Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayLouisiana Tech91% chance to win
- Louisiana Tech's pass defense should win its matchup. Louisiana Tech is top-10 (4th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Southern Miss is bottom-20 (132nd) in EPA per pass.
- Louisiana Tech's defense should hold up. Louisiana Tech is top-25 (14th) in EPA per play allowed, and Southern Miss is bottom-20 (128th) in EPA per play.
Updated
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech
Projected score: Southern Miss 19, Louisiana Tech 35 (total 54).SP+: Louisiana Tech by 15.9, 87% chance to win.PRIME: Louisiana Tech by 17.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Joe Aillet Stadium
- Line
- Louisiana Tech −17.5, total 55.5
- Line movement
- Opened Louisiana Tech −18.5; moved 1 point toward Southern Miss. Total opened 54.5, up 1.
- Series
- Southern Miss leads 20–13
- Last meeting
- Louisiana Tech 30–20 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisiana Tech by 15.9 | 87% | 54 |
| PRIME | Louisiana Tech by 17.3 | 89% | |
| Elo | Louisiana Tech | 92% | |
| The line | Louisiana Tech −17.5, opened −18.5 | 55.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Southern Miss or Louisiana Tech?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Southern Miss spread | Louisiana Tech spread | Over | Under | Southern Miss moneyline | Louisiana Tech moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +17.5 −112 | −17.5 −108 | 55.5 −102 | 55.5 −118 | +650 | −1000 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 −110 (best price) | −17.5 −110 | 54.5 −122 (best price) | 54.5 +100 | +720 (best price) | −1050 |
| BetMGM | +17 −105 | −17 −112 (best price) | 55.5 −102 | 55.5 −118 | +700 | −1000 |
| Caesars | +17.5 −114 | −17.5 −106 | 55 −107 | 55 −113 | +700 | −1200 |
| ESPN BET | +17.5 −115 | −17.5 −105 | 55.5 −105 | 55.5 −115 | +600 | −1000 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 −112 | −17.5 −112 | 55.5 −108 | 55.5 −114 (best price) | +600 | −1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 −110 (best price) | −17.5 −110 | 55.5 −110 | 55.5 −115 | +600 | −1000 |
| Fanatics | +17.5 −110 (best price) | −17.5 −110 | 55 −110 | 55 −110 | +650 | −950 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
All three ratings favor Louisiana Tech, by 17.3 points, and it isn't close. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is their pass defense, 4th in EPA per pass allowed, against Southern Miss' passing game at 132nd. Southern Miss' way back in is their pass rush, 26th in sack rate, against Louisiana Tech's pass protection at 103rd.
Southern Miss with the ball
Louisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana Tech with the ball
Louisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechLouisiana TechEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech played lately?
Southern Miss
2–3 in the last five.
- L 23–54 vs. James Madison Week 10
- W 35–21 at UL Monroe Week 9
- W 35–31 vs. Louisiana Week 8
- L 13–23 vs. Arkansas State Week 7
- L 34–55 at Troy Week 6
Louisiana Tech
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 41–17 at Troy Week 10
- W 35–20 at South Alabama Week 9
- W 26–0 vs. Old Dominion Week 8
- W 24–0 at UL Monroe Week 7
- W 32–31 vs. Louisiana Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Louisiana Tech
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Southern Miss' and Louisiana Tech's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsLouisiana Tech 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisiana Tech 13.4 points better (84th to 126th). PRIME also has Louisiana Tech ahead, by 14.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisiana Tech ahead (58th to 124th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedLouisiana Tech 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Southern Miss' offense ranks 128th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Louisiana Tech defense it faces ranks 14th in EPA per play allowed. Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 63rd against Southern Miss' 117th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against Southern Miss' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Louisiana Tech's passing game: 29th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Southern Miss' 102nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPALouisiana Tech 7–1
Who's more efficient, Southern Miss or Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss is better running (45th in EPA per rush) than throwing (125th). Louisiana Tech's run defense ranks 48th. Louisiana Tech is better throwing (15th in EPA per pass) than running (108th). Southern Miss' pass defense ranks 85th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringLouisiana Tech 2–0
Who scores more, Southern Miss or Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss is outscored by 7.2 a game, and Louisiana Tech by 13.2. Southern Miss' offense ranks 80th in scoring, and the Louisiana Tech defense it faces ranks 37th in points allowed. Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 31st against Southern Miss' 127th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against Southern Miss' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Southern Miss has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 50th, against a defense ranked 29th in yards per carry allowed. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 51st in 3rd down conversion rate, and Southern Miss' defense ranks 98th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseLouisiana Tech 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Southern Miss' defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 26th in sack rate, and Louisiana Tech's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (103rd). That's a mismatch. Louisiana Tech's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 46th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Southern Miss' offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (136th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Southern Miss ranks 7th and Louisiana Tech 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversLouisiana Tech 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Louisiana Tech is +1.2 in turnover margin a game and Southern Miss is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Louisiana Tech. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Louisiana Tech's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 2.3 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentSouthern Miss 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Southern Miss has the more talented roster (94th in the 247Sports talent composite; Louisiana Tech is 124th). But Louisiana Tech plays further above their talent: +4.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Southern Miss' −12.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSLouisiana Tech 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Southern Miss is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.6). Louisiana Tech is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.8). Louisiana Tech's record is running 1.8 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Southern Miss traveling?
It's Southern Miss' 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 1,885 miles, there and back, 134th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Southern Miss wins
35–31Week 8
21–14Week 3
24–20Week 4
34–26Week 6
24–10Week 1
66–28Week 10
35–24Week 7
25–24Week 8
36–19Week 3Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35–31 in Week 8. Louisiana beat UAB 21–14 in Week 3. UAB beat Navy 24–20 in Week 4. Navy beat Tulsa 34–26 in Week 6. Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24–10 in Week 1. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 66–28 in Week 10. Kansas State beat Kansas 35–24 in Week 7. Kansas beat Baylor 25–24 in Week 8. Baylor beat Louisiana Tech 36–19 in Week 3.Louisiana Tech wins
41–17Week 10
55–34Week 6Louisiana Tech beat Troy 41–17 in Week 10. Troy beat Southern Miss 55–34 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: questions people ask
Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Louisiana Tech, 91% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is their pass defense, 4th in EPA per pass allowed, against Southern Miss' passing game at 132nd.
Where can I watch Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET at Joe Aillet Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
SP+ projects Louisiana Tech 35–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech?
DraftKings has Louisiana Tech −17.5, total 55.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech series history?
Southern Miss leads 20–13. Last meeting: Louisiana Tech won 30–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss: Landy Lyddy (1,326 passing yards), Steven Robinson (782 rushing yards) and Mario Sanders II (698 receiving yards). Louisiana Tech: Blake Baker (1,504 passing yards), Andrew Burnette (385 rushing yards) and Jalen Mickens (628 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech?
Southern Miss' is Landy Lyddy (1,326 passing yards this season); Louisiana Tech's is Blake Baker (1,504 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Southern Miss: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisiana Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisiana at UL Monroe: the numbers' pick
- James Madison at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Southern at Georgia State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.