App State vs. Marshall Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayApp State55% chance to win
- App State should hit big plays. App State is top-25 (15th) in explosive play rate, and Marshall is bottom-40 (96th) in explosive plays allowed.
Updated
App State at Marshall
Projected score: App State 31, Marshall 26 (total 57).SP+: App State by 5.4, 65% chance to win.PRIME: App State by 3.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Joan C. Edwards Stadium
- Weather
- 43°, fair, wind 7 mph
- Line
- App State −1.5, total 54.5
- Line movement
- Opened App State −2.5; moved 1 point toward Marshall. Total opened 53.5, up 1.
- Series
- App State leads 7–5
- Last meeting
- App State 26–24 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | App State by 5.4 | 65% | 57 |
| PRIME | App State by 3.6 | 60% | |
| Elo | Marshall | 61% | |
| The line | App State −1.5, opened −2.5 | 54.5, opened 53.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, App State or Marshall?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | App State spread | Marshall spread | Over | Under | App State moneyline | Marshall moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −1.5 −112 | +1.5 −108 | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 (best price) | −120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | −120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | 53.5 −108 | −118 (best price) | +100 |
| Caesars | −1.5 −107 (best price) | +1.5 −113 | 54 −114 | 54 −106 | −122 | +104 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 (best price) | −120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 −115 | +1.5 −108 | 53.5 −112 | 53.5 −112 | −127 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 −115 | +1.5 −105 (best price) | 53.5 −110 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | −125 | +100 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 | 54 −110 | 54 −110 | −120 | +100 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide App State vs. Marshall?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with App State ahead by a hair. App State's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 25th in interceptions per pass, against Marshall's ball security at 118th. Marshall's way back in is their pass protection, 66th in sacks allowed per dropback, against App State's pass rush at 126th.
App State with the ball
App StateApp StateApp StateApp StateApp State
MarshallApp StateMarshall with the ball
MarshallApp StateApp StateApp StateApp StateApp StateApp StateEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have App State and Marshall played lately?
App State
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 23–39 vs. Georgia State Week 10
- L 3–19 at Georgia Southern Week 9
- W 34–31 vs. James Madison Week 8
- W 35–32 at Coastal Carolina Week 7
- L 3–10 vs. Old Dominion Week 6
Marshall
2–3 in the last five.
- L 13–49 at Georgia Southern Week 10
- W 36–23 at Old Dominion Week 9
- W 20–13 vs. South Alabama Week 8
- L 21–27 vs. Coastal Carolina Week 6
- L 17–45 at James Madison Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for App State and Marshall?
App State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Marshall
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How App State and Marshall compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; App State and Marshall are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How App State's and Marshall's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsApp State 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate App State and Marshall?
On a neutral field, SP+ has App State 7.9 points better (90th to 117th). PRIME also has App State ahead, by 6.1. Elo, which only sees results, has Marshall ahead (111th to 116th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedApp State 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
App State's offense ranks 96th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Marshall defense it faces ranks 118th in EPA per play allowed. Marshall's offense ranks 103rd against App State's 99th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is App State's passing game: 61st in adjusted EPA per pass, against Marshall's 116th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and App State's defense falls from 75th to 99th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAApp State 6–2
Who's more efficient, App State or Marshall?
App State is better throwing (47th in EPA per pass) than running (125th). Marshall's pass defense ranks 126th, so that's a mismatch. Marshall is better running (86th in EPA per rush) than throwing (103rd). App State's run defense ranks 80th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringApp State 2–0
Who scores more, App State or Marshall?
App State outscores FBS opponents by 1.9 a game, and Marshall is outscored by 9.6. App State's offense ranks 83rd in scoring, and the Marshall defense it faces ranks 120th in points allowed. Marshall's offense ranks 105th against App State's 68th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is App State's offense against Marshall's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseApp State 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
App State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 15th in explosive play rate, and Marshall's defense ranks 96th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Marshall has no clear edge here. Their best is success rate, 70th, against a defense ranked 67th in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseApp State 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
App State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 25th in interception rate, and Marshall's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (118th). That's a mismatch. Marshall's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 82nd in 3rd down conversions allowed, and App State's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (112th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontMarshall 8–4
Who wins up front?
Marshall has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Marshall ranks 48th and App State 130th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversApp State 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
App State is −0.1 in turnover margin a game and Marshall is −0.8. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for App State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentApp State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
App State has the more talented roster (85th in the 247Sports talent composite; Marshall is 97th). App State also plays further above their talent: −2.3 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Marshall's −8.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
App State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.5). Marshall is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9). Marshall's record is running 1.2 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is App State traveling?
It's App State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 2,119 miles, there and back, 131st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
App State wins
34–31Week 8
45–17Week 5App State beat James Madison 34–31 in Week 8. James Madison beat Marshall 45–17 in Week 5.Marshall wins
36–23Week 9
10–3Week 6Marshall beat Old Dominion 36–23 in Week 9. Old Dominion beat App State 10–3 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
App State at Marshall: questions people ask
App State vs. Marshall prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick App State, 55% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Marshall. App State's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 25th in interceptions per pass, against Marshall's ball security at 118th.
Where can I watch App State vs. Marshall, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of App State vs. Marshall?
SP+ projects App State 31–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for App State at Marshall?
DraftKings has App State −1.5, total 54.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the App State vs. Marshall series history?
App State leads 7–5. Last meeting: App State won 26–24 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in App State vs. Marshall?
App State: Malachi Singleton (2,156 passing yards), Jaquari Lewis (462 rushing yards) and Sam Pickett III (590 receiving yards). Marshall: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (1,080 passing yards), Judah Price (358 rushing yards) and Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw (397 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in App State at Marshall?
App State's is Malachi Singleton (2,156 passing yards this season); Marshall's is Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (1,080 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- App State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Marshall: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Southern at Georgia State: the numbers' pick
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.