPLEX allowed, and Missouri is bottom-40 (98th) in SUPLEX.
- Georgia should hit big plays. Georgia is top-10 (4th) in explosive play rate, and Missouri is middle of the pack (90th) in explosive plays allowed.
Updated
Missouri at Georgia
Projected score: Missouri 12, Georgia 33 (total 45).SP+: Georgia by 20.1, 92% chance to win.PRIME: Georgia by 20.7.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ABC
- Where
- Sanford Stadium
- Weather
- 56°, clear, wind 9 mph
- Line
- Georgia −16.5, total 47.5
- Line movement
- Opened Georgia −12.5; moved 4 points toward Georgia. Total opened 46.5, up 1.
- Series
- Georgia leads 12–1
- Last meeting
- Georgia 30–21 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Georgia by 20.1 | 92% | 45 |
| PRIME | Georgia by 20.7 | 93% | |
| Elo | Georgia | 92% | |
| The line | Georgia −16.5, opened −12.5 | 47.5, opened 46.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Missouri or Georgia?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Missouri spread | Georgia spread | Over | Under | Missouri moneyline | Georgia moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +16.5 −112 | −16.5 −108 | 47.5 −115 | 47.5 −105 (best price) | +525 | −750 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +15.5 −110 | −15.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +550 | −780 |
| BetMGM | +16 −110 | −16 −108 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −108 | +575 | −750 (best price) |
| Caesars | +16 −113 | −16 −107 | 47.5 −112 | 47.5 −108 | +500 | −750 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | +16.5 −110 (best price) | −16.5 −110 | 47.5 −115 | 47.5 −105 (best price) | +600 (best price) | −1000 |
| BetRivers | +15.5 −110 | −15.5 −112 | 47.5 −109 (best price) | 47.5 −114 | +540 | −910 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +15.5 −110 | −15.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +550 | −850 |
| Fanatics | +16.5 −110 (best price) | −16.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +525 | −750 (best price) |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Missouri vs. Georgia?
All three ratings favor Georgia, by 20.1 to 20.7 points, and it isn't close. Georgia's best matchup is their early-down defense, 2nd in SUPLEX allowed, against Missouri's early-down offense at 98th. Missouri's way back in is their ball security, 7th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Georgia's takeaway defense at 47th.
Missouri with the ball
MissouriGeorgia with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Missouri and Georgia played lately?
Missouri
3–2 in the last five.
Georgia
4–1 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 42–7 at Ole Miss Week 10
- W 27–8 vs. Florida Week 9
- L 24–27 vs. Auburn Week 7
- W 20–17 at Alabama Week 6
- W 38–14 vs. Vanderbilt Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Missouri and Georgia?
Missouri
- Langden Kitchen (EDGE), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Malae Fonoti (#21), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Josh Atkins (#54), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Gavin Hoffman (#88), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Georgia
- Amaris Williams (#17), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Josh Horton (DT), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Missouri and Georgia compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Missouri and Georgia are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Missouri's and Georgia's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsGeorgia 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Missouri and Georgia?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia 17.6 points better (1st to 28th). PRIME also has Georgia ahead, by 18.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Georgia ahead (1st to 23rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedGeorgia 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Missouri's offense ranks 46th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia defense it faces ranks 20th in EPA per play allowed. Georgia's offense ranks 7th against Missouri's 26th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Missouri's backs in the open field: 28th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Georgia's 73rd-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAGeorgia 8–0
Who's more efficient, Missouri or Georgia?
Missouri is better throwing (37th in EPA per pass) than running (93rd). Georgia's pass defense ranks 25th. Georgia is about as good throwing (9th in EPA per pass) as running (11th). On third down, Georgia has the edge: their offense ranks 13th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 113th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringGeorgia 2–0
Who scores more, Missouri or Georgia?
Missouri outscores FBS opponents by 10.1 a game, and Georgia by 27.1. Missouri's offense ranks 54th in scoring, and the Georgia defense it faces ranks 7th in points allowed. Georgia's offense ranks 5th against Missouri's 34th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia's offense against Missouri's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseGeorgia 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Missouri has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 81st, against a defense ranked 50th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Georgia's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 4th in explosive play rate, and Missouri's defense ranks 90th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseGeorgia 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Georgia's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 2nd in SUPLEX allowed, and Missouri's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (98th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontGeorgia 9–3
Who wins up front?
Georgia has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Georgia ranks 9th and Missouri 110th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversMissouri 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Missouri is +1.0 a game and Georgia +0.9. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Georgia's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.9 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentGeorgia 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Georgia has the more talented roster (1st in the 247Sports talent composite; Missouri is 19th). Georgia also plays further above their talent: +10.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Missouri's +4.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyGeorgia 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Georgia's roster is valued at $31.3M, Missouri's at $26.4M. Georgia also plays better per dollar: +16.6 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +2.7 for Missouri.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSGeorgia 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Missouri is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.2). Georgia is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.3).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Missouri traveling?
It's Missouri's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,526 miles, there and back, 105th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Missouri wins
45–17Week 5
44–39Week 3
27–24Week 7
Missouri beat Florida 45–17 in Week 5. Florida beat Auburn 44–39 in Week 3. Auburn beat Georgia 27–24 in Week 7.Georgia wins
42–7Week 10
31–3Week 7Georgia beat Ole Miss 42–7 in Week 10. Ole Miss beat Missouri 31–3 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Missouri at Georgia: questions people ask
Missouri vs. Georgia prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Georgia, 92% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Georgia's best matchup is their early-down defense, 2nd in SUPLEX allowed, against Missouri's early-down offense at 98th.
Where can I watch Missouri vs. Georgia, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Sanford Stadium. It's on ABC.
What's the projected score of Missouri vs. Georgia?
SP+ projects Georgia 33–12. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Missouri at Georgia?
DraftKings has Georgia −16.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Missouri vs. Georgia series history?
Georgia leads 12–1. Last meeting: Georgia won 30–21 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in Missouri vs. Georgia?
Missouri: Austin Simmons (2,187 passing yards), Jamal Roberts (1,071 rushing yards) and Cayden Lee (809 receiving yards). Georgia: Gunner Stockton (1,857 passing yards), Dwight Phillips Jr. (481 rushing yards) and Talyn Taylor (426 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Missouri at Georgia?
Missouri's is Austin Simmons (2,187 passing yards this season); Georgia's is Gunner Stockton (1,857 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Missouri: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Georgia: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.