Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State Prediction, Week 11 2026
58% chance to win
- Georgia Southern's early-down offense has the edge on Georgia State's early-down defense. Georgia Southern is middle of the pack (72nd) in SUPLEX, and Georgia State is bottom-20 (121st) in SUPLEX allowed.
Updated
Georgia Southern at Georgia State
Projected score: Georgia Southern 32, Georgia State 30 (total 62).SP+: Georgia Southern by 1.9, 55% chance to win.PRIME: Georgia Southern by 2.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Center Parc Stadium
- Line
- Georgia Southern −5.5, total 56.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 55.5, up 1.
- Series
- Tied 6–6
- Last meeting
- Georgia Southern 41–24 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Georgia Southern by 1.9 | 55% | 62 |
| PRIME | Georgia Southern by 2.0 | 56% | |
| Elo | Georgia Southern | 60% | |
| The line | Georgia Southern −5.5 | 56.5, opened 55.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Georgia Southern or Georgia State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Georgia Southern spread | Georgia State spread | Over | Under | Georgia Southern moneyline | Georgia State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −5.5 −110 | +5.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | −205 (best price) | +170 |
| FanDuel | −5.5 −110 | +5.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | −205 (best price) | +168 |
| BetMGM | −5.5 −108 (best price) | +5.5 −110 | 56.5 −108 (best price) | 56.5 −110 (best price) | −210 | +175 |
| Caesars | −5.5 −112 | +5.5 −112 | 56.5 −112 | 56.5 −112 | −209 | +167 |
| ESPN BET | −5.5 −115 | +5.5 −105 (best price) | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | −215 | +180 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −5.5 −113 | +5.5 −110 | 56.5 −112 | 56.5 −112 | −215 | +170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −5.5 −110 | +5.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | −210 | +170 |
| Fanatics | −5.5 −110 | +5.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | −215 | +175 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State?
All three ratings favor Georgia Southern, by 2.0 points. Georgia Southern's best matchup is their ball security, 12th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Georgia State's takeaway defense at 78th. Georgia State's way back in is their offensive line, 17th in line yards per carry, against Georgia Southern's run-stopping front at 87th.
Georgia Southern with the ball
Georgia State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Georgia Southern and Georgia State played lately?
Georgia Southern
4–1 in the last five. Won 3 straight.
- W 49–13 vs. Marshall Week 10
- W 19–3 vs. App State Week 9
- W 23–15 at Old Dominion Week 7
- L 24–27 vs. James Madison Week 6
- W 31–24 at Coastal Carolina Week 5
Georgia State
2–3 in the last five.
- W 39–23 at App State Week 10
- L 20–31 vs. Coastal Carolina Week 9
- L 32–38 at Arkansas State Week 8
- L 22–49 at James Madison Week 7
- W 42–10 vs. Old Dominion Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Georgia Southern and Georgia State?
Georgia Southern
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Georgia State
- Cameran Brown (QB), hasn't played since Week 8 (166 pass attempts in 7 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Georgia Southern and Georgia State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Georgia Southern and Georgia State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Georgia Southern's and Georgia State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsGeorgia Southern 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Georgia Southern and Georgia State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia Southern 4.4 points better (94th to 105th). PRIME also has Georgia Southern ahead, by 4.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Georgia Southern ahead (66th to 93rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedGeorgia Southern 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Georgia Southern's offense ranks 45th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia State defense it faces ranks 68th in EPA per play allowed. Georgia State's offense ranks 53rd against Georgia Southern's 61st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia State's offensive line in the run game: 17th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Georgia Southern's 87th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Georgia Southern's defense falls from 30th to 61st in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAGeorgia State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Georgia Southern or Georgia State?
Georgia Southern is better throwing (38th in EPA per pass) than running (107th). Georgia State's pass defense ranks 57th. Georgia State is better throwing (21st in EPA per pass) than running (39th). Georgia Southern's pass defense ranks 68th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Georgia Southern or Georgia State?
Georgia Southern outscores FBS opponents by 6.9 a game, and Georgia State by 8.2. Georgia Southern's offense ranks 79th in scoring, and the Georgia State defense it faces ranks 82nd in points allowed. Georgia State's offense ranks 26th against Georgia Southern's 30th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseGeorgia State 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Georgia Southern's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 84th in explosive play rate, and Georgia State's defense ranks 133rd in explosive plays allowed. Georgia State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 22nd in explosive play rate, and Georgia Southern's defense ranks 57th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseGeorgia Southern 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Georgia Southern's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 73rd in interception rate, and Georgia State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (105th). Georgia State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 6th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Georgia Southern's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (66th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontGeorgia State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Georgia State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Georgia Southern ranks 27th and Georgia State 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversGeorgia Southern 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Georgia Southern is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Georgia State is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Georgia Southern. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Georgia Southern's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.4 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Georgia Southern has the more talented roster (78th in the 247Sports talent composite; Georgia State is 105th). Georgia Southern also plays further above their talent: −3.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Georgia State's −3.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSGeorgia Southern 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Georgia Southern is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+0.9). Georgia State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Georgia Southern traveling?
It's Georgia Southern's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 2,439 miles, there and back, 126th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Georgia Southern wins
31–24Week 5
31–20Week 9
Georgia Southern beat Coastal Carolina 31–24 in Week 5. Coastal Carolina beat Georgia State 31–20 in Week 9.Georgia State wins
39–23Week 10
34–31Week 8
27–24Week 6Georgia State beat App State 39–23 in Week 10. App State beat James Madison 34–31 in Week 8. James Madison beat Georgia Southern 27–24 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Georgia Southern at Georgia State: questions people ask
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Georgia Southern, 58% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Georgia Southern's best matchup is their ball security, 12th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Georgia State's takeaway defense at 78th.
Where can I watch Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Center Parc Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State?
SP+ projects Georgia Southern 32–30. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Georgia Southern at Georgia State?
DraftKings has Georgia Southern −5.5, total 56.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State series history?
It's tied 6–6. Last meeting: Georgia Southern won 41–24 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State?
Georgia Southern: Max Johnson (2,199 passing yards), David Mbadinga (273 rushing yards) and Alex Taylor (529 receiving yards). Georgia State: Cameran Brown (1,356 passing yards), Lanear McCrary Jr. (526 rushing yards) and Rodshaun Dorsey (476 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Georgia Southern at Georgia State?
Georgia Southern's is Max Johnson (2,199 passing yards this season); Georgia State's is Cameran Brown (1,356 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Georgia Southern at Georgia State?
Georgia State: Cameran Brown (QB) hasn't played since Week 8.
Keep going
- Georgia Southern: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Georgia State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisiana at UL Monroe: the numbers' pick
- James Madison at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.