James Madison vs. UConn Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayJames Madison73% chance to win
- James Madison should keep their quarterback clean. James Madison is top-25 (14th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and UConn is bottom-20 (116th) in sack rate.
- James Madison should throw it. James Madison is top-25 (20th) in EPA per pass, and UConn is bottom-40 (111th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Updated
James Madison at UConn
Projected score: James Madison 34, UConn 26 (total 60).SP+: James Madison by 7.7, 71% chance to win.PRIME: James Madison by 3.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Pratt & Whitney Stadium
- Line
- James Madison −3.5, total 57.5
- Line movement
- Opened James Madison −1.5; moved 2 points toward James Madison. Total opened 56.5, up 1.
- Series
- James Madison leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- James Madison 44–6 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | James Madison by 7.7 | 71% | 60 |
| PRIME | James Madison by 3.1 | 59% | |
| Elo | James Madison | 88% | |
| The line | James Madison −3.5, opened −1.5 | 57.5, opened 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, James Madison or UConn?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | James Madison spread | UConn spread | Over | Under | James Madison moneyline | UConn moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −3.5 −105 | +3.5 −115 | 57.5 −112 | 57.5 −108 | −170 | +142 |
| FanDuel | −3.5 −104 | +3.5 −118 | 57.5 −115 | 57.5 −105 (best price) | −152 (best price) | +128 |
| BetMGM | −3.5 −102 (best price) | +3.5 −115 | 57.5 −110 (best price) | 57.5 −108 | −165 | +138 |
| Caesars | −3.5 −106 | +3.5 −114 (best price) | 57.5 −114 | 57.5 −106 | −170 | +140 |
| ESPN BET | −3.5 −105 | +3.5 −115 | 57.5 −115 | 57.5 −105 (best price) | −165 | +140 |
| BetRivers | −3.5 −107 | +3.5 −117 | 57.5 −114 | 57.5 −109 | −167 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −3.5 −105 | +3.5 −115 | 57.5 −110 (best price) | 57.5 −110 | −165 | +135 |
| Fanatics | −3.5 −105 | +3.5 −115 | 57.5 −110 (best price) | 57.5 −110 | −175 | +145 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide James Madison vs. UConn?
All three ratings favor James Madison, by 3.1 points. James Madison's best matchup is their pass protection, 14th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UConn's pass rush at 116th. UConn's way back in is their offensive line, 18th in line yards per carry, against James Madison's run-stopping front at 61st.
James Madison with the ball
UConn with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have James Madison and UConn played lately?
James Madison
3–2 in the last five.
- W 54–23 at Southern Miss Week 10
- L 21–24 vs. Troy Week 9
- L 31–34 at App State Week 8
- W 49–22 vs. Georgia State Week 7
- W 27–24 at Georgia Southern Week 6
UConn
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 21–38 vs. North Carolina Week 10
- L 26–35 at Air Force Week 9
- W 35–16 vs. Massachusetts Week 8
- W 34–20 at Temple Week 6
- L 41–42 vs. Syracuse Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for James Madison and UConn?
James Madison
- George Pettaway (RB), hasn't played since Week 8 (124 carries in 8 games before that)
UConn
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How James Madison and UConn compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; James Madison and UConn are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How James Madison's and UConn's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsJames Madison 7–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate James Madison and UConn?
On a neutral field, SP+ has James Madison 10.2 points better (29th to 67th). PRIME also has James Madison ahead, by 5.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has James Madison ahead (17th to 81st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedJames Madison 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
James Madison's offense ranks 29th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UConn defense it faces ranks 93rd in EPA per play allowed. UConn's offense ranks 66th against James Madison's 49th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against UConn's defense. The biggest edge on the board is James Madison's passing game: 20th in adjusted EPA per pass, against UConn's 111th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and James Madison's defense falls from 20th to 49th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAJames Madison 6–2
Who's more efficient, James Madison or UConn?
James Madison is about as good throwing (34th in EPA per pass) as running (39th). UConn is better running (17th in EPA per rush) than throwing (73rd). James Madison's run defense ranks 26th, so that's strength on strength.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringJames Madison 2–0
Who scores more, James Madison or UConn?
James Madison outscores FBS opponents by 21.3 a game, and UConn by 6.2. James Madison's offense ranks 7th in scoring, and the UConn defense it faces ranks 87th in points allowed. UConn's offense ranks 38th against James Madison's 27th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against UConn's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
James Madison's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 38th in success rate, and UConn's defense ranks 97th in success rate allowed. UConn has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 10th, against a defense ranked 29th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseJames Madison 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
James Madison's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 36th in sack rate, and UConn's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (126th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontJames Madison 8–4
Who wins up front?
James Madison has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where James Madison ranks 48th and UConn 118th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversJames Madison 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
James Madison is +0.2 in turnover margin a game and UConn is −0.2. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for James Madison. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentJames Madison 7–3
Which team has more talent?
UConn has the more talented roster (73rd in the 247Sports talent composite; James Madison is 101st). But James Madison plays further above their talent: +15.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to UConn's +1.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSJames Madison 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
James Madison is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.6). UConn is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−2.2). UConn's record is 2.2 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is James Madison traveling?
It's James Madison's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 8,361 miles, there and back, 26th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
James Madison wins
20–13Week 1
49–10Week 9
33–20Week 2
34–31Week 10
24–21Week 4
James Madison beat Liberty 20–13 in Week 1. Liberty beat Florida International 49–10 in Week 9. Florida International beat Buffalo 33–20 in Week 2. Buffalo beat Miami (OH) 34–31 in Week 10. Miami (OH) beat UConn 24–21 in Week 4.UConn wins
48–20Week 3
35–31Week 8
33–6Week 7
24–21Week 9UConn beat Southern Miss 48–20 in Week 3. Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35–31 in Week 8. Louisiana beat Troy 33–6 in Week 7. Troy beat James Madison 24–21 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
James Madison at UConn: questions people ask
James Madison vs. UConn prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick James Madison, 73% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. James Madison's best matchup is their pass protection, 14th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UConn's pass rush at 116th.
Where can I watch James Madison vs. UConn, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of James Madison vs. UConn?
SP+ projects James Madison 34–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for James Madison at UConn?
DraftKings has James Madison −3.5, total 57.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the James Madison vs. UConn series history?
James Madison leads 1–0. Last meeting: James Madison won 44–6 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in James Madison vs. UConn?
James Madison: Camden Coleman (1,815 passing yards), George Pettaway (824 rushing yards) and Corey Scott (524 receiving yards). UConn: Kalieb Osborne (2,102 passing yards), Cyncir Bowers (639 rushing yards) and Ryder Treadway (337 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in James Madison at UConn?
James Madison's is Camden Coleman (1,815 passing yards this season); UConn's is Kalieb Osborne (2,102 passing yards this season).
Who's out for James Madison at UConn?
James Madison: George Pettaway (RB) hasn't played since Week 8.
Keep going
- James Madison: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UConn: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisiana at UL Monroe: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Boston College at Notre Dame: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Southern at Georgia State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- The FBS independents: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.