Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayCoastal Carolina54% chance to win
- Coastal Carolina's big-play offense has the edge on Arkansas State's big-play defense. Coastal Carolina is above average (40th) in explosive play rate, and Arkansas State is bottom-20 (127th) in explosive plays allowed.
- Coastal Carolina's passing game has the edge on Arkansas State's pass defense. Coastal Carolina is middle of the pack (51st) in EPA per pass, and Arkansas State is bottom-20 (118th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Updated
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina
Projected score: Arkansas State 32, Coastal Carolina 31 (total 63).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Coastal Carolina by 2.1, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Brooks Stadium (SC)
- Line
- Coastal Carolina −1.5, total 50.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Tied 3–3
- Last meeting
- Coastal Carolina 27–17 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Arkansas State by 0.8 | 52% | 63 |
| PRIME | Coastal Carolina by 2.1 | 56% | |
| Elo | Coastal Carolina | 51% | |
| The line | Coastal Carolina −1.5 | 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Arkansas State or Coastal Carolina?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Arkansas State spread | Coastal Carolina spread | Over | Under | Arkansas State moneyline | Coastal Carolina moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 −112 | −1.5 −108 | 50.5 −118 | 50.5 −102 | −102 | −118 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 −120 | −1.5 −102 | 50.5 −114 | 50.5 −106 | −108 | −111 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +1 −108 | −1 −110 | 50.5 −118 | 50.5 −102 | −105 | −115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 −113 | −1.5 −107 | 50.5 −113 (best price) | 50.5 −107 | −104 | −114 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 −115 | −1.5 −105 | 50.5 −115 | 50.5 −105 | −105 | −115 |
| BetRivers | −0.5 −108 | +0.5 −115 (best price) | 51.5 −108 | 51.5 −115 (best price) | −108 | −114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Not posted | Not posted | 51.5 −105 | 51.5 −115 (best price) | −110 | −115 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 −110 (best price) | −1.5 −110 | 51 −110 | 51 −110 | +100 (best price) | −120 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Coastal Carolina ahead by a hair. Coastal Carolina's best matchup is their big-play offense, 40th in explosive play rate, against Arkansas State's big-play defense at 127th. Arkansas State's way back in is their takeaway defense, 4th in interceptions per pass, against Coastal Carolina's ball security at 120th.
Arkansas State with the ball
Coastal Carolina with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina played lately?
Arkansas State
2–3 in the last five.
- L 17–19 vs. UL Monroe Week 10
- W 38–32 vs. Georgia State Week 8
- W 23–13 at Southern Miss Week 7
- L 49–56 vs. South Alabama Week 6
- L 20–23 at Louisiana Week 5
Coastal Carolina
2–3 in the last five.
- L 8–21 vs. Old Dominion Week 10
- W 31–20 at Georgia State Week 9
- L 32–35 vs. App State Week 7
- W 27–21 at Marshall Week 6
- L 24–31 vs. Georgia Southern Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Coastal Carolina
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Arkansas State's and Coastal Carolina's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsArkansas State 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Arkansas State 3.3 points better (97th to 109th). PRIME also has Arkansas State ahead, by 0.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Arkansas State ahead (105th to 112th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedCoastal Carolina 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Arkansas State's offense ranks 62nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Coastal Carolina defense it faces ranks 92nd in EPA per play allowed. Coastal Carolina's offense ranks 98th against Arkansas State's 115th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Arkansas State's offense against Coastal Carolina's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Arkansas State's efficiency: 40th in adjusted success rate, against Coastal Carolina's 113th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPACoastal Carolina 5–3
Who's more efficient, Arkansas State or Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State is about as good throwing (61st in EPA per pass) as running (56th). Coastal Carolina is better throwing (56th in EPA per pass) than running (115th). Arkansas State's pass defense ranks 120th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Arkansas State or Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State outscores FBS opponents by 1.1 a game, and Coastal Carolina by 0.0. Arkansas State's offense ranks 73rd in scoring, and the Coastal Carolina defense it faces ranks 69th in points allowed. Coastal Carolina's offense ranks 93rd against Arkansas State's 84th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseArkansas State 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Arkansas State's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 21st in SUPLEX, and Coastal Carolina's defense ranks 113th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. Coastal Carolina's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 40th in explosive play rate, and Arkansas State's defense ranks 127th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseCoastal Carolina 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Arkansas State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 4th in interception rate, and Coastal Carolina's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (120th). That's a mismatch. Coastal Carolina's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 43rd in interception rate, and Arkansas State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (106th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontCoastal Carolina 7–4
Who wins up front?
Coastal Carolina has the better number in 7 of 11. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Arkansas State ranks 53rd and Coastal Carolina 126th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversArkansas State 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Arkansas State is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and Coastal Carolina is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Arkansas State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Coastal Carolina's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.7 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentArkansas State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Arkansas State has the more talented roster (91st in the 247Sports talent composite; Coastal Carolina is 106th). Arkansas State also plays further above their talent: −3.5 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Coastal Carolina's −4.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSArkansas State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Arkansas State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.8). Coastal Carolina is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.8). Coastal Carolina's record is 1.1 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Arkansas State traveling?
It's Arkansas State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,795 miles, there and back, 100th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Arkansas State wins
38–32Week 8
42–10Week 5
21–8Week 10
Arkansas State beat Georgia State 38–32 in Week 8. Georgia State beat Old Dominion 42–10 in Week 5. Old Dominion beat Coastal Carolina 21–8 in Week 10.Coastal Carolina wins
27–21Week 6
20–13Week 8
56–49Week 6Coastal Carolina beat Marshall 27–21 in Week 6. Marshall beat South Alabama 20–13 in Week 8. South Alabama beat Arkansas State 56–49 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: questions people ask
Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Coastal Carolina, 54% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Coastal Carolina's best matchup is their big-play offense, 40th in explosive play rate, against Arkansas State's big-play defense at 127th.
Where can I watch Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET at Brooks Stadium (SC). It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
SP+ projects Arkansas State 32–31. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina?
DraftKings has Coastal Carolina −1.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina series history?
It's tied 3–3. Last meeting: Coastal Carolina won 27–17 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State: Trey Owens (2,133 passing yards), Solomon Baggett (344 rushing yards) and Jaylen Bonelli (518 receiving yards). Coastal Carolina: Deuce Bailey (2,168 passing yards), Dominic Knicely (498 rushing yards) and Clayton Coppock (398 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State's is Trey Owens (2,133 passing yards this season); Coastal Carolina's is Deuce Bailey (2,168 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Arkansas State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Coastal Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisiana at UL Monroe: the numbers' pick
- James Madison at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Southern at Georgia State: the numbers' pick
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.