Arizona State vs. UCF Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
54% chance to win
- UCF's run defense has the edge on Arizona State's run game. UCF is above average (26th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Arizona State is bottom-40 (109th) in EPA per rush.
- UCF's defense has the edge on Arizona State's offense. UCF is middle of the pack (54th) in EPA per play allowed, and Arizona State is bottom-20 (121st) in EPA per play.
Updated
Arizona State at UCF
Projected score: Arizona State 22, UCF 27 (total 49).SP+: UCF by 4.7, 63% chance to win.PRIME: UCF by 3.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- FBC Mortgage Stadium
- Weather
- 62°, fair, wind 9 mph
- Line
- UCF −3.5, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Opened UCF −2.5; moved 1 point toward UCF. Total opened 52.5, down 4.
- Series
- Arizona State leads 2–0
- Last meeting
- Arizona State 35–31 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UCF by 4.7 | 63% | 49 |
| PRIME | UCF by 3.1 | 59% | |
| Elo | Arizona State | 51% | |
| The line | UCF −3.5, opened −2.5 | 48.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Arizona State or UCF?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Arizona State spread | UCF spread | Over | Under | Arizona State moneyline | UCF moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5 −112 | −3.5 −108 | 48.5 −112 (best price) | 48.5 −108 | +142 | −170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 −120 | −3.5 +100 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +126 | −150 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −112 | +138 | −165 |
| Caesars | +3.5 −118 | −3.5 −103 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +143 | −170 |
| ESPN BET | +3.5 −110 (best price) | −3.5 −110 | 49.5 −115 | 49.5 −105 (best price) | +150 (best price) | −175 |
| BetRivers | +3 −106 | −3 −117 (best price) | 48.5 −117 | 48.5 −107 | +135 | −167 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 −120 | −3.5 +100 | 48.5 −115 | 48.5 −105 | +135 | −165 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 | 49 −110 | 49 −110 | +145 | −175 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Arizona State vs. UCF?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with UCF ahead by a hair. UCF's best matchup is their run defense, 26th in EPA per rush allowed, against Arizona State's run game at 109th. Arizona State's way back in is their run-stopping front, 20th in line yards allowed per carry, against UCF's offensive line at 125th.
Arizona State with the ball
UCF with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Arizona State and UCF played lately?
Arizona State
3–2 in the last five.
- W 20–10 vs. Colorado Week 10
- L 20–27 at BYU Week 9
- W 28–17 vs. Kansas State Week 8
- L 25–53 at Texas Tech Week 7
- W 30–12 vs. Hawai'i Week 6
UCF
2–3 in the last five.
- W 33–32 at Kansas Week 10
- L 9–41 vs. Baylor Week 9
- W 39–31 vs. BYU Week 8
- L 28–42 at Oklahoma State Week 6
- L 17–27 at Houston Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Arizona State and UCF?
Arizona State
- Lyrik Rawls (#2), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Wade Helton (#64), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Uriah Neloms (#81), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Harry Hassmann (#89), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jason Brown Jr. (#22), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Cutter Boley (QB), hasn't played since Week 8 (172 pass attempts in 7 games before that)
UCF
- DJ Bell (#5), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Demari Henderson (DB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Keyone Jenkins (QB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kahmel Johnson (#14), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Tyler Gibson (#75), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Lewis Carter (#20), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jacob Maiava (#55), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Arizona State and UCF compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Arizona State and UCF are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Arizona State's and UCF's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsUCF 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Arizona State and UCF?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UCF 2.2 points better (56th to 62nd). PRIME also has UCF ahead, by 0.6. Elo, which only sees results, has Arizona State ahead (73rd to 82nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Arizona State's offense ranks 121st in adjusted EPA per play, and the UCF defense it faces ranks 54th in EPA per play allowed. UCF's offense ranks 77th against Arizona State's 51st-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. Adjust for opponents and UCF's offense climbs from 105th to 77th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAArizona State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Arizona State or UCF?
Arizona State is better throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) than running (115th). UCF's pass defense ranks 85th. UCF is better throwing (93rd in EPA per pass) than running (111th). Arizona State's pass defense ranks 50th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringUCF 2–0
Who scores more, Arizona State or UCF?
Arizona State outscores FBS opponents by 1.1 a game, and UCF by 4.1. Arizona State's offense ranks 68th in scoring, and the UCF defense it faces ranks 79th in points allowed. UCF's offense ranks 55th against Arizona State's 94th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UCF's offense against Arizona State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Arizona State's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 39th in SUPLEX, and UCF's defense ranks 74th in SUPLEX allowed. UCF has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 67th, against a defense ranked 58th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseArizona State 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Arizona State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 35th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and UCF's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (108th). That's a mismatch. UCF's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 19th in yards per carry allowed, and Arizona State's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (69th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontArizona State 10–2
Who wins up front?
Arizona State has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Arizona State ranks 32nd and UCF 87th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversUCF 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
UCF is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Arizona State is −0.2. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for UCF. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UCF's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentArizona State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Arizona State has the more talented roster (45th in the 247Sports talent composite; UCF is 66th). But UCF plays further above their talent: +3.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Arizona State's −1.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyUCF 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Arizona State's roster is valued at $20.0M, UCF's at $18.7M. Dollar for dollar, UCF plays better: +0.8 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −2.9 for Arizona State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Arizona State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.7). UCF is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Arizona State traveling?
It's Arizona State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 18,174 miles, there and back, 2nd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Arizona State wins
24–17Week 3
25–24Week 8
41–9Week 9
Arizona State beat Kansas 24–17 in Week 3. Kansas beat Baylor 25–24 in Week 8. Baylor beat UCF 41–9 in Week 9.UCF wins
39–31Week 8
27–20Week 9UCF beat BYU 39–31 in Week 8. BYU beat Arizona State 27–20 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Arizona State at UCF: questions people ask
Arizona State vs. UCF prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick UCF, 54% chance to win. PRIME has UCF; Elo has Arizona State. UCF's best matchup is their run defense, 26th in EPA per rush allowed, against Arizona State's run game at 109th.
Where can I watch Arizona State vs. UCF, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at FBC Mortgage Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Arizona State vs. UCF?
SP+ projects UCF 27–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Arizona State at UCF?
DraftKings has UCF −3.5, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Arizona State vs. UCF series history?
Arizona State leads 2–0. Last meeting: Arizona State won 35–31 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Arizona State vs. UCF?
Arizona State: Cutter Boley (1,372 passing yards), Cardae Mack (600 rushing yards) and Reed Harris (907 receiving yards). UCF: Keyone Jenkins (1,197 passing yards), Duke Watson (562 rushing yards) and Joshua Derry (581 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Arizona State at UCF?
Arizona State's is Cutter Boley (1,372 passing yards this season); UCF's is Keyone Jenkins (1,197 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Arizona State at UCF?
Arizona State: Cutter Boley (QB) hasn't played since Week 8.
Keep going
- Arizona State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UCF: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Kansas State at TCU: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.