Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayTCU76% chance to win
- TCU's defense should win on early downs. TCU is top-25 (17th) in SUPLEX allowed, and Kansas State is middle of the pack (80th) in SUPLEX.
Kansas State is without QB Avery Johnson (1,301 passing yards). Kansas State has played 3 games without Johnson and lost all 3 by 17 (they won by 16 ppg with him). The ratings have mostly caught up to that, so he barely moves the needle now.
Updated
Kansas State at TCU
Projected score: Kansas State 21, TCU 24 (total 45).SP+: TCU by 2.3, 57% chance to win.PRIME: TCU by 10.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Weather
- 65°, wind 8 mph
- Line
- TCU −10, total 45.5
- Line movement
- Opened TCU −9.5; moved 0.5 points toward TCU.
- Series
- Kansas State leads 11–8
- Last meeting
- Kansas State 41–28 in 2025
- Kansas State injuries
- Johnson (QB), out; Jacob Knuth (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | TCU by 2.3 | 57% | 45 |
| PRIME | TCU by 10.0 | 76% | |
| Elo | TCU | 77% | |
| The line | TCU −10, opened −9.5 | 45.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Kansas State or TCU?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Kansas State spread | TCU spread | Over | Under | Kansas State moneyline | TCU moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +10 −108 | −10 −112 | 45.5 −105 | 45.5 −115 | +310 | −395 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 −110 (best price) | −10.5 −110 | 45.5 −105 | 45.5 −115 | +320 (best price) | −410 |
| BetMGM | +10 −108 | −10 −112 | 45.5 −105 | 45.5 −112 (best price) | +320 (best price) | −400 |
| Caesars | +10 −110 | −10 −109 (best price) | 45.5 −108 | 45.5 −113 | +295 | −380 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | +10.5 −110 (best price) | −10.5 −110 | 44.5 −115 (best price) | 44.5 −105 | +320 (best price) | −425 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 −113 | −10.5 −110 | 45.5 −108 | 45.5 −115 | +310 | −420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 −110 (best price) | −10.5 −110 | 45.5 −105 | 45.5 −115 | +300 | −425 |
| Fanatics | +10 −110 | −10 −110 | 45.5 −105 | 45.5 −115 | +310 | −400 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Kansas State vs. TCU?
All three ratings favor TCU, by 10.0 points. TCU's best matchup is their ball security, 67th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Kansas State's takeaway defense at 131st. Kansas State's way back in is their pass rush, 23rd in sack rate, against TCU's pass protection at 97th. We left out the edges built on Johnson, who's out.
Kansas State with the ball
TCUTCUTCUTCUTCUTCUTCU with the ball
TCUTCUEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Kansas State and TCU played lately?
Kansas State
1–4 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 28–66 vs. Oklahoma State Week 10
- L 24–27 at Colorado Week 9
- L 17–28 at Arizona State Week 8
- W 35–24 vs. Kansas Week 7
- L 16–35 vs. Houston Week 6
TCU
2–3 in the last five.
- L 28–29 at Arizona Week 10
- W 22–16 vs. Kansas Week 9
- L 20–24 vs. West Virginia Week 8
- W 17–6 at Baylor Week 7
- L 10–17 vs. BYU Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Kansas State and TCU?
Kansas State
- Johnson (QB), out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7). Hurt after a long run in the first half of the Oct. 17 win over Kansas; missed the Oct. 24 game at Arizona State. Collin Klein said Oct. 26 he's day-to-day and gave no timeline (Yahoo Sports, SI). The Big 12 report lists him out for Colorado. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Jacob Knuth (QB), out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7). The backup who ran the offense at Arizona State (9 carries, 44 yards, per SI). The Big 12 report moved him from doubtful to out for Colorado (update 2, Oct. 31); no injury detail found. (as of Oct 31, 2026)
- Koy Beasley (#0), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Sawyer Schilke (#26), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Lawson McGraw (#87), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Eli Jackson (#88), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
TCU
- Jon Denman (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Julius Simms (#7), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Terry Shelton (#15), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Devondre McGee (#17), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Cade Bennett (#60), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Keagan Cunningham (#83), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Cooper Reid (#84), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Braden Bach (#89), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Jeremy Payne (RB), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Kansas State and TCU compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kansas State and TCU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Kansas State's and TCU's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsTCU 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kansas State and TCU?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Kansas State 0.2 points better (39th to 41st). PRIME has TCU by 7.5 instead. The two ratings split on Kansas State's defense: 45th in SP+, 77th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has TCU ahead (47th to 76th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Kansas State's offense ranks 76th in adjusted EPA per play, and the TCU defense it faces ranks 8th in EPA per play allowed. TCU's offense ranks 103rd against Kansas State's 114th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is TCU's big plays: 107th in adjusted explosiveness, against Kansas State's 137th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPATCU 5–3
Who's more efficient, Kansas State or TCU?
Kansas State is better running (56th in EPA per rush) than throwing (88th). TCU's run defense ranks 5th, so the defense has the better of it. TCU is better throwing (73rd in EPA per pass) than running (126th). Kansas State's pass defense ranks 81st. On third down, TCU has the edge: their offense ranks 47th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 107th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Kansas State or TCU?
Kansas State outscores FBS opponents by 4.5 a game, and TCU by 8.0. Kansas State's offense ranks 47th in scoring, and the TCU defense it faces ranks 12th in points allowed. TCU's offense ranks 100th against Kansas State's 89th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseKansas State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Kansas State has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 7th, against a defense ranked 22nd in 3rd down conversions allowed. TCU has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 38th, against a defense ranked 57th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseTCU 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Kansas State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 23rd in sack rate, and TCU's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (97th). That's a mismatch. TCU's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 16th in explosive plays allowed, and Kansas State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (122nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontKansas State 9–3
Who wins up front?
Kansas State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Kansas State ranks 11th and TCU 112th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversKansas State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Kansas State is −0.3 a game and TCU −0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
TCU has the more talented roster (39th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kansas State is 47th). But Kansas State plays further above their talent: +5.3 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to TCU's +4.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyTCU 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Kansas State's roster is valued at $21.9M, TCU's at $20.1M. Dollar for dollar, TCU plays better: +3.3 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +1.7 for Kansas State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Kansas State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−2.4). TCU is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.6). Kansas State's record is 2.4 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Kansas State traveling?
It's Kansas State's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,005 miles, there and back, 74th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Kansas State wins
35–24Week 7
25–24Week 8
41–9Week 9
21–13Week 4Kansas State beat Kansas 35–24 in Week 7. Kansas beat Baylor 25–24 in Week 8. Baylor beat UCF 41–9 in Week 9. UCF beat TCU 21–13 in Week 4.TCU wins
17–6Week 755–19Week 5
28–17Week 8TCU beat Baylor 17–6 in Week 7. Baylor beat Arizona State 55–19 in Week 5. Arizona State beat Kansas State 28–17 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Kansas State at TCU: questions people ask
Kansas State vs. TCU prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick TCU, 76% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. TCU's best matchup is their ball security, 67th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Kansas State's takeaway defense at 131st.
Where can I watch Kansas State vs. TCU, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Kansas State vs. TCU?
SP+ projects TCU 24–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Kansas State at TCU?
DraftKings has TCU −10, total 45.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Kansas State vs. TCU series history?
Kansas State leads 11–8. Last meeting: Kansas State won 41–28 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Kansas State vs. TCU?
Kansas State: Johnson (1,301 passing yards), Rodney Fields Jr. (574 rushing yards) and Jaron Tibbs (429 receiving yards). TCU: Jaden Craig (2,458 passing yards), Jeremy Payne (382 rushing yards) and Kari Ashley (658 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Kansas State at TCU?
Kansas State's is Johnson (1,301 passing yards this season); TCU's is Jaden Craig (2,458 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Kansas State at TCU?
Kansas State: Johnson (QB), out; Jacob Knuth (QB), out.
Keep going
- Kansas State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- TCU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Arizona State at UCF: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Daily collegefootball chartsin your inbox.
The best charts from the site, by email. Free. Unsubscribe whenever.
Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.