Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayIowa State60% chance to win
- Iowa State's big-play offense has the edge on Cincinnati's big-play defense. Iowa State is above average (34th) in explosive play rate, and Cincinnati is bottom-20 (130th) in explosive plays allowed.
- Iowa State's passing game has the edge on Cincinnati's pass defense. Iowa State is middle of the pack (69th) in EPA per pass, and Cincinnati is bottom-20 (128th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Updated
Cincinnati at Iowa State
Projected score: Cincinnati 32, Iowa State 27 (total 59).SP+: Cincinnati by 5.4, 65% chance to win.PRIME: Iowa State by 2.3, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- TNT
- Where
- Jack Trice Stadium
- Weather
- 42°, wind 6 mph
- Line
- Iowa State −3, total 60.5
- Line movement
- Opened Iowa State −1.5; moved 1.5 points toward Iowa State.
- Series
- Iowa State leads 2–1
- Last meeting
- Cincinnati 38–30 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Cincinnati by 5.4 | 65% | 59 |
| PRIME | Iowa State by 2.3 | 57% | |
| Elo | Iowa State | 63% | |
| The line | Iowa State −3, opened −1.5 | 60.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Cincinnati or Iowa State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Cincinnati spread | Iowa State spread | Over | Under | Cincinnati moneyline | Iowa State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 −108 | −3 −112 | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | +130 (best price) | −155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 −120 (best price) | −3.5 +100 | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | +125 | −150 |
| BetMGM | +3 −108 | −3 −112 | 60.5 −108 | 60.5 −110 | +125 | −150 |
| Caesars | +3 −109 | −3 −110 | 60.5 −112 | 60.5 −108 | +125 | −148 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | +3.5 −120 (best price) | −3.5 +100 | 59.5 −110 (best price) | 59.5 −110 | +130 (best price) | −150 |
| BetRivers | +3 −121 | −3 −104 | 59.5 −113 | 59.5 −110 | +120 | −150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | −2.5 −120 (best price) | 59.5 −110 (best price) | 59.5 −110 | +120 | −150 |
| Fanatics | +3 −110 | −3 −110 | 61 −110 | 61 −110 (best price) | +125 | −150 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Cincinnati vs. Iowa State?
All three ratings favor Iowa State, by 2.3 points. Iowa State's best matchup is their big-play offense, 34th in explosive play rate, against Cincinnati's big-play defense at 130th. Cincinnati's way back in is their offense, 14th in yards per play, against Iowa State's defense at 120th.
Cincinnati with the ball
Iowa State with the ball
Iowa StateIowa StateIowa StateIowa StateIowa StateIowa StateIowa StateEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Cincinnati and Iowa State played lately?
Cincinnati
1–4 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 24–31 at Houston Week 10
- L 25–49 vs. Utah Week 9
- W 37–24 vs. Texas Tech Week 8
- L 42–45 at West Virginia Week 7
- L 7–34 at Arizona Week 5
Iowa State
2–3 in the last five.
- L 31–42 at Baylor Week 10
- W 51–49 vs. Oklahoma State Week 9
- L 3–39 at Arizona Week 8
- L 10–24 at BYU Week 6
- W 45–42 vs. West Virginia Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Cincinnati and Iowa State?
Cincinnati
- Simeon Coleman (LB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Montay Weedon (#44), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Grant Edgington (#78), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Devyn Zahursky (#83), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- DaMari Witherspoon (#88), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Taran Tyo (#77), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Iowa State
- Keyon Washington (#1), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Connor Moberly (QB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Beni Ngoyi (CB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ka'Mori Moore (#95), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Cincinnati and Iowa State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Cincinnati and Iowa State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Cincinnati's and Iowa State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Cincinnati and Iowa State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Cincinnati 7.9 points better (49th to 76th). PRIME also has Cincinnati ahead, by 0.2. Elo, which only sees results, has Iowa State ahead (56th to 63rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedCincinnati 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Cincinnati's offense ranks 34th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Iowa State defense it faces ranks 108th in EPA per play allowed. Iowa State's offense ranks 51st against Cincinnati's 98th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Cincinnati's backs in the open field: 4th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Iowa State's 121st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Cincinnati's defense climbs from 124th to 98th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Cincinnati or Iowa State?
Cincinnati is about as good throwing (30th in EPA per pass) as running (22nd). Iowa State is better running (45th in EPA per rush) than throwing (77th). Cincinnati's run defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Cincinnati has the edge: their offense ranks 21st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 61st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Cincinnati or Iowa State?
Cincinnati outscores FBS opponents by 3.6 a game, and Iowa State by 0.3. Cincinnati's offense ranks 35th in scoring, and the Iowa State defense it faces ranks 104th in points allowed. Iowa State's offense ranks 62nd against Cincinnati's 109th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseCincinnati 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Cincinnati's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 2nd in yards per carry, and Iowa State's defense ranks 102nd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Iowa State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 34th in explosive play rate, and Cincinnati's defense ranks 130th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseIowa State 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontCincinnati 8–3
Who wins up front?
Cincinnati has the better number in 8 of 11. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Cincinnati ranks 18th and Iowa State 89th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversCincinnati 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Cincinnati is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and Iowa State is +0.2. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Cincinnati. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Iowa State's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentIowa State 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Iowa State has the more talented roster (68th in the 247Sports talent composite; Cincinnati is 77th). But Cincinnati plays further above their talent: +8.4 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Iowa State's −1.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyCincinnati 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Iowa State's roster is valued at $20.8M, Cincinnati's at $19.1M. Dollar for dollar, Cincinnati plays better: +2.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −7.2 for Iowa State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSCincinnati 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Cincinnati is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.4). Iowa State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.0).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Cincinnati traveling?
It's Cincinnati's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,422 miles, there and back, 51st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Cincinnati wins
37–24Week 8
34–26Week 9
39–3Week 8Cincinnati beat Texas Tech 37–24 in Week 8. Texas Tech beat Arizona 34–26 in Week 9. Arizona beat Iowa State 39–3 in Week 8.Iowa State wins
45–42Week 5
45–42Week 7Iowa State beat West Virginia 45–42 in Week 5. West Virginia beat Cincinnati 45–42 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Cincinnati at Iowa State: questions people ask
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Iowa State, 60% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Iowa State's best matchup is their big-play offense, 34th in explosive play rate, against Cincinnati's big-play defense at 130th.
Where can I watch Cincinnati vs. Iowa State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium. It's on TNT.
What's the projected score of Cincinnati vs. Iowa State?
SP+ projects Cincinnati 32–27. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Cincinnati at Iowa State?
DraftKings has Iowa State −3, total 60.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Cincinnati vs. Iowa State series history?
Iowa State leads 2–1. Last meeting: Cincinnati won 38–30 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Cincinnati vs. Iowa State?
Cincinnati: JC French (1,990 passing yards), Cole Tabb (812 rushing yards) and JaVonnie Gibson (515 receiving yards). Iowa State: Jaylen Raynor (1,672 passing yards), Aiden Flora (1,119 rushing yards) and Jamal Polite Jr. (321 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Cincinnati at Iowa State?
Cincinnati's is JC French (1,990 passing yards this season); Iowa State's is Jaylen Raynor (1,672 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Cincinnati: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Iowa State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Kansas State at TCU: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Arizona State at UCF: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.